National Football League 2011 Season
Games of Week 12
| Plays for MNF, November 28th |
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The Giants will have their passing game but so will the Saints, and the Saints will have a running game, too. That should ensure a major advantage for New Orleans on the Time Clock. Eventually, after weathering those strikes by Eli Manning, we expect the Saints to wear them down. Let's just hope they do it well after they have the spread beat.
Things look pretty good for this one. In addition to the reports we place online we also track how we perform, and this Team X Team Performance report tells us how the system has picked these two teams. As you can see, the computer is 8-4 ATS when either of them play. We are going to keep this one at one chip for a couple of reasons. We have to buy it down to 7 at 12 to 10 odds and, despite the Giant's last two losses, the system's unofficial, month-long forecast did call for them to cover. Besides, the Saints are our local boys and we want to make sure we're not getting emotional about them. GEAUX SAINTS! |
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| Plays for Sunday's Games, November 27th |
| We DO like it when the system covers big spreads. The GRIDLINE computer only covers this one by 1/2 point, but the month long forecast calls it an Atlanta Best Bet. In fact, over the last four weeks the system considers Atlanta the 2nd best team in the league. There's a possibility the Vikes will run and Ponder will learn that his protection is in the pocket, but we don't see it on the road. All the dangers of a large spread exist here, including the prospect of a backdoor cover, so let's keep it at one chip. |
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The system says we should go with the Houston Best Bet but the system isn't aware that Matt Shaub is out. That's gotta hurt their offense, and the Jags have a good defense. The Texans have a good defense as well, and Jacksonville's offense doesn't scare anyone. This is a low Total but it is good for a minimum play. |
| This bet doesn't mean we have confidence in the Cards so much as it means we can't see the Rams beating anybody by more than 3 points, even if they are at home. These are two very similar teams. The Rams have been playing some decent ball of late, but the Cards have gone up against much tougher competition. The Rams might find the going a little rough flag-wise as the Cards are 3rd in opponents penalties while St Louis is 24th committing them. We might bet more but it does cost us 13 to 10 to buy this one up to three. |
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Yep, another one we have to buy DOWN to three. It's also a Best Bet, but the 4-week forecast points the other way. Anyway, the only effective unit we see out there is the Pants O. The last time we said that the Pants were against the Titans and they were a NO SHOW. C'est la vie, let's bite the bullet and make a minimum play on the road favorite. |
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No doubt about it, the Eags are a Best Bet. The system says they'll hook the Pats with the points. That's a little disheartening to us. You can't blame us for keeping this one down to a minimum play. This time, the system says we can count on an effective pass attack to accompany that Eagle running attack ... and we don't even know who the QB will be! |
| With the system projecting only 60 rushing yards for the Skins, when the spread dropped to 3 we decided to jump on it. One chip on the home favorite. |
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| Yeah, yeah, yeah, we know all about Tebow. We won with him last week. Despite the advantage the run game gives the Broncs, they come up woefully short in the passing department. The Chargers are at home and, unlike the Jets, they have quite the passing game. It's worth a chip. |
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| Plays for Thanksgiving Nite Game, November 24th |
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The 7 game winning streak is dead. Penalties and interceptions worked against us in the early game. It reminds us of two weeks ago, when we couldn't win anything. Old times.
This should be a good one tonite. Two great defenses going at it. San Francisco will try to control the game with their run game. Baltimore will wait for a short field to pounce. The only real advantage we see for either team is the Raven's pass rush. If they get a chance to use it - and they should with that top tier run D - they'll wreak some havoc. Frisco has a top tier run D, too, but they lack a great pass rush. Look for the Raven's passing game to be the difference in this one. We have to buy it down to 3 but the odds are such that it only cost us 12 to 10. There ain't no way we want to lay more than 3 to these guys. Call it one chip on the home favorite, and long live the new streak. |
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| Plays for Thanksgiving - Early Game, November 24th |
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Green Bay is a very good team that doesn't make mistakes, has a great QB and excellent receivers, and did we mention they're the reigning champs. That's what the Lions are going up against. But for all their accolades, the Pack doesn't have much of a defense. Against the pass, only one team gives up more yardage and, more importantly, only 8 teams give up more yards per pass. The Lions can move the ball both on the ground and in the air, but they choose mostly to do it through the air. On that front, they'll nitpick you to death, throwing short passes that amass a lot of yardage.
When Green Bay has the ball it's almost impossible to stop them. We say almost because they are vulnerable to sacks and Detroit has a pretty good pass rush. Detroit also has the best overall pass D, but Rodgers usually finds a way to score. Believe it or not, our biggest concern is a kick return. The Pack ranks 5th there while the Lions give up the 31st most yardage. A kick return could determine the outcome of this game but if the Pack does get one, keep in mind that Green Bay's offense may have scored anyway, and now they have to give the ball back to the Lions. How's that for optimism? The Pack is undefeated but we don't see any reason to treat this team as anything other than a good passing team with a suspect defense. Despite their troubles in preparing for some games the Lions are at home, and they seem like a more complete team where both the offense and defense rank highly. Call it two chips on the home doggie. |
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Good Luck Everyone!
