Games of WEEK 10

The official computer forecast points to the Chiefs by the slightest of margins while the recent history run had the Steelers by 17. This is one we'd pass on if we could, but we are gamblers as well as scientists, so we'll go with the Teaser. Subtracting 6 from both the point spread (13) and the Total (40) makes it Pitt and the OVER. Rain doesn't bother us much when it's falling straight down but that field could be a problem. The Steelers' ground crew is either the worst one in the NFL or the best one, depending on how you look at it. We'll call it a minimum, Teaser level play on one of our least confident bets of the season.

TEASER: Steelers -7 & OVER 34 Steelers 29 Chiefs 17 Computer Projection MISS: Steelers 16 Chiefs 13

By the time the wind settles down at Soldier field, the rain will come in. This isn't exactly a Weather game but with two dominant defenses it may look like one. We can't say "When the weather dominates, take the points." There aren't any points. We'd love to talk about some obscure stat but we can't. Instead, we'll go with the home team. A minimum play based solely on pure Adreneline.

Bears -1 Bears 23 Texans 22 Computer Projection MISS: Texans 13 Bears 6

It's hard to get a bead on the Jets. Sandwiched between a rout of Indy and getting routed by the Fins, New York was pushing the Pats to OT in Foxboro. Before that they were scrambling for a backdoor cover against the Texans. Seattle is much steadier. Every week is a battle with these guys, and they usually come out with the 'W'. Maybe they'll come out with the 'W' this week, but if the Jets bring their running game it should be a war, and a wet one at that. The weather could dampen the scoring. When that happens the point spread is magnified. Taking the points with a road dog on a two-chip, lite play.

Jets +5 1/2 Seahawks 21 Jets 18 Computer Projection MISS: Hawks 28 Jets 7

For awhile we had this spread covered, then it went up. We don't like giving up that many points, anyway. We made a tactical error two weeks ago when we teased the Frisco/Cards game the wrong way. We missed that one. Whoever said 'Insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result' wasn't a gambler. We know about 'insane'. Still, as a nod to old adages we'll take Frisco this time. Subtracting 6 from both the 13 point spread and the 38 Total we get 7 and 32.

TEASER: 49rs -7 & OVER 32 49rs 25 Rams 13 Computer Projection MISS: 49rs 24 Rams 24

Bucs -3 Bucs 26 Chargers 23 Computer Projection HIT: Bucs 34 Chargers 24

Although our official forecast calls this a push we have some support from our Recent History forecast but really, this is a jet lag game. When we went online back in 2000 we never talked about jet lag publicly. It was only for our clients. Now that the commissioner blabbed about how unfair it was and how they were going to move these games to 3 o'clock next year, there's no reason for us to keep it the NFL's best kept secret any longer. Some teams, like Frisco after they had their own jet lag game in Minnesota, have learned to battle against the time difference. The next week the Niners stayed in midwest before creaming the Jets. Even if the Chargers do alter their travel plans, we still like the way the Bucs have been playing these last few games. Make it a lite, two-chipper on what could be one of the last jet lag games played.

Patriots -13 Patriots 38 Bills 21 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Pats 37 Bills 31

It's rare that a computer system covers such a large spread. So rare, in fact, that our Recent History and No-Show Forgiveness forecasts point Buffalo's way. We'd like this one a lot better if either one of those projections did support the Pats. Still, we're pretty sure New England is going to win, and the point spread doesn't come into play in most games. That spread has gone up dramatically so we'll temper our bet and plop just one chip down.

Broncos -4 Broncos 27 Panthers 21 Computer Projection HIT: Broncos 36 Pants 14

The Broncs face a borderline jet lag situation this week but last week they came through in a Cincy noon game, so we have a certain amount of confidence that they'll show. If they do, the key should be Denver's ability to limit Newton's passing completion percentage. That should mean more punts for the Pants. As we all know, punts against a Manning-led team can be deadly. Two chips on the road favorite.

We looked and looked but we couldn't find a reason not to bet the Bengals. The Giants have slipped in their pass coverage lately and the Bengals can be pretty effective in the air when they are not screwing up. So much so, that when we forgive the No-Shows they actually beat the Giants. It doesn't hurt that it is a little breezy. Wind seems to affect Eli Manning more than your average QB, which Dalton is. We expect Andy to win the passing contest, let's just hope the Bengals can keep the blunders down. Betting the minimum on the home dog.

Bengals +3 1/2 Giants 26 Bengals 24 Computer Projection HIT: Bengals 31 Giants 13

Vikings +3 Vikings 24 Lions 23 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Vikes 34 Lions 24

At its core, the GRIDLINE system is simply a combination of computer and human components. Humans may have programmed it, but they can't always determine why the machine went a certain way. That's the case here. We just don't know why it's pointing to the Vikes. It's probably got something to do with the Vikes history of kick returns and the Lions habit of fumbling into the endzone. Aside from that, anyone can see that the Lions are the better team. The Vikes can't even pass the ball! (Sigh) Last week we passed on a Best Bet because of travel concerns and the bet ended up winning. This week, we'll trust the machine, at least with one chip.

Again, we have a Best Bet where our Recent History forecast doesn't support the projection. Still, we can't imagine the Falcons being as inept as the Eagles were against the Saints last week. In other words, we can't see four 1st and Goals net a negative one point. The Birds are a well drilled team that isn't expected to turn the ball over an inordinate amount, and they are expected to win the possession battle, especially against the Saints, who are 31st in time of possession. Atlanta does everything well, if not spectacularly, while the Saints only saving grace is the passing game. Drew Brees and the Saints may have some success in the air but with Atlanta we expect a steadier presence - one where everything works. The Saints have a key injury to Darren Sproles. we don't like betting against Brees but this one looks OK with Matty Ice at the top of his game. Let's call it another lite play on the road favorite.

Falcons -2 1/2 Falcons 31 Saints 24 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Saints 31 Falcons 27

Jags +3 1/2 Colts 22 Jags 19 Computer Projection MISS: Colts 27 Jags 10

The Jags are only 1-7 this year but guess what? Their only victory came earlier this year against the Colts, in Indy. Also, we round the turnovers to the nearest integer and J'Ville had 0. In other words, the Colts can't buy a turnover. In Jacksonville, we expect that trend to continue. The kid Luck is a good QB but the team is still learning, and passing is their only method of moving the ball. The Jags at least try to run, and a lot of people might be surprised at Blaine Gabbert completing more passes than Luck tonight, even while attempting fewer and gaining less yardage. This game appears to be a dead heat as the Recent History and No-Show Forgiveness forecasts indicate. We are concerned about the loss of Jones-Drew, but it doesn't hurt that we have the hook. This should be a good, competitive game that any gambler would like to have action on. That doesn't mean we have to bet a whole lot. Let's call it the minimum on the home team.

Good Luck Everyone!