Games of WEEK 03

Denver -16 N/A Computer Projection PUSH: Broncos 37 Raiders 21

We don't want to crap on Oakland just because we're betting against them and laying some serious wood. The Raiders are an improving team with an improving coaching staff. Earlier this year they left early to escape jetlag and nearly upset the Colts in Indy, and they won just like they were supposed to at home against the Jags. This one's more about Manning and the Broncos. We remember years ago when we layed 13 1/2 points to the Rams. Peyton and the Colts fell behind by 17, then came back and ended up winning by 17. That's Peyton Manning for ya'. If Oakland would stick to their game plan and wait for Denver mistakes they could beat this spread. But we have seen teams go into desperation mode, doing what they think they need to do to win, only to end up giving away points to the Broncs. Denver seems to thrive on teams playing catchup. This is our last fully intuitive play of the season. Next week we'll have full use of GRIDLINE's statistics and projections, and we'll slowly start taking more significant risks. In the meantime, it wouldn't hurt to finish this first phase of betting on a winning note.

It's hard to bet against the Steelers at home. They usually do a time of possession and field position thing combined with 'one turnover kills' attitude that is tough to overcome. We don't think they have the team to pull that off this year. The O-line appears so weak they can't sustain anything, even at home. The Steeler defense will be there, but the Bears are putting up points this year. We like to think that the good offense vs. good defense and the bad O vs, bad D thing will even out, with one turnover by either team resulting in a winning FG. That team could easily be Pittsburgh. Definitely keeping this one lite.

Bears -2 1/2 N/A Computer Projection HIT: Bears 40 Steelers 23

To be honest, we're kind of happy just not to be giving up points in this game. We're always looking for a short spread and a live dog - an underdog that can win the game. We really don't want to rely on points. At the same time, nothing is worse than laying points and being hooked. With the straight up win, your team is happy while you, as a losing bettor, are pissed. We'll be able to make some scientific remarks next week when the data comes in. For now, we simply note that these are the NFC regular season champs from last year. We understand that the Fins have made great strides in the offseason, culminating with their impressive road victory over the playoff Colts, but we think the Birds are, well, themselves. We know about Steven Jackson's injury - it's probably the reason we're getting 2 points - but we get the feeling the Fins would rather tackle Jackson all day than chase after those receivers. One chip on the road doggie.

Falcons +2 N/A Computer Projection MISS: Dolphins 27 Falcons 23

Eagles -3 N/A Computer Projection MISS: Chiefs 26 Eagles 16

This was a very tough game to cap. They all are this early in the season. We're impressed by the way the Chiefs are playing, though not really surprised. Andy Reid knows a thing or two about building franchises, and he appears to have left his personal problems back in Philly. On the flip side, his replacement, Chip Kelly, is doing some innovative things over there using mostly the fruits of Reid's labor. As solid as Kansas City's defense has been, we think Michael Vick might be a little too much for them tonight. It doesn't look like the Chiefs can sack him. He only suffered one sack last week. And while it's a good bet that the Chiefs will stop the Eagle run game, they may not be able to stop those impromptu scrambles by Vick. The Chiefs seem to guard against the long pass, as illustrated last week by Romo's high-cmpletion rate on high-percentage throws. For Chip Kelly's offense, that should translate into a lot of plays. Admittedly, with a little patience K.C. could field a productive offense. The only thing wrong with that approach is that for a new system, it requires mistake free ball to be fully effective. A turnover could affect the Chiefs more than it would the Eagles, and if the Chiefs want to compete on the road, they can't have another 10 penalty game like last week. For years GRIDLINE has been the best kept secret on the internet. Don't look for that to change any time soon, not by betting on Vick. Everyone outside of Philadelphia despises him, and most new visitors to the site will turn away from us just from association. But we don't consider popularity when capping the games. In fact, a lot of the appeal we have to anyone is our lack of bias. Goin' with the home guys on this one.

Good Luck Everyone!

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