GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2014 Season

GAMES OF WEEK 11

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Plays for MNF

It's officially a major losing streak. We haven't seen this in years. It's time to break out the GRIDLINE motto.

The great, several-time World Land Speed record holder Craig Breedlove said it. He was trying to break his own record years ago - would have done it, too - but at over 600 mph his steering mechanism failed on the Bonneville Salt flats. The car veered off course, he chopped off a telephone pole four inches above the ground and tumbled into a shallow lake as the vehicle disintegrated. When the emergency units showed up they expected to see Craig in several pieces. Instead, they found Craig wet, sitting on the bank of the lake, checking out the debris floating by. A small film crew was there, and a reporter asked him if he would continue to try to break his own record in the face of such madness. Craig responded, "Perseverance always overcomes bad luck."

Titans +7

Titans 23 Steelers 23
Computer Generated BEST BET

HIT: Steelers 27 Titans 24

We're going to need perseverance. This time we're taking an also-ran against a contender.

We don't see much that would point to the Titans tonite. Then again, we saw all kinds of stuff that pointed our way yesterday, so maybe that's a good sign. It does appear the team can pressure the QB. We saw that yesterday, too. Didn't happen. Besides, R'Berger is built for that. Ben does throw INTs. The NO-SHOW forecast goes the Tits way (sigh). We're going to lower our bets and hope something weird happens. The spread went up a little, but it sure looks like we need 21 more points.

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Plays for SNF

We're really having a bad Sunday. It was punctuated when we lost a rare, Full play on the New Orleans Saints. There's no analyzing the MISS, the Saints simply played like they were saddled with monthly waterweight gain. We're doing the only thing we can, short of fading the GRIDLINE computer, which is slowing down the action while we are losing. This week, it doesn't matter how the games look, it's metaphysical. It's got something to do with the universe and chaos. It's a case where a win is more important than the chips. Let's get out of Week 11 without too much damage so we can live to fight again.

Colts -3

Colts 36 Patriots 26
Computer Generated BEST BET

MISS: Pats 42 Colts 20

Great. We're losing like crazy this week and we have to bet against the biggest bookie-busting team there ever was.

Yeah, the Colts secondary can be had, but so can the Pats. The Colts lead the league in possession time. It's something the Pats don't much care about, so for the Colts to lose they need to be pretty darn ineffective on offense. But hasn't that been the case with all our teams this week? Lately, the Pats have been having trouble against the run while the Colts have stepped up their game there. We'll need that to continue. Just a minimum play while we lick our wounds.

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Plays for Sunday early

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Redskinss -7

Redskins 34 Bucs 19
Computer Generated BEST BET

MISS: Bucs 27 Skins 7

The Redskins aren't a bad team they just turn the ball over too much. The Bucs turn it over too much also, but they are a bad team. Believe it or not, the key stat appears to be passing efficiency. The Skins gain more yardage per pass than everyone but the Pats and the Pack, while the Bucs are 26th defensively in that category. Risking two chips on a game between these inconsistent teams.

Vikings +3 (buy)

Bears 23 Vikes 23
Computer Projection

MISS: Bears 21 Vikes 13

The Bears are where they need to be to win one but we don't think they can win this one by more than 3. We're not quite sure where either team's points are going to come from, but the Bears have a tendency to give up more points than they should, and the Vikes give up fewer than their numbers would suggest. The Vikes destroy in the RECENT forecast. We'll have to buy up to 3 at fully 13/10 odds so we'll keep our risk at the minimum.

With no run D and no pass rush and just an average secondary, the Bengals defense will be overmatched against the Saints. The Saints figure to be unstoppable in the Dome. There is the real possibility of Cincy keeping up somewhat with the scoring, going against a weak and battered secondary, but it's a weak passing attack as well. We're just a little worried about the backdoor cover. Not that much, tho. Call it a Full play on the home team.

Saints -7

Saints 32 Bengals 21
Computer Generated BEST BET

MISS: Bengals 27 Saints 10

Eagles +6

Packers 32 Eagles 28
Computer Generated BEST BET

MISS: Pack 53 Eags 20

It's really tough to make this call because we're betting against Green Bay at home, and they should be able to get that passing game working. That's all we expect from the Pack, though. They can't run the ball and they don't do a very good job of protecting the passer. On the other side of the ball, new Philly starter Sanchez might be wondering what that funny feeling is. It's protection, Mark. The Eags are in the top 3 NFL teams in both avoiding and collecting sacks. The Eags should be able to run the ball, as well, against the weak Green Bay run D. If something does go wrong with this play, great kick returns are always a possibility with the Eags. They could save us. Yeah, yeah, yeah, we know - it's Green Bay at home. Going with a lite play on the road dogs.

Ordinarily, we might jump on the Giants considering it's a jet lag game for Frisco, but the 49ers take steps when traveling east and besides, we're not sure Coughlin has his wits about him after that red flag incident against the Colts. The KC/Seattle game and the Pants/Falcons have conflicting RECENT forecasts. We also just don't feel like trying to hook the Broncos with the Rams, and the Browns are one of our favorite teams to bet but the Texans run game scared us off. We should have a game for the afternoon so check back an hour before the opening touchback.

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Plays for Thursday nite

We were going to post our Official Forecast record tonite, but after looking at it, it just looks ridiculous. The games the GRIDLINE computer ID'd as Best Bets are coming in at 18-6 ATS. That's science fiction. Nobody passing by the website would believe we were hitting 75% ATS over an extended period. Instead of posting the numbers, we'll just invite the new visitors to page back through the weeks of the forecast. You cats are slick, anyway, we wouldn't expect you to believe it unless you saw it with your own eyes. As for ALL games, the forecast has an earthly 61% hit rate and, somewhat disappointingly, our actual betting record - a subset of the forecast - isn't quite as good.

Still, we're betting with their money, now, It's always a great place to be. This is the time of year where our struggles with the Vig should be over. You could say we're charging the books the juice just to see our plays. In any event, it's the time of year when a single-chip bet becomes less frequent, yielding to the still lite 2-chip plays, and more and more full or even heavy plays. Provided, of course, we keep playing with their money.

Dolphins -4 1/2

Dolphins 24 Bills 18
Computer Projection

HIT: Fins 22 Bills 9

These are two of the top defenses in the league, if not the top two. Last week, both defenses were on the way to winning one for their teams when the coaches told them, "Great job, guys, now we're going to play the Prevent." You'd think GRIDLINE, having lost on both of these teams last week, would have been pissed at the players. No. Blowing those games weren't on the defenses, it was on the coaches.

Neither offense will light the world on fire, tonite, but it's the Dolphins who will have at least an iota of a run game. That'll win the ball game. It is possible the Bills could hook them, but that's a chance we're willing to take. The point spread only comes into play a fifth of the time. Call it a lite play on the home favorite, and let's hope E.J. Manuel stays on the bench for another game.

Oddly enough, the forecast competes against the early line, so when this one came out at 6 points the system considered it a PUSH. It won't be counted when the system checks it's own record. C'est la vie ...

Good Luck Everyone!

Last Week's Games