GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2013 Season

SUPER BOWL XLVIII

content below posted 02:20SUN02FEB14 cst

Plays for Sunday

BULLSEYE! We gotta say it because that's what we got in the NFC Conference Championship. Yep, you can call it luck. We project a lot of games and you have to figure that sooner or later we're gonna nail one, and we've gotten a few in the past, but it ain't gonna stop us from tooting our own horn. It's kinda like the pro golfer who was asked by the reporter if he felt lucky to get a hole-in-one. He told him, "I don't know why you call it luck, it was exactly what I was trying to do." The victory by Seattle was tense, but in the end it turned out exactly as we had projected: A close, close game that would come down to the Seahawk's pass defense. And, in a way, our Bronco game projection was even more accurate. No running game for the Pats, even though they tried, and the Broncos did, indeed, prove to be unstoppable in the AFC Conference Championship.

And now the Super Bowl is here. It's a great day. It should be a great game between two great teams. Much has been said about the choice of venue. This is the Super Bowl, so the less said about it the better. The best thing we can say is that Punxutawny Phil is a football fan, but just locating the game outdoors in the dead of winter sets a bad precedent. There is a washed out Super Bowl in our future. Regardless, that shouldn't affect you when you're getting on those office pools or refining those wing recipes or donning your lucky jersey or enjoying the halftime show or drinking too much beer. It's still a party!

A lot of people think that the Seahawks run the ball well. They do, sorta, but it's more that they run it a lot. They only gain 4.4 yards/carry, slightly above the league average of 4.2, but they still manage to run the ball over 30 times a game. That's 55% of the time. The Broncos have a good run defense (3.8 Y/A) but the low Rushing Yards stat is skewed. Teams generally pass against the Broncs, so their run defense only gives up 96 yards/game, well below the league average. We think the Hawks will be able to run the ball, although it may be slow at times. Passing-wise, the Broncs do manage to keep the opponent's completion percentage down, but when they give up a completion it goes a long way. That should be fine with the Hawks, whose average completion of 12.1 yards is the stuff of dreams. During the season, they didn't need a huge completion percentage (64%), and we don't expect them to need one Sunday. They should continue to launch the ball sparingly and effectively, just as they have done all season. In short, we expect the Seahawks offense to look like the Seahawks offense, the one that ranks 7th in scoring.

We expect the Broncs to be the Broncs rushing-wise, anyway, but it's not about rushing with the Broncs, it's about passing. Manning has that high completion rate (nearly 70%), he's well protected, he doesn't throw INTs, and his passes go for a long way, too (11.8 yards/completion). It's the best passing offense in this age of passing offenses. Seattle's secondary, however, does figure to be resistant. They sport the best pass defense this league has seen in a long while. In addition to holding the completion percentage down, they only give up 9.2 yards/completion. And the Hawks have a good pass rush, although, as we have said, with that protection we don't expect to see Payton picking himself up after every play. We're expecting the Broncos to have to throw shorter passes than Peyton is used to throwing, and against tighter coverage. They'll score on long drives when the team does just right, but no, we don't see the scoring machine that puts up 36 ppg.

This should be a well-played ball game. Don't expect to see INTs or Pick-Sixes. Fumbles may play a part in the outcome but we think Seattle is more likely to convert a fumble into a score. They thrive on good field position. And we don't generally like to predict long kick returns, but we think Seattle could break one loose against Bronco coverage teams that rate among the worst in the league. Also, Wilson has been a bit restrained this year by Pete Carroll - he wouldn't want to see Russell fall to RG3's disease - but with 7 months to recover and given the sheer magnitude of the game, we can expect to see him cut loose on more than the designed QB draws.

We're going to go ahead and make a Full play on the Hawks. We do have to buy it up at 12/10 odds but if you're going with Seattle you should be able to wait on 3. Ordinarily, we might be inclined to bet Lite given these numbers, but this is the Super Bowl, and there is a human component to the GRIDLINE system. Realistixally, this is just another in a long stream of GRIDLINE bets, but emotionally, we can't help but be swept up in the big game hype.

Seahawks +3 (buy)

Seahawks 26 Broncos 25
Computer Projection

HIT: Seahawks 43 Broncos 8

That's it for 2013 season. It was an exhilirating one. A thrill ride.

We are still working on our next version of the GRIDLINE computer system. Right now, we capture game summaries for a team's past history, but is there any reason we should not record the individual plays from every game? It's scary to think about the possibilties. For one, we can opt to use only the meaningful plays from our database - those that occur while the games are still in the balance. Can we allow our visitors to build their own models for football games the GRIDLINE doesn't cover? Can we cover some college games? Those guys are going to a playoff system. These questions and many more will be addressed in the future.

Thank you to all our visitors for giving us a reason to document the season. Thank you, also, for allowing us to vent, on occasion. Be sure to check back. We don't go dormant for the long (7 months) offseason. Keep up with the All-Dead team. It's always good to remember the men who built the game. Be on the lookout for our News & Notes and additions to the Featured Articles sections. Please continue to send those emails. We always enjoy them and we try to respond promptly. Don't forget to visit our countdown to next season, and watch for surprises anywhere. We'll be back with the Primetime Plays next season, and the whole crazy cycle will start again. Until then ...

Good Luck Everyone!

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