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| Colts +7 |
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Patriots 30 Colts 26
Computer Projection |
| MISS: Pats 45 Colts 7 |
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New England has a dominant history against the Colts, doubling them up the last few times they played. We try not to think about history too much, but it's hard. The Colts just haven't been able to stop the simplest running play against the Pats. That's either because they're inadequate on run D, or they just phone in another stinker. The Colts tend to do that. We'd rather take our chances against a stinker. If the Colts can't at least slow down the run with an honest D, this game ended three years ago. Our data suggest the Colts can hold the Pats down to reasonable numbers. If those grunts can't get off the mark in a Conference Championship game they'll be jumping up real quick at the unemployment office next season.
That's pretty much the whole story for this game. Otherwise, it's two good offenses trying to manage the game against each other and the elements. Our objective Power Ratings show the Colts as the better team, but either team can win in Foxboro. We should see tons of trick plays designed to end in bucket catches. It could get nasty weather-wise at times, but with a full TD we'll go with the Colts. Again, tho, that history thing makes this one a low-confidence play.
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