Games of WEEK 06

TEASER: Broncos +7 & OVER 41 1/2 Broncos 24 Chargers 24 Computer Projection HIT: Broncos 35 Chargers 24

We lost a lot of games yesterday. The disturbing thing is not that 3 of our losses were from 'No-Shows', but that the system always seems to point to them. If it were 50/50 it would be much easier to deal with them. Tonite, our forecast is very close to the Vegas line from LVH. Sometimes we just skip the game altogether when this occurs, but it's Monday nite, and as we've said before, it's the only game in town. We are going to do what we have often done in these situatios and play a teaser - giving 6 points to the spread and 6 points to the O/U. Which way to go? Hopefully, it doesn't matter, we just want the Vegas oddsmakers to be right. Everything analytical tool we use points to a close game with steady scoring. That includes the weather report, which says 'perfect' in Charger-land tonite. One half point in our forecast tilts us Denver's way and toward the OVER, so that's what we'll do. Besides, you can't go wrong betting Manning, can you? It's a 1 point spread so we'll add 6 and make it the Bronc's and 7, and it's a 47 1/2 point O/U so we'll subtract 6 to go OVER 41 1/2. Yeah, it looks like good bets but be aware that the oddmakers are off by an average of 10 points in both the spread and Total, and we have to hit both bets to collect on one. It's like a Parlay but without the odds. Considering our record of late and the now dwindling pile of chips we have, we'll just go with the one-chip minimum.

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Texans -4 Colts 25 Jets 25 Computer Projection MISS: Packers 42 Texans 24

Colts +3 1/2 Colts 25 Jets 25 Computer Projection MISS: Jets 35 Colts 9

This should be a good, tense game that either team can win, but we don't expect the victory to be by more than a FG. It should be tough going for these two offenses who don't do much well at all. The only good news for either team is that these are two fairly weak Ds, with the Jets having an extremely weak run D. Even with the good secondary the Run D makes it tough for the Jets to get off the field, and we hope the Colts strong pass rush makes it hard for the Jets to get on the board. Be wary if you bet this game, while both teams are busted up it appears the Colts have the more serious injuries. Be aware also that it may rain up there. According to LVH, this bet comes off at EVEN.

The forecast actually projects a rout in this one. It's something that rarely occurs with our computer system. The Falcons only real weakness is in their run D and Oakland is ill equipped to exploit that. The Raiders have shown they don't travel well. Add to this the fact that they have to cross two time zones and you should get a jetlag factor. This week, we're calling any game with at least a 6-point difference between our spread and 'their's' a Best Bet, and this is the only game that fits the bill. The two chips is still a lite play for us but it's time we started to up the ante.

Falcons -9 Falcons 37 Raiders 14 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Falcons 23 Raiders 20

We kinda were looking for any reason NOT to take the Lions in this game but we couldn't find any. The forecast is inexplicably tilted a full 4 points in the Lions direction. We're sure it has something to do with turnovers. We don't like to rely on them because they're so unpredictable. Otherwise, the Eagles dominate the stats with the exception of the pass rush. Who knows? Maybe that pass rush will get to Vick and he'll fumble.

Lions +3 1/2 Lions 25 Eagles 24 Computer Projection HIT: Lions 26 Eagles 23

Dallas is going to pass, and Baltimore is going to run. The projected numbers are pretty close otherwise. There isn't any obvious advantage for the Ravens other than the fact that they are at home. The Cows rank 1st in yards allowed passing but it's only because teams haven't had to pass against them. In defensive passing efficiency, they are only average, giving up 7.2 yards/pass. If the Ravens do have to pass, they should be able to, but we think the run game will work. We o have to lay 6/5 odds to get it at 3 points.

Ravens -3 Ravens 26 Cowboys 19 Computer Projection MISS: Ravens 31 Cowboys 29

It was two games ago against the Pats that the Bills fell apart at halftime. They haven't been able to get the pieces back together since. All the Bills have shown this year is a good running game. They are awful passing the ball and can't stop anyone. The Cards are a bad offense but they might find the going easier against the Bills, and that Card defense should be the best unit on the field. This looks like a pretty good bet in Zona and with several Bills lineman out. At the time we posted our forecast this wasn't a Best Bet but with the line dropping 1/2 point it is now. Going with the lite, 2-chip play.

Cardinals -4 Cardinals 29 Bills 19 Computer Generated Best Bet MISS: Bills 19 Cards 16

We won this regular season matchup with Frisco last year but it wasn't easy. We had to stave off Eli Manning as he launched a few into the endzone from the 10 in the last seconds. After the OT win by the Giants in the Conference Championhip, you can see why we're a little squeamish about this one. Sometimes, being squeamish is a good thing. All things being equal we really shouldn't lay that many points. But all things aren't equal, are they? Isn't the 49rs pass offense and pass defense better this year. We're not convinced, but this game will surely hinge on it. Eli Manning and that Giants passing offense is a real test. This game should be a doozy. Laying a lot of points with the home team on an absolute minimum play.

49rs -6 1/2 49rs 30 Giants 20 Computer Projection MISS: Giants 26 49rs 3

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Steelers -6 Steelers 28 Titans 19 Computer Projection MISS: Titans 26 Steelers 23

Good Luck Everyone!