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| Broncos +5 |
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| Panthers 23 Broncos 22 Computer Generated BEST BET |
Tough play here, especially with the Pants walking over everybody they faced. It's made worse when you know you might go the Pants way if it wasn't for the points. Those post-season bettors sure do drive up the spread. It kind of forces you to one side.
Whether we're forced to Denver's side or not, the Broncs do look like a live dog - one that can win outright if the ball bounces fairly. They have the top ranked defense in the league. They are just as good against the pass as they are against the run. While the Panthers have a very good offense, it appears to us that much of their success depends upon them hitting on all cylinders. That's not going to happen. The Pants running game isn't going to be as effective as we've seen them against - well everybody. With the Broncos giving up less than 80 yards/game on the ground, it looks like they can contain them without overcompensating. That leaves Cam Newton to work against a full secondary. Cam throws a good ball but it's better when it's into areas of low traffic. In general, when the Pants have the ball, we'll be looking at the better football on both sides. and we suspect they'll have a tough time scoring.
When Denver has the ball the story is a bit different. Manning and company don't scare anybody, and Carolina's defense isn't bad at all. They rank in the top ten also. The Broncos, too, should score points haltingly. If push came to shove, we would have to admit that we don't know where Denver's points are going to come from. Somehow, they manage to score 21 points/game.
This appears to be a game of defense and big plays, and lots of field goals. With Newton capable of making those big plays with his feet, you almost have to figure Carolina will find a way to win. The thing is, Peyton Manning is also on the field, and he knows a thing or two about patching together a drive, and he's used to throwing against a full secondary. We expect more than a few people to be surprised at Manning out-passing Newton in this game.
Now this is going to be tough for Denver bettors to take but we feel obliged to mention it. The Pants are going to pick off Peyton Manning. Carolina is 2nd in the league in INTs, and the Broncs are 31st in avoiding them. It's a statistical mismatch. It would be nice to think that Denver will run so much that maybe it won't happen. But it will. Denver can't afford to waste plays trying to salvage a running game.
Finally, some good news. The Carolina defense can be had in the 4th quarter. We saw them blow a huge lead to the Colts in Carolina earlier this year when those big defensive lineman couldn't get off their blocks. If the Broncs lead after three forget it. It's in. With the real possibility that the the Pants could ride some big plays into a generous lead, there's still more than a decent chance that the Broncs can come back somewhat. And yes, if we knew the point spread was going to come down to a consolation TD, we'd take Peyton Manning.
