The system calls this one a PUSH at 3 points. We were inclined to go with Pittsburgh since they came through for us last week, then we remembered we weren't supposed to love or hate teams because of a single performance. Even though they've been doing well the last few weeks we can see the system leans their way mostly because of the home field. Now, get the shovel because the following is going to look like a bunch of crap.
Earlier this season we showed how we determined the real HFA and we did the calculations. At that time, it was about 10%, or +/-5% depending whether a team was home or away. That number was based on games played the last year and a half. Now, we redid the calculations and the HFA for the season is 6.6%. We have not adjusted it downward in mid-season, but clearly the arrow would be pointing squarely at the Ravens if we had. In other words, with the HFA declining the Ravens are the computer's play if our system had adjusted.
Looking at the numbers from a neutral field aspect, the Ravens appear to be the slightly better team. They are only average at passing, but the Steelers aren't very good at pass defense and it looks to us like the Ravens will be the ones who can run the ball, if they stick with it. The Steelers do have a good passing game and they have been protecting Ben well but they'll be facing a stronger pass rush.
We think the Ravens will give their running game a chance and this will be a very close and very good game. Call it a lite play at even money with the 3 points on another road dog.
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| Ravens +3 (@10/10) |
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Steelers 28 Ravens 25
Computer Projection |
| HIT: Ravens 30 Steelers 17 |
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