GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2011 Season
Games of Week 06




content below posted 02:30MON17OCT11 cst

Plays for MNF, October 17th

This is the first time this year we are going with a straight play on the Total, going with the OVER 42 1/2 points. The truth is, the system picks the Jets to win, but it says to play the Fins and the points. It's not something we like to do. We take points a lot, but it doen't mean we want to use them. Taking the OVER is our way of sidestepping the issue and still trusting in the system.

42 1/2 points is actually below the league norm this year. Combined scoring has gone up regularly over the years, from under 40 points in 2000 to over 45 points now. In taking the OVER, we're predicting a regular scoring game, not necessarily a high scoring one. We can't be sure about either of these teams because of their records, but the stats show that they give up 25 and 26 points/game. Even though the Fins in particular are scoring challenged, they should be able to contribute to the scoring.

Call it a minimum play on the Total, and good luck to both teams.

 

Jets/Dolphins
OVER 42 1/2

Jets 28 Fins 23
Computer Projection


MISS: Jets 24 Dolphins 6

content below posted 18:00SUN16OCT11 cst

Plays for SNF, October 16th

We don't like to play Teasers but these are two losing teams and every snap is an adventure. Very hard to predict. Besides, it is the only game in town and it is Sunday Nite Football, and we are volume bettors so what th'heck. We do have to hit both bets to win - like a Parlay - but we get to add 6 points to each bet. Hence, Chicago and the points and the low total.

Expect the Bears to do a lot of passing and the Vikes to do a lot of running, and we should get some nice returns from Hester. Depite the computer's projection these are evenly matched teams and, as we said, they are both struggling. The field may be rainy or wet and it may be a little windy at times but we don't feel it'll hurt the scoring, might help it. If Urlacher plays like he did last week the OVER should be a cinch. Call it a minimum play on a Teaser.

 

Teaser:
Bears +3 1/2
&
Bears/Vikes
OVER 35

Bears 27 Vikings 21
Computer Projection


HIT: Bears 39 Vikings 10

content below posted 18:30SAT15OCT11 cst

Plays for Sunday, October 16th

 

Panthers +3 1/2

Pants 25 Falcs 25
Computer BEST BET


MISS: Falcs 31 Pants 17

Last year if we suggested that the Pants might beat the Falcons it would've been crazy. This year, well it's still crazy but not put-him-out-of-his-misery crazy. Seriously, we like the fact that Carolina got their man at QB. The kid performs like a veteran most of the time. Our computer projects a good day for him. Last week, Rodgers exploited a pass D that is now ranked in the lower 3rd of the league, Newton will need to do the same. It's pass vs. run in this one. The Falcons have shown they have the plays when they get close to the goal line, let's hope the Pants don't squander any opportunitys.

Just as you would expect, the Colts rank at or near the bottom in every category. The Bengal's O isn't any great shakes either, but at least they go in the right direction. It's the Bengal's defense that should make the difference. They rank 3rd in our standings and they'll be the only D out there. We might get some help in punt returns, too. With that defense at home and against the Colts, let's up our bet to a lite, two chip play.

 

Bengals -6 1/2

Bengals 27 Colts 14
Computer BEST BET


HIT: Bengals 27 Colts 17

 

Redkins +3

Redkins 25 Eagles 19
Computer BEST BET


MISS: Eags 20 Redskins 13

This should be an interesting game. On one hand, the Skins should be moving the ball slowly but consistently while on the other, the Eagles should be interrupting periods of ineffectivenes with terrific big plays. The Eagles have been known to swoon in the fourth quarter so maybe that Redskins running game will come in handy.

This one is not a GRIDLINE Best Bet but we like it when the system covers big spreads. This could be a case of Best vs. Worst, a case where we feel that in the NFL the best team is better by 17pts, and more at home. It could be a little windy by game time but Rogers throws pretty hard so we'll expect those slant passes to be there.

 

Packers -14

Pack 33 Rams 17
Computer Projecton


HIT: Packers 24 Rams 3

It looks like this might be a pretty close game with the Giants scoring mostly through the air while the Bills get it done on the ground. Of all the Noon games, Buffalo shows the best running game on our sheet. That might even be a bigger factor if the wind kicks up.

 

Bills +3 1/2

Bills 32 Giants 28
Computer BEST BET


HIT: Giants 27 Bills 24

 

Patriots -6

Pats 34 Cows 24
Computer BEST BET


MISS: Pats 20 Cowboys 16

This one just popped up as a Best Bet when our service lowered the spread a half-point to 6. It really doesn't matter, because we were going to put a chip down on them anyway. We're still happy with the extra half-point.

These two teams look a lot like they always have. With all that offense (the O/U is 55) you would expect both teams to be staring at the goal line on several occasions. The Patriots this year have shown an ability to score TDs in the red zone. The Cowboys are more known for winning by field goals, winning one game in which they scored 6 FGs alone. It looks like both teams will have the same amount of yardage, this one's about converting yards to points.







Good Luck Everyone!



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