DIVISION PLAYOFFS

This is the kind of game we skip during the regular season. We just don't like to bet jetlag teams. Over the years, we've won a lot of money betting against them. Asking a west coast team to play at 10am THEIR time is just too much. Jetlag doesn't always happen, but it happens enough to make us shy away. Other than that, this is about as good a bet as we have seen all season. If they do get off the plane, Seattle figures to have an opponent that's made to order for them. The Falcons have become a passing team this year. They throw the ball more than 60% of the time - that's more than the Pack - and they face the strongest pass D in the league. The Hawks are 9th in INTs, 5th in yards allowed and 3rd in yards per pass. The Falcons, meanwhile, rely on their 5th ranked passing attack to generate the 7th most points. Matty Ice can kiss his 68% completion rate goodbye in this one, as the Seahawks only allow 57% completions. It doesn't get much better for the Birds on the other side of the ball. The Seahawks run-based offense scores just as much as Atlanta, and they'll be facing a run D thats ranked 21st, 29th in yards per rush. The Birds accumulated their stats against the easiest schedule in the league, while the Seahawks had one of the toughest. Ordinarily, we'd bet heavy on this game but we can see ourselves losing this one just because of the jetlag factor. Dan Marino said yesterday that no team in this situation has won in the playoffs since 1989. That's enough to make us temper our bet, but not lay off it altogether. These ARE the playoffs. Make it a lite play on the road dog.

Seahawks +3 Seattle 23 Falcons 20 Computer Projection HIT: Falcons 30 Seahawks 28

One thing we have learned over the years is that if you want to hook the favorite with the points it's a losing proposition. On average, that only happens 1 in 5 times. We may be trying to do that today, but 'average' or not, we can take solace in the fact that the higher the spread goes, the higher our chances are of the points coming into play. We did a thorough analysis of this game a couple of month's ago when these two met in Foxboro for the first time. You can step back through the previous links if you want to see it, but the result of the game was a no show for the Texans. The game was lost the previous Tuesday when the Houston coach thought he could play a man-to-man, high-pressure defense and a middle-dive offense. At least this time Kubiak knows what won't work against the Pats. Our projections say Houston can almost match the Pats yard-for-yard with New England winning by virtue of making better use of their yards. They can generate more points, but we see a competitive game at times, and maybe we'll get the ball last. Let's call it a minimum play and buy it up to to 10.

Texans +10 (buy) Patriots 32 Texans 24 Computer Projection MISS: Patriots 41 Texans 28

It looks like the only working component on the field today would be Manning's passing game. Baltimore is solid moving the ball but that Denver D should preclude any long drives, and Denver's running game piles up yards but it's mostly because they always have the ball, and the Raven's pass rush isn't anything to crow about. That leaves just Peyton to do what he does, namely throw every pass in the book. We don't feel good about taking the points even though our official forecast points that way. This week's alternate forecast, where we determined the HFA based on Broncos home and Ravens away performances, showed Denver winning by 10. That's a pretty impressive margin of victory for any computer system. The only things we like about this game is the cold, maybe snowy, weather and the Ravens focus on ball protection. Most games are tainted in one way or another, usually by bad officiating, FG kicking or sideline decisions. We wouldn't mind if the weather interferes with this outcome.

Ravens +9 Broncos 28 Ravens 21 Computer Projection HIT: Ravens 38 Broncos 35

Green Bay has been a thorn in our side this whole season. We only bet 'for' them twice. Once was their only no-show of the season, and once was the Seattle debacle. We bet against them a lot and they always seemed to come out on top. We're going to bet against them again in today's game, so feel free to file this in the 'They'll never learn' department. This game should follow the same script as last week's Ravens/Colts game, but on a higher scale. We just don't think those flanker streak routes that Rodgers throws so well is enough to combat Frisco's relentless running game. Kaepernick is still a little wild but he should be able to execute those against-the-grain routes that eat up time and yardage. We do like short spreads and this one has been holding at 3. We have had our problems with both these teams but if a football game does break out it should go our way. Taking the home guys on a full play in this one.

49rs -3 49rs 25 Packers 20 Computer Projection HIT: 49rs 45 Packers 31

Good Luck Everyone!