| Plays for MNF, October 22nd, 2012 |
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Bad things seem to happen to teams that play the Bears. It's uncanny. They do have a good running back in Forte, and with a real QB and a good defense they are a formidable foe. The last time we saw the Lions they were coming back to beat the Eags in Philly. That's no easy task. We think the Bears at home can pass with the Lions, and that the running game of the Bears will make up the difference. The kick return game should set up the Bears with good field position most of the night.
It will rain in Chicago but not so much that it will dominate the game, at least not until late when the Lions should face the two-minute defense. Taking the Bears and looking for their run game to shine. Some of those strange INTs the Bears get wouldn't hurt, either. Call it a lite play on MNF. |
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| Plays for Sunday nite, October 21st, 2012 |
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This was a good bet earlier in the week but since then the line went from Steelers -1 1/2 to PICK. Now, the GRIDLINE forecast doesn't have a firm opinion. Unofficially, however, our experimental forecast - the one that ignores No-Shows - has the Bengals with a 4 point edge, 27-23.
We see the Steelers as the slighty better team Power Ratings-wise, but also one that hasn't won or even beaten the spread on the road. Both teams are projected to have the same Total Offense, just under 100 yards rushing and about 250 yards passing. We can see either team pulling it out, with just the home field tilting us slightly toward the Bengals. Ordinariy, we might tease this one the Bengals way, but with Polamalu out we'll go with the Bengals side in a tight game. We have seen how the Steelers secondary suffers when anyone is missing, and Polamalu isn't just anyone. For the record, PICK simply means a zero point spread, you still pay the juice if you lose. EVEN refers to the odds, you don't have to pay juice. With this game at PICK, we're betting 11 to win 10. |
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| Plays for Sunday, October 21st, 2012 |
| We're just looking for a tight, low-scoring game between these two. The Cards can't do much of anything offensively, but their defense does appear to be for real. It should take the Vikes awhile to get their running game going. We expect them to do so eventually, and probably win the game at home, but that's no way to beat a point spread. To be honest, hoping the points save you isn't a good way to win a bet, either. |
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The last time we bet against the Saints they won for the first time in Week 05, and we lost. That was actually a good bet we made on the Chargers, but the officials saw fit to call a pick-six back and later call an offensive interference against the Chargers. This time, naturally, we hope their are no such shenanigans.
As we said before, the Saints' defense makes their opponents look like the Saints. This time, although we expect lots of scoring from the Bucs, we expect them to do it on the ground. The Saints will try to do it through the air. Both teams will have success, but with the game in Tampa Bay we like the Bucs chances. That being said, we liked the Bucs chances a lot more when the line was 3. It has plummeted with their star TE busted up and the Saints are barely favored now. This is still a Best Bet, but we have to temper our enthusiasm and make a minimal play. |
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GRIDLINE must be nuts, right? After last week's blowout in Houston are we really going to bet against the Packers?
Well, yeah. First of all, Houston was a No-Show for that game. It looked mostly like no. 62 of the Texans was unable to play. No-Shows can happen when an every down starter, in this case a Guard, isn't doing his job. It doesn't matter whether it's because the player is injured or if he just got a hold of some bad bourbon last nite. He's got to come out quickly. They replaced him in the fourth series, but the Texans were already too far behind. A while back we spoke to our sports psychologist and he said that bad play was contagious. Sometimes, it can start with one guy. Anyway, we're sure Packer fans can't wait for another rout but they might be surprised by the quality of the Rams pass D. It ranks among the top seven in the league, and they have a top ten pass rush to go with it. Passing might be tough for both teams. If the Rams turn this into an old field position game, with their tough running game they might just win it. This is another Best Bet where the line is plummeting, down from 6 1/2 to 5, but this time there is room for a hook so we'll ante up 2-chips on a lite bet. |
| Why are we taking the Jets? We're not quite sure. We do run an unofficial forecast that disregards no-show games, and that one pointed more toward the Jets, calling it just a 7-point Patriot win. The Pats are a juggernaut offensively but they have been surprised a couple of times this year. We will say that the Patriots have some problems defending the pass. You wouldn't think that would matter against the feeble passing attack of the Jets, but didn't the Cards and Seattle have feeble pass attacks as well? We like favorites as much as anyone but this just looks like too many points. |
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| This one is a bit of a test since our line matches the LVH line. Our line rises to 7 when we eliminate No-Shows from both teams. We think at home the Raiders will be able to stop the Jaguar run game. Other than that, it's just Palmer vs. Gabbert. It's possible - maybe probable - that one of these teams won't show, but we're hoping it's the road team that has head problems. |
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| Plays for Thursday nite, October 18th, 2012 |
| There's only a point difference between Vegas' line and ours and our Total is the same, so this is anything but a solid play. We really don't have much info on Frisco because in most of their games either they or their opponents didn't show. We do know they like to run the ball. Seattle has some problems but a lax run D isn't one of them. The difference should be the passing game where we project Frisco to pull it out. We still like the Wilson kid. Taking the 7 1/2 points and hoping the kid has his best performance to date. |
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Good Luck Everyone!
