GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2015 Season
WEEK 06
| ATS Rec | Pct. | Chips Bet | Net Chips |
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| Week 06 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 5.6 | -1.3 |
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| Season to date | 13-9-2 | 59.1% | 26.3 | 4.2 |
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content below posted 17:00MON19OCT15 cst
It looks like our extended period of winning came to a jilting halt yesterday. We made our worst bet of the year on the Seahawks, overestimating them hugely while underestimating the Panthers, who seem to be ready to challenge for the NFC title. Then, in the night game, we fell victim to the prevent defense at the end. When trying to cover large spreads, you almost have to tack on another 7-8 points. That's how many points your laying when the coach goes into his prevent defense. Nowadays TDs have been devalued to the point where large favorites aren't as good as they used to be.
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| Eagles -3 (buy) |
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N/A
Computer Projecton |
| HIT: Eags 27 Giants 7 |
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It appears - at least we're hoping - that the Eags have discovered their offense six games into the season. Bradford appears more comfortable with just getting the ball into the hands of his supporting cast, where the Eagles plays start. Flip it out, flat it out, dump it off, and GO! In Philly, we expect the Eags run defense to play well. The Giants are more about Eli launching those intermediate routes and crossing patterns, anyway. This one is a case of Eli's pure passing vs, the Eags multi-faceted, hurry up offense. At home, we'll go with the Eags. We had to buy the 1/2 point, but the line is such that we're only laying 12/10 for that privilege. It's usually 13/10.
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content below posted 17:00SUN18OCT15 cst
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| Patriots -10 |
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N/A
Computer Projecton |
| MISS: Pats 34 Colts 27 |
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No. We don't believe the Pats are simply destined to win big every time they play the Colts. For that matter, we don't believe that the revenge factor will provide the motivation for the Colts to beat the Pats. We do believe that the effort by the Colts against the Texans - even though they won - exposed some serious deficiencies in the Colts secondary. Given the all-around sheer excellence of the Patriots, that deficiency should be fully exploited. It doesn't hurt that we expect the Colts to load up against a Patriot rushing game that has gashed them repeatedly in New England. That should leave the secondary even more exposed.
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content below posted 13:50SUN18OCT15 cst
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Plays for Sunday afternoon
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Slim pickens this afternoon. Does anybody else think they should just play eastern games at noon and have the bulk of the slate at 3pm? In any event, we need some action. The three games involve 1-4 teams where we don't know what could happen, and the Green Bay and Seattle homies. It was a toughie to pick, but we figured at the two-minute warning we'd rather have an 8 point lead with the Hawks than a 16 point lead with the Pack. All we can really say is that the Pants played well against the Hawks under similar conditions in the playoffs last year and they STILL didn't beat the spread.
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| Seahawks -7 |
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N/A
Computer Projecton |
| MISS: Pants 27 Hawks 23 |
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content below posted 01:00SUN18OCT15 cst
Tough loss, Thursday. We said we didn't want to yield to metaphysical concerns, but how else can you explain the blocked punt that was nearly identical to the Saints magical play of a decade ago? A flash TD always determines the point spread, and a 4th down conversion for a TD will determine the winner. When we took away the oddball plays and re-added the score, we find the Birds actually covering the spread down there. This was a good bet that went bad. Undoubtedly the work of ghosts from the graveyard the Superdome is built over.
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We expect the Steelers defense to play well at home, and we expect the Cards D to play like the Cards D. If just one of these units lives up to expectations we should see this one come in. The Cards have been the beneficiaries of some gift touchdowns. Well be happy if Vick is simply ineffective, and not downright generous. With Pittsburgh at home and neither side in the habit of making mistakes, this should be a tense, slow ball game.
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Pit/Cards
UNDER 45 |
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N/A
Computer Projecton |
| HIT: Pit 25 Cards 13 |
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content below posted 17:00THU15OCT15 cst
The MNF play may have been our best of the year so far. A nice road dog that would've come in even without the clock shenanigans at the end of the game. Did GRIDLINE predict that the Steelers would get a Pick-Six? Back through the picks and see for yourself.
This one is all about the Saints D. They have some good kids over there, but the complicated schemes work against them. The Saints never have been defensive minded. It's even worse when the defensive minds they do have aren't up to the task. At some point, we expect the experienced Falcon offense, led by Matty Ice, to break the Saints defense. Their sophisticated passing attack requires a certain defensive gameplan, and we don't think the Saints brain trust is up to it.
The Saints do have a great offensive weapon in Drew Brees but his supporting cast isn't as good as it used to be. Despite the big play in OT the last time the Saints saw prime time, they aren't a quick-scoring team. Without that constant threat, teams have been able to dial up blitzes to stop drives.
The prime time phenomenon surrounding the Saints appears to have kept this spread down. The human component of GRIDLINE emphasizes with the public. We try to resist it, but we also believe in the metaphysical at times. Not tonite. We're going to resist that urge and go with the road favorite.
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| Falcons -4 |
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N/A
Computer Projecton |
| MISS: Saints 31 Birds 21 |
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Good Luck Everyone!
Last Week
