GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2012 Season

WILDCARD PLAYOFFS



content below posted 01:30SUN06JAN13 cst

Plays for Sunday, January 6th, 2013

Long live the winning streak! We knew it was over when the NBC reporter announced that Ponder wouldn't play. We even tried to negate our bet with a play on Green Bay, but by the time we checked our Outs the spread had gone up to 10 1/2. Like the books, we don't like getting middled, either, so we decided to eat the loss. C'est La vie.

We did enjoy hitting 5 in a row dating back to last week. The odds of that happening are 63 to 1. And if we have to lose, let's lose when we bet our minimum. On to today's games.

The Ravens are strong across the board. Not spectacular in any department, but slightly better than average in all departments. It makes for a very daunting opponent when they are at home. The Ravens score more than you would expect from an average team, and they give up fewer points. There's something to be said about teams like this.

We don't see the Colts having any success on the ground in this one. They don't have a strong running game anyway, but it appears that it won't be there at all. Luck is a good QB who keeps his wits about him, but it looks as though he'll have to pass too much. We discounted turnovers some this year because they are so unpredictable, but the Colts yield an INT every 35 passes on average. It's like every pass will be another step toward a turnover, and the only way to avoid it is to run the ball, which they can't do anyway.

We'll need the Ravens to generate some points with those long, slow drives and continue their habit of taking care of the ball. Hopefully, when a turnover does occur they'll be there to take advantage of it.
Ravens -7
Ravens 29 Colts 21
Computer Projection
HIT: Ravens 24 Colts 9

Redskins +3
Seahawks 25 Redskins 22
Computer Projection
MISS: Seahawks 24 Redskins 14
This game might look a lot like football was meant to look before the NFL switched to Arena Ball rules. There may be punts and field position concerns and - Dare we say it? - more running than passing. The Seattle defense is just awesome, led by the best pass D this league has seen in years. The Skins D is better than they look on paper. It's excellent against the run but only average against the pass. Did we mention that both these teams like to run more than they pass?

Most defenses have failed miserably trying to figure out that Redskin option offense, which is getting better each week. Ends in the NFL have been told to get sacks and crash down the line against the run. Against the Skins, a Defensive End needs to hold his ground. Washington has turned that position into a skill position. In a way, it doesn't matter if the Skins opponent has a highly ranked defense.

We are probably not as impressed as we should be about Seattle's last month of the season. December featured several routs by Seattle including one over San Francisco. It is our opinion that while routs are good for the winner, they reflect mostly on the loser of those games. Still, we do expect Seattle to look good at times, running some here and passing some there. It should keep the game close.

Pretty much everything depends on the point man, RG3, in this bet. We could tell he was slowed against Dallas but when asked how his leg felt he said, "Not as bad as last week." We are basically betting a full three chips on how healthy he is. Taking the home dog in this one.

content below posted 13:40SAT05JAN13 cst

Plays for Saturday, January 5th, 2013

Just for fun, we ran the GRIDLINE algorithm through the playoffs to see who might win the big one. The biggest surprise may have been Seattle causing a bit of a stir, but ultimately the big guys made it in. The eventual Super Bowl winner turned out to be New England, beating the San Francisco 49rs 26-24. Enough speculation about what might happen in a month, we want to speculate about what might happen today!

Earlier this season, it was enough to say there was Houston and there were a bunch of other AFC teams. Over the last month things have changed. Lately it appears that Houston and Cincy have changed uniforms. If that trend continues it'll be a close, close game in Houston.

The Texans have been having game plan problems. Over the last couple of years, the control passing team has found the run, and they became a control running team. What the coach failed to realize is that ANY team can stop the middle dive play, it's just a matter of devoting resources. Opposing coaches have done that, and the Texans haven't had a Plan B. The 'pound it into the middle' routine has gotten old.

In any event, now is the time for Plan B. The Texans are still the better team, albeit slightly, and having the HFA should spell victory at home. It's time to dust of that control passing game. If they can still do that - if they remember how - it should be enough to get those Bengals out of the middle. Cincy can be stopped for the better part of the game. Their offense relies on a level of execution that only happens sporatically.

Both QBs figure to be under a lot of pressure today. Whoever can function in that environment will win the game. Call it a lite play on a team whose biggest weakness is imagination.
Texans -4
Texans 26 Bengals 21
Computer Projection
HIT: Texans 19 Bengals 13

Vikings +7 1/2
Packers 28 Vikings 22
Computer Projection
MISS: Packers 24 Vikings 10
First, the good news. Minnesota goes up against a defense that is made to order for them. Green Bay, while strong against the pass, is weak against the run. The Vikes hardly ever pass anyway. Now for the bad news. The game is in Green Bay, and that passing attack figures to pile up the yardage against the Vikes. If Minnesota DOES let the Pack receivers get behind them, it's going to be a Lambeau Leap festival.

It's going to be cold, tonite. The Pack will be throwing a hard ball. It might sleet. The Pack could be throwing a heavy ball. We'd be all over the Vikes if we had 7 1/2 points in a weather game. Without the wind, this one falls just short of that promise. We are going to try to hook these guys with the points - don't try this at home. Make it a minimum play.



Last Week

Good Luck Everyone!