Games of WEEK 14

Talk about two good teams with differing styles. The Pats like to churn downfield methodically on long drives and laugh at opponents who think they can do the same. The Texans like to play on their opponent's side of the field, waiting for 3 and outs, and collecting points everytime their opponent doesn't rise to the occasion. You have to imagine that both teams will have their way at certain times. The key stat should be time of possession. Houston leads the league in forced punts and New England leads the league in avoiding them. The Pats are 29th in forcing punts, and the Texans punt more than 29 other teams. The Texans like to punt because somehow, it leads to the best time of possession in the league. Go figure. If the weather is nice enough - and it should be, even though it'll be wet - we could see Schaub revert to his old self, tearing apart a weak pass D with those gut shots. The Patriots rank 29th in passing yards allowed, and even worse, they rank 28th in yards per pass. So that's it. Every once in a while you'll see Brady and the Pats string some plays together and get deep, and every once in a while you'll see the Texans receiving a punt already in scoring position. We're hoping for more of the latter, and for Randy to look like Brady when he gets close. In Schaub we trust. The forecast says it's too close to call but New England's stats are padded by the Indy and Jet routs. When we run the No Show projection it's a dead heat. Call it a lite play on the road dog.

Texans +5 1/2 Patriots 31 Texans 26 Computer Projection MISS: Patriots 42 Texans 14

We had the Lions in the first meeting when we said, "we can't find any reasons not to bet these guys other than metaphysical ones." It turned metaphysical real quick when, as the Pack was on their own 20 inside of two minutes trailing by six and came back, not only to win, but beat a 3-point spread. That may have been our best bet of the year even though we lost. This week, all the same analysis applies, only this time the Pack is at home. What worries us again are the metaphysical factors. In other words, Detroit has lots of excuses not to show tonite. They are out of the playoffs, on the road, and there's tons of infighting. If only someone could convince them they don't have to fumble the game away we'd feel much better. Maybe now that their Two-minute Defense has cost them the playoffs they won't go into it anymore. Going with the minimum tonight.

Lions +6 1/2 Packers 28 Lions 24 Computer Projection MISS: Packers 27 Lions 20

Dolphins +10 1/2 49rs 34 Dolphins 24 Computer Projection MISS: 49rs 27 Dolphins 13

This game defies satistical analysis because the teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum and there is such a large point spread. It is similar to the Eagles game but this time the hook (the 1/2 point) occurs at 10, not 7. Trying to win with the points is not a good idea but if you are going to do it, do it with lots of points.

Eli Manning should be able to at least match what Brees does in the air today, and the Giants run game should get going, too. We expect that run game to tilt the time of possession the Giants way. This one could look a lot like the Giants/Packers game a couple of weeks ago.

Giants -4 1/2 Giants 31 Saints 25 Computer Projection HIT: Giants 52 Saints 27

It's a Best Bet, but it's also half of a football team. Who would have ever thought the baseball Cards would outscore the football Cards? We think if Zona just took the free points over the course of the game they would score 10 points, and that would be enough. For instance, if the Seahawks shank a punt the Cards should be assured of at least a FG. We're afraid they will pass on the 3 points, and pass it into the stands, instead. Having a 4-8 team will do that. Betting the minimum here.

Cardinals +10 Seattle 20 Cards 15 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Seahawks 58 Cards 0

We can't really see how the Ravens are going to stop the Skins, but the Ravens do have an experienced defense and they should be able to slow them down. Hopefully, the Ravens won't dedicate too much to the run and hang their pass defense out to dry. The Skins one weakness is their own pass D, but it's a heckuva weakness, ranking 31st in yards allowed. If they were good against the pass the Skins might be the best team in the league, with that pass D, any team has a chance. Call it a lite play.

Ravens +2 1/2 Ravens 26 Redskins 26 Computer Projection MISS: Redskins 31 Ravens 28>

Cowboys +3 1/2 Bengals 25 Cowboys 24 Computer Projection HIT: Cowboys 20 Bengals 19

It should be a stormy day in Cincy. It's always good to have points in bad weather. We had this game as pretty close, anyway. Dallas needs to pass to score, but as bad as those storms may get, there doesn't appear to be any wind. And while a lot has been made of the Bengal pass rush lately, their numbers have come against the 30th ranked schedule. Regarding the recent accident: After last week's Chief game, it appears OK to play a team that has seen tragedy. Two more on the road dog.

Rams +3 Bills 23 Rams 22 Computer Projection HIT: Rams 15 Bills 12

Tough call here. We may need all 3 points. Over the course of the season the Rams are the better team and a few weeks ago we'd be all over them, but lately Buffalo has found a brutal defense and an even more vicious running game. The Rams can play pretty good defense, too, and they have been doing it a lot longer. This game is definitely not for the squeamish.

Panthers +3 1/2 Panthers 23 Falcons 23 Computer Projection HIT: Panthers 30 Falcons 20

The Panthers big weakness has been their run defense but the Falcons don't really run the ball. Not this year. and the Birds don't really have a spectacular D, it's just that when their opponent isn't scoring, they are. The Pants will be able to move the ball on Atlanta at home, it's just a matter of scoring. This one will come in if the Pants don't give away points or leave points on the field. That's a big IF but they are at home and we have the spread.

Neither team can move the ball athough the Jags have had some success throwing since Henne came in. Unfortunately for the Jags, defending the pass is the one thing the Jets do well. With no real defense to stop them, we expect the Jets to score the few points they'll need to cover.

Jets -3 Jets 23 Jaguars 19 Computer Projection HIT: Jets 17 Jaguars 10

Titans +5 Colts 29 Titans 24 Computer Projection HIT: Colts 27 Titans 23

If we look at the season long data the projection is a push, but when we look at the recent history the Titans actually come out on top. Tennessee has played some good ball despite losing their last couple of games. We wouldn't be surprised if the magic continued for Luck and the Colts pulled out another late victory, but it seems like that's the only kind of victory Indy can pull out. With Tennessee playing some good defense lately it looks like a good place to lay down some chips and hope they don't screw up too much.

Browns -7 Browns 24 Chiefs 17 Computer Projection HIT: Browns 30 Chiefs 7

Again, the Official forecast has a push for this game but the Recent History forecast calls it Cleveland. The Browns, too, have been playing good D as of late, particularly Run D, and running is all the Chiefs can do. It's a lot of points to give but the Browns are at home.

Broncos/Raiders OVER 48 1/2 Broncos 33 Raiders 21 Computer Projection MISS: Broncos 26 Raiders 13

Denver has to be king at giving up consolation TDs, and the Raiders took one against the Browns just last week. Both occurances gave us a push. We don't really want to count on that late TD being there, but a play on OVER the Total does account for that possibily, although we can get the HIT without it. We still need the Raiders to participate in the scoring. It's hard to see where the points are going to come from, but they are at home, it is a nationally televised game, and they are playing for their coach, who lost his father and former Falcons LB Grady Allen this week. We do expect that Manning will have trouble with a fired up Raider defense but we still expect him to push it across.

Good Luck Everyone!