GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2015 Season

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

	ATS Rec	Pct.	Chips Bet	Net Chips
DIVISIONALS	2-1-0	66.7%	4.4	1.9
Season to date	54-39-5	58.0%	121.45	17.25

content below posted 09:40SUN17JAN16 cst

Plays for Sunday nite

Incredible! During the season a huge Hail Mary by the Pack against the Lions cost us a play. Last nite, a Green Bay Hail Mary worked FOR us. The odds of us covering the teased total of 44 must have been well over 100/1 with :05 seconds left and needing 2 TDs. But it came through in our luckiest play of several years. In Foxboro, our bet turned bad even before the game started, when Andy Reid deferred the kickoff. It was 0-7 after the opening drive. This from a guy whose team returned the opening kickoff 106-yards last week when O'Brian deferred. And isn't it ironic that it benefited Belichek of the Pats, whose infamous deferment cost them the Jets game earlier this season. If these coaches are waiting for a study to show them that deferring is a bonehead move, there it is. Or they can just ask Marty Mornhinwig.

The best football in this contest is going to be played when Pittsburgh has the ball. It's going to be one of the better offenses vs. one of the better defenses. R'Berger's playing against a top notch pass D, but it's a pass D that has been faltering of late. On the other side of the ball, a rusty Peyton Manning goes after a suspect Steeler pass D. Neither team will be able to run, so the key factor might be the Steeler's pass rush, where that 7th ranked unit goes after an O-line that ranks 21st in protection.

We heard Antonio Brown might be out but we don't think the man is worth up to 5 points. Remember, when a starter goes down it's not his production that is lost, it's his production minus his replacement's production. In the "So what?" department, Denver is only 1-5 ATS as a home favorite. We'll up the bet a little because this looks like it's a live dog and we have the hook.

Steelers +7 1/2

Broncos 23 Steelers 21
Computer Generated BEST BET

HIT: Broncs 23 Pitt 16

"... it is something we've got to try to find a way to deal with." - Roger Goodell, when asked about scheduling west coast teams on the east coast at 10am their time. That was back in 2011 ... We're still waiting. In Roger's defense, he was speaking to a Seattle audience so he had to say this to keep the crowd from turning on him.

We're going to skip the afternoon game. It's our policy not to bet on west coast teams playing early. We do bet against them, but not when the system points their way. We looked around for signs that Pete Carroll had addressed the issue, but we haven't found any. Frisco, under Harbaugh, used to stay out east on back-to-back east coast games. Anyway, if the Hawks are ready to play it should be a great game

content below posted 17:00SAT16JAN16 cst

Plays for Saturday nite

It's a generous point spread at 7 1/2, but frankly, we don't see the Pack stopping the Cards. Its all a matter of Green Bay putting up some points. The Pack doesn't have the defense or the big passing game to challenge for Super Bowl L, but we're hoping Aaron Rodgers can put up some points on sheer will. The Pack is an experienced playoff team that should know how to play on in the face of adversity. We'll tease this doggie to make the spread much more attainable, and hopefully a late score will put us over a lower Total.

TEASER: Pack +13 1/2 &
Pack/Cards OVER 44

Cards 28 Pack 22
Computer Projection

HIT: Cards 26 Pack 20

content below posted 13:30SAT16JAN16 cst

Plays for Saturday

It's always nice to put an end to a nasty losing streak. Losing five in a row makes you want to hang it up. It's hard to see where your next hit is coming from. Our's came in Minnesota where the Vikes manhandled the Seahawks all day except for three plays, inexplicably losing the game but managing to beat the spread. That game was followed by the Green Bay HIT, which was one of our best plays of the season. We essentially wrote the game recap before it was played. There ain't much good to say about losing streaks except that they aren't as bad as they look, considering they are bound on both ends by hits.

The question for this game is whether the Pats run D will perform better than the Chiefs pass D. While the GRIDINE algorithm calls it a Patriots victory, the system is non-committal regarding the point spread. The computer system seems to think that the Patriots are going to get their passing yardage. When we take a closer look at the numbers, however, we see where KC only allows a 55% completion rate. That's incredible in this day and age. Also, we test ran the system using just weeks 7 - 16 of the regular season. That representative sample would reflect the Chiefs current 11-game win streak, and skip both New England's phone-in against the Fins in WEEK 17, and the Chief's rout in the Houston NO-SHOW last week. That forecast called it a 21-21 tie, with the Chiefs overcoming the HFA and making them a Best Bet.

It's almost sacrilegious to contemplate anyone beating the Pats in Foxboro in the playoffs. Even the GRIDLINE machine hasn't gone that far. If we didn't know that - traditionally - underdogs only hook the favorite with the spread 1/5 of the time, we'd consider this a good bet. Still, this is the year of the road dog.

Chiefs +5

Patriots 26 Chiefs 21
Computer Projection

MISS: Pats 27 Chiefs 20

Good Luck Everyone!

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