GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2012 Season

Games of WEEK 17



content below posted 02:00SUN30DEC12 cst

Plays for Sunday early, December 30th, 2012

We hate the last week of the season. Always have. There are so many emotional issues that our system is rendered useless even in it's best years. Some teams are playing for a playoff spot and some for a home game or a bye in the playoffs. Alternately, some are playing for a draft choice. Those guys want to lose. The rest of the teams are playing for nothing. The game is the last thing that happens before they go on vacation. A lot of fans like to think that those teams are playing for pride or to have a winning season or to improve their record. We love their enthusiasm. Keep your chin up!

We are going to try to stay with the system and try to stay away from road teams that don't have any reason to concentrate. It doesn't leave us with much to choose from.

The Giants still have to play while they have a shot. They need losses by the Vikes, Bears and Cowboys to get in, but the first order of business is beating the Eags. That means everybody plays, and they play hard. Of course, that all goes out the window if the Bears are taking care of business at the same time. If the Giants see a healthy Bears lead against the Lions all bets are off, and our bet is done for. Hopefully, we can beat them to the punch with a 1st Half Only bet. The full game spread is 7.
Giants -4 1/2
(1st Half)
Giants 30 Eagles 19
Computer Projection
HIT: Giants 35 Eagles 7 (1H)

Thats the only play for the early games. We'll be back for the afternoon contests with a couple of more plays, but we don't want to blow a mess of cash with the playoffs coming up. Until then ....


content below posted 13:00SUN30DEC12 cst

Plays for Sunday late, December 30th, 2012

Broncos -10
(1st Half)
Broncos 32 Chiefs 14
Computer Projection
HIT: Denver 21 Chiefs 3 (1H)
Again, going with much same logic as the first game. This time, in addition to Denver's incentive to win, at least for a half, the Chiefs have a great incentive to blow this game, namely the number one draft pick. We may lose a little confidence if the Jags don't hold up their end of the bargain by losing the earlier game, but Denver's motivation remains. This is large point spread even for half the game, but it's worth a shot.

Patriots -9 1/2
Patriots 32 Dolphins 19
Computer Projection
HIT: Patriots 28 Dolphins 0
Finally, a team whose inspiration should last the whole game. The Pats have to win to earn a bye - no ifs, ands or buts. The Dolphins vacation starts as soon as their plane touches down back in Miami. Back in Week 13 when these two went at it the Dolphins were still a team to be reckoned with, and it took an unusually wise choice by their the coach to cut the lead to 7 with a late FG to keep the Fins in the game. Coaches who make good decisions often find themselves without a job in this league. The Pats may be a little nervous but we like the fact that they are at home and they do have the whole game to get their act together against a large spread. Call it a lite play.

We try to play statistics always but that doesn't mean we don't believe that emotion plays a big part in these outcomes. We simply don't know how to quantify it. Not yet. Our philosophy is that these players are paid so much that they should give their all on every play, regardless of the score. Unfortunately, that's not the case. Maybe it will be when we return for tonight's game.




content below posted 15:50SUN30DEC12 cst

Plays for Sunday night, December 30th, 2012

Redskins -3
Redskins 28 Cowboys 25
Computer Projection
HIT: Redskins 28 Cowboys 18
Washington's Mike Shanahan invented pulling up his teams when he was with the Broncos. There isn't much danger of him doing that tonight even though he has clinched a playoff spot already. It's not so much about winning the division or determining their next opponent, it's more about where they play. A win for Washington means they play in Washington. A loss means a 3000 mile trip to the west coast. Dallas is in a must win situation as well. For them, it IS a playoff game. Win and they go on, lose and they don't. The last game of the 2012 regular season should be a good one.

We are projecting only 56 yards rushing for Dallas. That's basically nothing. On the plus side for the Cowboys, they take one of the league's best pass attacks to Washington against a weak pass D. Whatever Dallas gets, they'll get through the air. The Redskins will bring a more varied attack. Most fans know about that option running game. What they might not know is that Washington's passing attack, while only ranked in the middle of the league yardage-wise, is the most efficient in the league. When the Redskins do pass, it goes a long way. In many ways it's a pick-your-poison offense. Pull up a safety to stop the option and give up a long pass play. We suspect the Skins will have success with both attacks at different stages of the game.

When this one opened it was a Dallas bet by the half-point hook, now that it has gone down to 3 we are free to bet either way. To people like us who want to bet the Skins way, be forewarned that the juice is tilted toward Dallas. You have to lay 6/5 to take the Skins, while the Cows are even money at 3 points. Make it a full play on what should be a great end to the season.



Last Week

Good Luck Everyone!