Games of WEEK 11

It will only be a little breezy and only a little wet so tonite's isn't really a weather game, but with two backup QBs it might look like one. We expect both teams to load up the line and force the pass. Stats pretty much go out the window when this occurs. It's more about who blinks first. As we've always said, take the points when the weather dominates. In this case it's take the points and hope our backup doesn't screw up as bad as their backup.

Bears +3 1/2 49rs 20 Bears 17 Computer Projection MISS: 49rs 32 Bears 7

Another QB out. This time it's Roethlisberger. He'll be replaced by Byron Leftwich, who is not a rookie by any means. We used to marvel at games featuring starters R'berger and Leftwich because the throws were so hard. Anyway, it looks like the Vegas oddsmakers have docked the Steelers a full TD at home for R'berger's injury. We don't think it's quite as much. We think the Steelers would have the HFA and be favored by 3 under normal circumstances, and with Leftwich starting it's something less. But 6 points? We don't think so. Maybe 4, then again Polamalu is out, too ... We might skip this one entirely if it wasn't the only game in town, and if we didn't need an excuse for turning Faith Hill on, but it is and we do. So we're down on a minimum play.

Steelers +3 Steelers 25 Ravens 22 Computer Projection PUSH: Ravens 13 Steelers 10

Patriots -9 1/2 Patriots 32 Colts 21 Computer Projection HIT: Patriots 59 Colts 24

This should be an air game as the Colts are not so great at defending the passing attack and the Pats defense against it is outright poor. Luck is trying to be Brady (What QB isn't?) and he might just make it one day, but this afternoon Brady should have more time to pass than Luck does. Lately, the Colts have been rolling so we'll temper our play, but a key sack or INT should bring this one in.

The system projects this one at 61 points, a full 6 points higher than the Vegas Total and the greatest margin on the sheet. There's not much to say, otherwise. There isn't a defense on the field. The field may be wet but there shouldn't be the offense stifling wind. Just hoping for an entertaining game.

Saints/Raiders OVER 55 Raiders 30 Saints 31 Computer Projection PUSH: Saints 38 Raiders 17

Broncos -8 Broncos 31 Chargers 19 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Broncs 30 Chargers 23

The Broncos are the hottest team in the league right now. Manning has had time to turn this into a Manning-type team, and it's possible that the Denver defense is as good as Indy's ever was. The Chargers have a good offense but they'll have to operate without the run and under good pass pressure. What's tough for the Chargers is that they bring a strong run defense into Mile High stadium when what they need is a really strong pass D. Their's is only average. It's perfect weather in that thin air in Denver. Both teams are banged up a little, not too much. This one is a Best Bet, a full 4 point difference between our point spread (12)and 'their's (8). We'll make it a full, 3-chip bet as well.

It's hard to forget last week's performances, where the Jets were a disappointing no-show after Sanchez's end zone INT. Someone should tell Jet's owner Woody Johnson that it's easier to "sell PSLs and Hot Dogs" if you are winning. And it's hard to forget the Rams pulling off an 'upset' tie, but forget we must. Gamblers need to have short memories. This one looks pretty even in the stats with both teams coming in with the same Power Rating whether it's season long or the last few, inconsistent week's. We'll keep the betting down because the Jets have emotional problems and they have to travel a long way from home.

Jets +3 1/2 Rams 21 Jets 20 Computer Projection HIT: Jets 27 Rams 13

A couple of weeks ago we had the Texans when we saw Buffalo play what might be their best game of their season. They still lost by 12 to the Texans, and by 2 to the spread. A similar thing can happen here with the Jags. This is a genuine Best vs. Worst scenario which we think is a difference of 17 points, anyway. Holding it to a lite play just because it's so many points to lay.

Texans -14 1/2 Texans 29 Jaguars 13 Computer Projection MISS: Texans 43 Jaguars 37

Redskins -3 1/2 Redskins 27 Eagles 23 Computer Projection HIT: Skins 31 Eagles 6

How's the new kid gonna do with do with all that time to prepare for this game? We knew this was coming long before Vick's alleged concussion. In a way, we'd like to see Vick at QB. At least he's a known commodity. All we know about Foles is that he's a rookie. We like to think Reid had a reason for sitting him so long, but we know coaches often have issues with loyalty and talent evaluation, and they sometimes sit players who should be starting. This one will be about who makes the best use of yardage. The Skins should be able to run with their top rushing attack going against an Eagle run D that's only average. The Eags should be able to pass against one of the weakest pass defenses in the league. It really is about the kid, Griffin seems like the veteran in this one. Make it another two-chip, lite play on the home favorite.

Panthers +1 Panthers 26 Bucs 24 Computer Projection MISS: Bucs 27 Panthers 21

This is the old Harpo Marx routine where the two QBs are mirror images of each other. They aren't playing against the same defenses, though. The Panthers are solid, if not spectacular, in all departments. And no one runs on the Bucs, but you can pass all day against them. The Pants big problem all year has been fumbles, it's exactly what the Bucs don't do. If they didn't have that problem we'd feel a lot better than we do. As it stands, we'll make it the bare minimum on this game.

If you want to move the ball against the Packers, you throw it. That's what the Lions do, and they do it well. If you want to stop the Packers, you stop the pass. That's also what the Lions do, and yes, they do it well. Conversely, if you want to move the ball on the Lions you run it. The Pack doesn't do that particularly well. The Packers just may be the best team in the league but in the Lions they have found the perfect storm. It doesn't hurt that the Pack is without three of their best players in Matthews, Woodson and Jennings, and it doesn't hurt that the Lions are at home. We've been burned a few times before by taking the Lions over the Packers, but we can't find any reason not to bet these guys other than metaphysical ones. Let's make this our first full play of the season.

Lions +3 Lions 25 Packers 26 Computer Projection MISS: Packers 24 Lions 20

The Chiefs should be able to run on the Bengals. Their running game is pretty much all they have but they'll be facing a team that's not very good at stopping it. It should add up to an advantage in time of possession, especially at home. The Bengals are facing a weak run D also, but they are ill-equipped to exploit it, although we are concerned about the pass. This game should come down to a turnover, and the Chiefs are the worst in both fumbles and INTs, but if you are going to throw INTs they have to make you pass first, and there's no rule that says you have to fumble. Still, betting on a 1-8 team just seems weird, so we'll keep our exposure to a minimum.

Chiefs +3 1/2 Chiefs 23 Bengals 24 Computer Projection MISS: Bengals 28 Chiefs 6

Dolphins +2 1/2 Dolphins 24 Bills 23 Computer Projection MISS: Bills 19 Dolphins 14

This should be a very close game, tonight. We say should because these are two losing teams and they don't often play to their full potential. There are so many management and coaching issues with these teams that it's hard to expect the players to give their best each week. But we do. Thursday nites can be fun, let's just hope a football game breaks out. If the Fins do show up for the game we expect them to bring a strong run D with them. That highly ranked unit will have to stymie the Bills own highly ranked run game if they want any chance at all. We suspect both teams will have a certain amount of success in this most critical of matchups. Other than that, it's the Fins bad offense vs. the Bills bad defense, and the Bills passing game shouldn't scare anybody. That is a pretty even projection but we expect the Fins to have two other advantages. One is the kick return game, where the Fins rank 4th and the Bills rank 29th defending it. The other advantage can be a lot less high-profile ... Penalties. The Bills appear much more likely to draw flags. We are going to keep the risk factor down because we are on a mini-losing streak. It's nothing to get too concerned about right now, but we don't want it to turn into one of those universal vortexes that suck up everything that comes into it.

Good Luck Everyone!