This could be the worst looking pick we've seen all year from the computer system. The forecast shows the Eags gaining fully 160 yards more than the Bears (500 total yards), and it ranks the Eags higher in virtually all categories. Philly is healthy and at home, and the weather is perfect. Everything points to a rout by the Eagles.

A couple of things have to happen for the Bears to stay in this game. First, they have to get turnovers. We've often said that you can't predict turnovers but the system does, in fact, assign a small value to them. This value got magnified because the Eagles are among the most turnoveringest teams in the league. And B) break Forte free. We're not talking about a good, consistent running game. We're talking about an 80-yard scamper. The Eags only give up an average amount rushing but that's because most teams turn it into a passing contest. Per carry, the Eags give up the 28th most yards in the league. Do what you have to do to make them play an honest defense and then hand the ball off.

Maybe Vick got hold of some bad bourbon last night. Keep them in front of you, Bears, we're pullin' for ya. Of course, it doesn't mean we have to bet a lot.

We talk all the time about that Ravens defense, they rank from 1-3 in almost all of the categories we track. But while they rank 3rd against the pass, the Steelers rank 1st. And we're not sure who can pass against the Ravens, but if anybody can do it, the Steelers can. We know the Pats can't pass against the Steelers, maybe a team like the Pack or Saints could, but the Ravens? Their passing game is more serviceable than sophisticated, and even then somebody appears to have left the down-and-out out of their playbook. This game - this pick - is about passing. We expect the Steelers to be much more efficient there.

It's going to cost us 26 to win 20 to buy this one down to 3 points but we'll do it. We always buy downto 3 at that rate, though we'll often lower our bet amount to do it. This time we'll stay with a lite play. The homeboys look good even against a top team tonite.

The Bengals are playing defense this year, as evidenced by their high ranking against the run. We feel that a running play by the Titans is a wasted play, and they will waste some plays. Cincy should have some success moving the ball with the run and pass, while the Tits have to air it out to move the ball at all. Hopefully, the Bengals will win this one straight up and score us two big ones.,

Yes, it's crazy to bet against the Pack, but crazy we are. The Chargers can pass the ball with the best of them and their pass defense is not chopped liver, either. Somehow, the Packers manage to hold opponents scoring down. We think it's the pressure to score that causes that. If Rivers pushes the ball across instead of dropping it this one has a chance. It's going to be a rainy day in San Diego.

Two average defenses, two awesome passing attacks. It looks like a close game except the Pats can also run the ball. This isn't a Best Bet but the system is covering a large spread and we should not have to worry about Belichek calling of the dogs in this one.

The key statistic here is the rushing game for Buffalo. It jumps out at you. The Jets have a pretty good defense, especially against the pass, but we see a major advantage on the ground for the Bills. The system also projects an edge in turnovers for Buffalo. It's something that would be nice, but we shouldn't need it. You can't really predict turnovers anyway, can you? With the Bills undefeated at home and having an impressive 3-1 ATS record there, and the Jets winless on the road, this looks like a good play. The odds are such that we have to lay 6 to win 5 (or in our case, 24pts to win 20) so lets call it lite play to get things started.

We sort of fell in love with this pic before we had all the facts in. Sure, Frisco is a juggernaut this year but in this game they're playing on the road ... at noon ... across country. Ordinarily we could ride the 49rs steady D and churn-it-out O to a smooth victory. This time, we need the 49rs travel department and their GM to step up. Against the Eags, the team woke up after trailing 20-3 at halftime but at least the D showed against Cincy and Detroit. We wouldn't even fool with this one in year's past but things seem to be changing. More on that later, for now, we'll drop a dime on the visitors.

This is a strange play for us considering that it's a poor team on the road. The thing is, we don't see much separation between these teams. None, really. Kansas City is a poor team playing at home. You'd think they would come out with the win up there, but who would be surprised if they won by a FG, or if Miami did? The 4 points should be worth a chip.