Games of WEEK 09

Eagles +3 Eagles 27 Saints 25 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Saints 28 Eagles 13

The Eagles can score points if they don't fumble them away. They probably will turn it over more than the Saints in tonite's game, but that doesn't mean they won't exploit the worst-ever Saints D when they do hold onto the ball. The Saints have that passing attack, and it will be effective, but the Eagles own passing game should cancel it out. That leaves us with the rushing game. The Eags have one, the Saints don't. Our alternative Recent History forecast calls this one anything but a Best Bet, with the Saints actually winning by 2 points, but it still says take Philly and 3. We were going to bet two chips on this one but Vegas is charging 6/5 to take the points, so we'll make a minimum play.

The forecasts all call for a 5 or 6 point Atlanta victory. Even though our data shows that the Cows may have comparable or even more total offense, each projection shows additional sacks and penalties for the Cows. This is essentially about making full use of drives, which Atlanta is expected to do, and Dallas is not. We'll hope something terrible happens to the Cows when it looks like they are going in. It should be another close one - let's bet the minimum.

Atlanta -4 1/2 Falcons 25 Cowboys 20 Computer Projection HIT: Falcons 19 Cowboys 13

Vikings +4 Seahawks 19 Vikings 18 Computer Projection MISS: Seahawks 30 Vikes 20

All of our forecasts indicate this will be a close game with about the same total offense by each team. Certainly nothing to suggest anything other than a FG win. This one should be tense for bettors on either side. We do want to have action here but it doesn't mean we have to bet more than the minimum.

Bucs +1 Tampa Bay 26 Raiders 26 Computer Projection HIT: Bucs 42 Raiders 32

The Bucs have been getting better although they have a long way to go. That road win last week was impressive and if thats going to be an indicator then they should be able to pull this one out, even though it's a longer trip. If we disregard Oakland's blunders they do appear to be able to handle the Bucs, but at this point we give a little more creedence to the Recent History forecast. Should be interesting.

Ordinarily this is a Best Bet for us Arizona's way but there are a few things about this game that the system doesn't know. Not the least of which is the Time Zone difference. Zona already is scoring-challenged, and it doesn't help to fight the clock as well. We don't want to even talk about Daylight Savings Time. GRIDLINE has always felt that BOTH teams need to participate in the scoring to beat the Total and we don't think it's going to happen in Green Bay. Zona does have a pretty good defense - if they get off the plane - and Green Bay may consider running out the clock once they have a comfortable lead.

Packers/Cards UNDER 43 Packers 23 Cardinals 18 Computer Generated Best Bet MISS: Packers 31 Cards 17

It's surprising that the Jags are a good team to bet on even though they have only the one win. It's even more surprising that those 4 ATS wins have come on the road, not at home. We don't quite understand that, but it does explain in part why road dogs are such a good play this year. Detroit does have a decent offense and it appears that Stafford will have time to pass against the Jags. That's more than we can say about the Jags, who are 27th in giving up sacks, and they're playing against a D-line that is 11th there. It doesn't hurt that Jones-Drew is out. Maybe that's why this line is creeping up, so we got it before it went to 6. It's not a big spread differential but we like the way Detroit plays (when they're not fumbling) and we consider last week's game a gift. We'll try it again with a two-chip play on the road favorite.

Lions -5 1/2 Lions 25 Jaguars 19 Computer Projection HIT: Lions 31 Jags 14

The Bears look like a solid favorite over the Titans but they sport one of the worst two-minute Ds in the game so no spread is safe. Still, otherwise this is a make-no-mistake, conservative offense and the leagues top D. The Tits can actually play pretty good offense if they don't have any turnovers, and they might just beat the Bears if they can keep it close enough to exploit that 'prevent defense', but turnovers are natural and we expect all teams to have at least one over the course of a game. In other words, any turnover Chi-town comes up with should be a spread-beater. The spread is 3 1/2 so we'll pay 13/10 to bring it down to 3. Now if we could just get them to play defense in that last two-minutes ... call it another lite, two-chip play on the road favorite.

Bears -3 Bears 27 Titans 19 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Bears 51 Titans 20

Colts +2 Colts 22 Miami 21 Computer Projection HIT: Colts 23 Dolphins 20

Call it the "No-Show" bowl. Neither team was there to start the season, and the Colts failed to show against the Jets while Miami benefited from a Jets no-show, along with Oakland. It makes it hard to get a bead on these teams. All weirdness aside, this should be a classic pass vs. run matchup. We suspect both teams will have some success in those departments, but with the Colts playing at home and the machine tilting slightly their way, we have to go with them. For all their no-shows, the Colts have been there at home. Of course, you can't blame us for keeping the bet down to one chip.

The Bills can run the ball, but the Texans can defend the run, especially at home. We suspect that run game can keep the Bills in the game for awhle, but with the Texans well-drilled offense going up against one of the worst Ds in football the Bills are going to have to pass to keep up. The Bills don't pass well. We have been caught by surprise by both the Texans and Bills before, but we don't think the Bills can field a complete enough team to stay close in Houston. If it was under 10 we might bet more. Make it two chips on the Texans.

Texans -10 Texans 37 Bills 18 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Texans 21 Bills 9

Browns +3 1/2 Ravens 24 Browns 23 Computer Projection MISS: Ravens 25 Browns 15

It's beginning to look like the Ravens are not the team they were when they had Ray Lewis. It certainly has affected their run defense, which is ranked 31st in yardage allowed over the last 4 weeks. The Browns do like to run the ball, and it's possible they'll see a few more First Downs than they are used to. The Browns have been playing some good ball lately but their stats may be inflated just a little from last week's weather game. There is no such luck this weekend under kinder skies. We don't want to go crazy here but this one looks like it might be decided by a FG either way.

This is definitely a game we would pass on if we had a choice, but we don't. The 7 point spread seems right. A lot of places other than LVH are adding the hook. We wouldn't suggest laying 7 1/2. On paper the Chargers don't look so bad with a decent passing game going against a weak pass D, at least completion-wise. The Chiefs do take steps to avoid giving up big plays. The Chargers field a good run D, which is the Chiefs only offense. The problem is that all of our forecasts project about the same total offense for both teams, with the 8 point GRIDLINE spread being attributable to more efficient use of the yardage and the HFA. It's nothing we can get excited about, although we do like the fact that the system projects the Chargers to score above the average, and the Chiefs to score below. We might get help from some timely Chiefs penalties, tonite. It's not all bad that the Chargers lost to Cleveland last week under non-football weather conditions. That may have skewed the stats a bit to make the Chargers look worse than they are, and it may have kept the point spread down to 7.

Chargers -7 Chargers 26 Chiefs 18 Computer Projection HIT: Chargers 31 Chiefs 13

Good Luck Everyone!