GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2014 Season

GAMES OF WEEK 04

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Plays for MNF

We talk all the time about how much more effective we are as bettors when we are supplemented by the GRIDLINE computer system. No better illustration of that phenomenon is our record with and without the computer this year. Without it, we went 3-6 ATS in the first few weeks. With it, we've gone 4-0.

That puts us on a 5 game winning streak including last week's Monday niter. Five games isn't bad, but a winning streak is never as impressive as it looks. It's always bracketed by two losses. Similarly, a losing streak isn't as bad as it looks because it is bracketed by two hits. Anyway, we may have left some chips on the table this early on with the small bets, but we'd still like to finish out the week with a perfect slate.

Pats/Chiefs
UNDER 47

Patriots 20 Chiefs 19
Computer Projection

MISS: Chiefs 41 Pats 14

How can we miss? This looks just like last night's play. Well, not really. These are two slow-scoring teams, the Chiefs especially. But the Chiefs do figure to have the running game, and they do figure to have more first downs. We don't think the Chiefs will be able to sustain long drives with their short passing game, though. The Pats are near the top in pass defense early in the season. On the other side, the Pats may have trouble sustaining drives with their subpar run game supporting their own short passing attack. It adds up to neither team being able to sustain anything. Let's hope that's reflected in the scoring. The 47 is near the norm for an NFL Total and we're projecting less than 40 points between the teams, so let's make this our first UNDER play of the season.

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Plays for SNF

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/saints-@-cowboys.cfm/date/9-28-14/time/2030#Y

Cowboys +3

Saints 30 Cowboys 28
Computer Projection

HIT: Cows 38 Saints 17

It's always hard to bet against the Saints because they are the local boys. They are our team. It would be nice if the Cows just hooked them in a close game, but who are we kidding? We'll root for that anyway. Football, like gambling, is exciting, but guess what, rooting doesn't make a difference. The score is going to be the same in the end.

These two are the same team. More offense than defense. The Saints are a little better on O, the Cows a little better on D. Dallas has the run game, though, and they're playing in Dallas, and Dallas has the point spread. Those are good indicators for the Boys but things can deteriorate quickly if they don't keep their heads in the game. Definitely one we want to be careful with. Just the one chip.

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Plays for Sunday

That was a fairly easy HIT last Thursday. We pretty much had it wrapped up by the end of the 3rd quarter. Believe it or not, that's not the type of game we want. We want the games to be competitive, even when we're laying points. That's one of the unique things about GRIDLINE. We want the games to be competitive because it gives us a better bead on the teams. It gives us a better bead on the league. We learn more from a 30-24 game than from a 40-10 game. The data is more useful, and our projections can be much better.

That being said, lets hope our teams come through for us this Sunday. If the team we bet against happens to have a bad day, we'll take it. Let's just hope our own team doesn't have one of those days.

The numbers for our projected outcome look a lot like the actual numbers when Pittsburgh handled Carolina last week. If we were fully human we'd really be impressed by that, and the fact that Pitt beat the Pants in Charlotte. AND the Pants have to travel to Baltimore where the Ravens easily handled the Steelers. But we're only half human, and the machine half is saying that Carolina won't be able to run the ball. Now THAT's impressive. That's why they lost at home to the Steelers. We're only trying to win one chip but with the 3 point spread the odds are such that we have to risk 1.2 chips to do so.

Ravens -3

Ravens 25 Panthers 17
Computer Projection

HIT: Ravens 38 Pants 10

When it's early in our database construction the system is more likely to kick out a rout. We usually don't pay much heed to those picks. Heck, we'll put out our NO-SHOW forecast later in the season that completely ignores NO-SHOWS. In this case, however, the Jags have been non-existent since the first half of the first game. You could say that the NO-SHOW IS their personality. Maybe we're being too hard on Jacksonville but the Chargers have been playing good ball this year. Just betting the minimum and hoping it doesn't turn into a game.

Chargers -13

Chargers 39 Jaguars 11
Computer Projection

HIT: Bolts 33 Jags 14

There you go. A full day of action. Tune in a couple of hours before the opening touchback for the Sunday niter.

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Plays for Thursday nite

And now for something completely different.

We've been flying by the seat of our pants these first few weeks and it shows. We went a paltry 3-6 while waiting for the system to kick in. Well, it's kicked in, and we can leave the "Let's bet the Pats" stuff behind. We've seen too much of the shockjocks basing their opinions of this year's teams on last year's production.

A word of caution: The data is still new. It's all over the place. A strange game - an outlier - has undue influence over a team's stats. We can't yet exactly tell you what a team's personality is this year. Most teams don't know themselves at this stage, but there is value in the data if you interpret it correctly. By week 09 we'll have all our tools at our disposal and we'll be looking at the games in several ways. It's still good, though, to have an unbiased opinion right now. Without further ado, here's the first 2014 season GRIDLINE computer pick.

We doubt if we'd be going this way without the computer. Statistically, the Skins are putting up the best numbers in the league, while the Giants stats are simply lukewarm. You'd think those numbers, with the Skins HFA, would have the system pointing Washington's way.

The biggest reason the GRIDLINE algorythm went with the Giants is because of the strength of schedule. We factor in previous opponents in the formula, so it gives the edge to a team that has the stronger schedule, even if they have the same numbers. Early in the season, the schedule strength dominates the calculations because the disparity can be so wide. We actually thought this was a deficiency in our logic several years ago, but our general malaise allowed us to discover that schedule strength IS a good indicator early in the season. In other words, the Giants may have played better in their loss to the Cards than the Skins did in their rout of Jacksonville.

Back to the real world. The Cousins kid is a real passer, and lord knows Washington has needed a passer ever since RG3's knees went out. Still, you have to think this rivalry game might be close. we're still going a little slow, so let's keep it at a minimum on the road dog.

Giants +3

Redkins 24 Giants 22
Computer Projection

HIT: Giants 45 Skins 14

we mentioned the Jacksonville NO-SHOW against the Skins in WEEK 02. In our "NO-SHOW" forecasts, we define a NO-SHOW as any game where the margin of victory is 21 points or more. At the start of this season, we mentioned that we know how often NO-SHOWs occur, we said 15% of the time. This year, over three weeks there have been 6 NO-SHOWS. Over 48 games, the NO-SHOW rate is 12.5%. Know that NO-SHOWS are going to occur 2-3 times a week.

Until Sunday ...

Good Luck Everyone!

Last Week's Games