Jaguars +3 Jags 21 Chargers 19 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Chargers 38 Jags 14

It's hard to figure why the system leans toward either team. The visitors have one of the top offenses going against an excellent D, while the home team has no offense going against a bad D. Maybe the computer is just pointing to the team with the HFA. One thing we did notice was that the projection listed zero fumbles for Jacksonville. That's very unusual. We're generally inclined to increase our betting for a BEST BET, even if the pick is mysterious, but BEST BET's have not performed any better than the sytem in general this year, although the system has performed well. There are a couple of injuries in this one as well, affecting both teams. Most impactful, apparently, is the loss of the Jags starting corner. That's gotta hurt when you're going up against Rivers. We don't even want to talk about the coaching situations. One chip and we're out of this god forsaken week.

There were lot's of NO SHOWs again today, even by an officiating crew, and like week 10, again we went down hard. We're going to do an extensive study of them this offseason, but they do seem to come in bunches. In the same week, it appears. It's as if the God of Football looked down on the field and said, "Let their be NO SHOWs." Tonite, we've got two very disparate forecasts telling us conflicting things. If you count the whole season, the Lions beat the spread. If you look at just the last month, the Saints beat it badly. Same with the Total - over or under depending on the timeframe. So what to do. Well, the month long forecast basically calls it a NO SHOW, and with the way things have gone this week, we have to agree. The Lions can give the Saints trouble but we don't think they will. Not today. Anyway, the one way to satisy both forecasts is to tease it. Adding 6 to each value of the spread, let's go with the Saints minus a few points, and both teams UNDER a high total. That'll account at least for a Detroit NO SHOW, and also for this week's forecast.

TEASER: Saints -2 1/2 & UNDER 61 Saints 28 Lions 24 Computer Projection HIT: Saints 31 Lions 17

If both QBs are out that makes it a wash, doesn't it? Really though, this game is about the Chi-town rushing attack and not having to pass, and a Chiefs QB that should be facing pressure all day and throwing INTs. The weather is expected to be a little nasty - rainy, cold and windy - which could kill a passing game but we think the 15mph winds will only wound it. In other words, neither team's D should be able to stack the line so the Bears run game should stay intact. One chip on the home favorite.

Bears -7 Bears 30 Chiefs 15 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Chiefs 10 Bears 3

Redskins +3 Jets 22 Skins 21 Computer Projection MISS: Jets 34 Skins 19

These are two pretty evenly matched teams. The Skins can keep the scoring down, they're ranked 8th in the league in that department, and the Jets aren't exactly an offensive Juggernaut. We know about the Skins troubles offensively. This whole game should be decided on a turnover. We can't see either team winning by more than a FG, and that's how many points we have. Call it two chips, this time on the home dog.

We had the Bengals back in Week 08 when Pittsburgh scored a 4th Quarter TD to beat us. The score was tied at 17 before that TD just as we had figured. The same synopsis applies, but this time we'll feel better with the 7. Given these teams recent history you can't blame us for keeping the risk factor down. One chip on the road doggie.

Bengals +7 Steelers 23 Bengals 20 Computer Projection MISS: Steelers 35 Bengals 7

Browns +7 Ravens 23 Browns 18 Computer Projection MISS: Ravens 24 Browns 10

This one is similar to the Bengals/Steelers game. Lots of defense, hopefully. Although the Browns have holes in their rushing defense, Baltimore is not in a great position to exploit it. They have the 25th ranked run offense. It's unknown just how the Browns will score their points, but they are at home and it shouldn't take a lot of scoring to beat this spread. This is a losing team so we'll make it a minimum play.

We don't know what it is with teams playing the Packers. They just do stupid things. They don't have to throw a pick six or give them a 1st and goal on a penalty, but they do it anyway. No one ever tests that Packer D, which among other things, can be run on. Green Bay is a good team but not as good as their record indicates. This should be a simple matter of who gets more pressure on the passer, a matter the Giants should win easily. Green Bay is quickly becoming a major thorn in our side. We can't remember the last time we won betting against these guys. The Pack has been known to take advantage of headcases and as headcases go, the Giants are World Class. No way we'll bet any more than the minimum here.

Giants +6 Packers 27 Giants 25 Computer Projection HIT: Packers 38 Giants 35

The system is projecting pretty even numbers for the game tonite. The Eags have that run game but the Seahawks are surprising against the run, ranking 3rd in yards allowed per rush. And the Eags may have a few more completions - we say may because Vick is still out - but it doesn't translate into a big difference in total offense, and that O isn't particularly adept at matching points with yards. The Hawks offense isn't going to scare anyone but the D might perform well. They rank 13th overall in our power ratings and they are at home. As usual, we'll keep the betting down for losing teams but it looks like either team can win tonite. Maybe the points will come in handy. Make it a minimum amount on the home dog.

Seahawks +3 Seahawks 22 Eagles 20 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Seahawks 31 Eags 14

Good Luck Everyone!