Games of WEEK 15

So many teams were just flat out not ready to start the games yesterday. Some, like the Rams, Ravens and Patriots, came around and joined the action - although too late - while others such as the Giants, Bucs, Chargers, Bills, Lions, Chiefs and Jags never did get off their cans. It's as if visions of sugar plums were dancing in these teams' heads when they should have been thinking about football. It could happen again tonight, to both teams, and nobody would notice. Neither team is a scoring juggernaut. With the point spread at Titans 1 we are open to bet either way because the system calls it a single-point Titans win. We looked at the stats seven ways from Sunday and we still can't see where either team has an advantage. This looks likee a case of which team will gift the most points to the other. The Jets generally have problems scoring but it looks like the going should be a little easier tonight against the defenseless Titans, while Tennessee will have to rely on their run game only. The Jets pass D should shut the Titans down. Since the system freed us to go either way, we'll go with that pass D. The price of freedom isn't exactly free, but it doesn't have to cost a whole bunch, either. Making a minimum play on the road team.

Jets +1 Titans 23 Jets 22 Computer Projection MISS: Titans 14 Jets 3

Patriots -4 Patriots 26 Niners 22 Computer Projection MISS: 49rs 41 Patriots 35

It doesn't look like either team is going to run tonight. The 49rs never did give up ground yardage, and New England game plans against it. The 49rs still should be able to exploit the Patriot's thin pass D, but give us Brady against even the sternest of pass D's, especially at home. It's really a matter of commitment. The 49rs could confound the Pats with a WR oriented attack, but we think they'll waste plays by giving it to Gore up the middle, similar to Houston's ill-fated plan. LVH lowered the spread to 4 today, and we wanted New England at home, anyway, so they don't have to push us tonite.

Panthers +3 Chargers 23 Panthers 22 Computer Projection HIT: Panthers 31 Chargers 7

This looks like an even game to us. It very much could end in a tie. Having 3 points in OT isn't as safe as it used to be under Sudden Death, but it's still pretty good. Look for the running games to cancel each other out and for Cam Newton to top Phil Rivers today.

Cowboys +3 (buy) Cowboys 23 Steelers 20 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Cowboys 27 Steelers 24

The more we look at this bet, the less we like it. The Cowboys are going against the best pass D in the league. All of our forecasts point to the Cows, but Dallas hasn't covered all year at home. The Vegas guys have seen fit to give us some more points, and we can buy it up to 3, but we still don't feel comfortable about it. The system affords more value to a team's schedule strength as the season progresses so that may explain the machine's eagerness. The Cow's schedule has been a bit stronger. What at first looked like a 3-chipper has us now reducing our expectations.

The Bears have a good rushing attack, while the Pack has had it's troubles stopping the run. And the Pack has it's passing game, but it's going against the strongest part of a good Bears defense. In other words it's strength against weakness vs. strength against strength. It should be good football weather and Cutler is back so he should be able to keep the Pack from crowding the line of scrimmage like they did against the Lions. We would dump on this home team except for the fact that the system is absolutely the worst in forecasting Green Bay games, for or against them. After last week's loss with the Ravens in OT we are compelled to buy this one up to 3 points from 2 1/2, though some outlets list it that way.

Bears +3 (buy) Bears 24 Packers 19 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Packers 21 Bears 13

Baltmore has a little trouble moving the ball and it's a good Denver D, but the Ravens do make good use of their yardage and they are at home. We suspect Manning and the Broncs will get their yardage, but not their turnovers. Flacco is 7th at avoiding INTs. Again, going with the home team and the points.

Ravens +3 Broncos 25 Ravens 24 Computer Projection MISS: Broncos 34 Ravens 17

Jaguars +7 1/5 Dolphins 24 Jaguars 18 Computer Projection MISS: Dolphins 24 Jags 3

In a way, it's not so bad that Jones-Drew is out. The Jaguars might be forced to do the right thing against the Dolphins. Miami is such a screw up that most teams just accept the lead and run the ball, keeping the games mercifully short. The Jags don't figure to be the recipient of many gifts Sunday in Miami, so they better be ready to exploit that pass defense. Even though the Fins rank 7th in passing yards allowed, they rank 20th in yards allowed per pass. Henne will start again. We can say that since he has come in the Jags have gone from the worst team in the league, to not quite the worst team in the league. It's weird to say that the Jag's passing game is better than Miami's, but with any run D at all the Jags should be able to keep it close.

Rams -3 Rams 22 Vikings 18 Computer Projection MISS: Vikes 36 Rams 22

We expect both teams to be able to run the ball in this one. The Vikes have the best running game in the league and the Rams should have a decent run game at home. The big difference should be a servicable Ram passing attack. The Vikings passing game isn't even there.

This should be a doozy of an offensive game. The Bucs have the best run D in the league, and the worst pass D. Something tells us the Saints will have their way through the air. Conversely, teams have found it easy going against the Saints defense. Most teams choose to attack the Saints on the ground and the Bucs should be no exception, especially with their low completion rate. In New Orleans, we don't think that run game will keep up with the Saints and one or two off-the-mark passes will spell doom for the Bucs. We'll buy it one down this time from 3 1/2, laying 6/5 odds like the Bears game.

Saints -3 (buy) Saints 33 Bucs 27 Computer Projection HIT: Saints 41 Bucs 0

A funny thing happened on the way to bet Atlanta. The line flip-flopped and now the Falcons are favored, and now were betting the Giants. That's really not very unusual. We could still pass on the whole deal but we do like that the Giants have posted similar numbers than the Birds, maybe even better, and they did it against a much harder schedule. Taking the road dog here for a couple of chips.

Giants +1 Giants 25 Falcons 24 Computer Projection MISS: Falcons 34 Giants 0

Eagles +5 Bengals 24 Eagles 22 Computer Projection MISS: Bengals 34 Eagles 13

We looked at the stats and this is definitely one we would pass on if the system wasn't pointing so strongly at Philly, and if we had some other game to bet. We can't really see anything other than the HFA that tilts to the Eagles. Maybe the run game will be there, but that's it. The Bengals are slightly above average in ALL departments, which makes them way above average as a complete team. They are definitely a Top Ten team as far as the system is concerned. Some kind of X factor appears to be at play, forcing the system to play the Eags. We don't know what it is, but we're committed to our computer system. It doesn't mean we have to play a bunch. Betting the minimum.

Good Luck Everyone!