The media seem to be having a little trouble coming up with the proper angle to hype Super Bowl XLIV. They tried to tie the game to the recovery of a traumatized city. Nah, the Big Easy will be fine. How'bout the possibilty of Peyton Manning attaining the title "The Greatest". That is so 2007.
They even explored the emotional conflict of an aging Ex-QB who has to root against either his team or his son. For Chrissakes! It's his SON.
Need an angle to uniquely define the 2010 Super Bowl? Try this: SB XLIV is the first Super Bowl to feature two 4000 yard passers. May the shock jocks and talking heads forgive us for focusing on the game, but that's what we do. On to the particulars.
When the Saints have the ball
A lot of fans, even some experts, think that the Saints made it to the Super Bowl strictly on the talent of Drew Brees, the most accurate passer in history. That is true to a point - the Saints certainly wouldn't be here without him - but this is a multi-faceted offense and Drew gets a lot of support from the running game and a creative coaching staff. In fact, the Saints run the ball a full 47% of the time. And why not, when their stable of running backs churn out 4.5 yards/rush. Those numbers compare favorably with the Colts' defense, which allows over 4 yards per carry. We think the Saints are going to get their rushing yardage. It's not like the Colts can stack the line with Brees back there.
If the Saints do face a challenge on offense it's more likely to occur in the passing game. The Colts D absolutely refuses to give up the big play to the passing game. It's not about incompletions because the Colts give up a 63% completion rate, slightly above the league norm. Instead, the Colts philosophy is to limit the damage done by completions. They essentially force the offense to play in front of their secondary, yielding a league low 9.5 yards per catch. That could be frustrating to a Saint team that is used to gaining 12 yards/completion. In the last game these two teams played (in Indianapolis, 2007) Drew Brees was on course to set the dubious shortest yards/completion record well into the 4th quarter. We don't expect that to happen again but the Saints big receivers will need to muscle their way to a few 1st downs.
The biggest concern for Saints bettors should be fumbles. The Saints do it more than 27 other teams. It's a bit of a testimonial that New Orleans could win so many games during the regular season while losing the turnover battle. That's not a characteristic that can carry over into the Super Bowl.
In general, we expect to see some long drives by the Saints, aided by a strong rushing game and some tough conversions on short catch and run plays. Brees' accuracy will be on display but these are the kinds of drives that can eat up a lot of time before they sputter out on sacks, penalties or blown up plays, or those dreaded fumbles. We could see a lot of FG attempts from the Saints young kicker Garrett Hartley, but if the Saints are to win this game Sean Payton will have to pull out a play from his back pocket and turn those 3's into 7's.
When the Colts have the ball
A lot of fans, even some experts, think that the Colts made it to the Super Bowl strictly on the talent of Peyton Manning, the greatest quarterback in history. Those fans are correct. The entire Colts offense is built around him. Nobody other than Manning could gain a lousy yard in this system. Ask Curtis Painter.
In many ways, the Colts pass attack is conventional. It's not particularly tricky, we've seen it all before, it's just that we've never seen it all in every game. Every route known to man, at any time, time and again. Manning can throw any pass in the book. The Colts provide Manning with the best protection in the league and he responds with "routine" 300 yard passing games.
The Saints have two good cornerbacks in Greer and Porter, which accounts for a low completion percentage (57%). Because of that, most teams choose to attack the middle of field against the Saints. It's a strategy that has its rewards, but one that increases the chances of an interception. We saw it in the NFC Championship as Favre ate up chunks of yardage but gave up two critical INTs between the hashes. With Dallas Clark in the lineup - a TE that no LB in the league can run with - we have to expect the Colts to exploit the middle. The question is, how many picks will the Saints come up with?
While Manning is indeed the best QB the game has ever seen, he throws INTs almost at the rate of mortal QBs. Opponents pick off one out of every 35 passes Peyton throws. The Saints rank 3rd in picks, collecting one out every 22 passes. We have to expect the Saints to intercept at least one pass on Sunday, and if Manning gets pass happy and throws over 45 times we could see multiple picks.
We haven't discussed the Colts running game because it's mostly ineffective. They do manage to handoff the ball 24 times a game, but at just 3.5 yards a crack its almost as if they use the run to position the ball at a hashmark so they can run a certain pass pattern. With most fumbles occuring on sacks and running plays it's easy to see why the Colts fumble the fewest times in the league.
Special Teams
We don't talk much about FGs because kickers are entirely unpredictable. We think the Saints will have to rely on their kicker more. That's not good. The Saints have the better return team with Bush fielding punts and Roby returning kicks. Both players have made an impact in the playoffs and the Colts have had their problems covering kicks. The Saints are even worse in coverage but the Colts don't scare anybody with their returns. We give the Saints an advantage here.
The flow of the game
As we mentioned before, we expect time consuming drives by the Saints, featuring short passes and tough running. The Colts will attack downfield more often, trying to score on every play, taking a break to pick up a first down as needed. Brees is more likely to be sacked, but we don't see consistent pressure on either QB, nor do we see either team attempting to create pressure with excessive blitzing. It should make for a high scorer, as the oddsmakers have indicated. Otherwise, it's time of possession to the Saints, yards per play to the Colts; higher completion percentage to Brees, yardage to Manning; return yards to the Saints, sacks to the Colts. [EDITOR'S NOTE: All 6 projections turned out to be accurate] Ultimately, the key to the game could be the number of fumble recoveries by the Colts vs. number of picks by the Saints. [EDITOR'S NOTE: Colt fumble recoveries = 0, Saints picks = 1]
It may sound weird to say this about a team that took a record 43 seasons to reach their first championship game, but the Saints could win this baby straight up. Technically, the Colts are the home team in Super Bowl XLIV but we know for a fact that New Orleanians are buying up tickets all over the country, including some of the Colts' allotment. With most of America and the crowd pulling for the underdog this could look a lot like a real Saints home game. That won't hurt the Colts none - they are 7-1 ATS on the road this season - but it could provide an extra boost of adrenaline for the boys with the Fleur-de-lis on their helmets. Maybe they'll get off to a fast start. We feel pretty good about hitting the nice, 6 point spread when it became available so lets up the ante and call it a Full, three chip play on the live dog.
