Games of WEEK 01

We passed on the Redskin/Eagle game. It's a cinch if RG3's ready, it might be a cinch for Philly if he's not. That's how we got in troulble taking the Skins against Seattle last Year. Our only game left is the Texans/Chargers. We don't skip Monday niters, so we'll do some guessing of another kind. We know the Texans are coming back with their staff intact and some exciting new player additions. The Chargers are much more mysterious with a new coaching staff. Again, this is like the Green Bay game, they have to show us they're organized and that the players are buying what their selling. Even if they are, the Chargers have to execute plays that Houston has mastered over the years. The Texans do have problems game planning, but maybe they'll be a little smarter defensively with Reed back there. It should be a fun game, but really, there's nothing solid to go on here. Even the oddsmakers have chugheed, going with a spread somewhere between the common numbers 3 or 7.

Texans -5 N/A Computer Projection MISS: Texans 31 Chargers 28

We are so looking forward to Carrie Underwood's debut as the new SNF girl. That video comes at exactly the right time, and every week. We've seen glimpses of previews. Carrie has a powerful voice and a body that doesn't quit, and she rocks a pair of pleather hotpants for at least part of the song. Like Faith Hill before her, she is not to be missed. Oh yeah, the game. All we know for sure about these two teams is that they are very similar and that they both know each other well. These teams are EVEN. Either team can win every time they get together, and we can always expect a good, close ball game. We're gonna go with the Giants because they are getting the points. The oddsmakers can justify the 3 1/2 because of the HFA, but we don't think the home field is an advantage in either venue. In fact, even though the Cows won the opener last year in New York, the Giants beat them in Dallas, and they've won the last 3 in Dallas. History-wise, we don't see a HFA. Still betting the minimum, one chip.

Giants +3 1/2 N/A Computer Projection MISS: Cowboys 36 Giants 31

Early in the season we don't usually reach for a play in the afternoon, even on NFL Sunday, but this was our best play of last season (see it here) in the playoffs. All of the same reasons apply, although we don't intend on making another triple play. It's possible that Green Bay's defense is much improved this year but we'll have to see it to believe it. It's also possible that if we lose, it'll be because of something strange occurring, or Frisco just not being ready to play ANYBODY, which would be pretty strange for their home opener, anyway. We'll risk another chip on the home favorite. It's going to be a hectic Sunday but don't forget to check GRIDLINE here for tonite's SNF game.

49ers -4 1/2 N/A Computer Projection HIT: 49RS 34 Packers 28

Broncos -7 N/A Computer Projection HIT: Broncos 49 Ravens 27

The point spread is finally right for this game. One touchdown. Last season in the playoffs it was 9 points and we took the Ravens, then this season it opened at 9 again. Just this week the bettors bet it down, showing the oddsmakers the error of their ways. It was supposed to be 7 all along. As for the game itself, as excited as we are there's not much to go on. It's a new season and these are new teams. We ARE aware of some changes. You expect to see Elvis Dumervil in Mile High, but in this game he'll be starting for the Ravens. Ray Lewis is gone, so is Ed Reed, the perennial anchors of Baltimore's D. On Denver's side, as we mentioned, The King is dead, Champ Bailey is hurt, and Von Miller is serving a suspension. That's not to say both teams have declined measurably. The new guys, including a couple of promising draft choices, will have a say in that. Despite the changes we are inclined to approach this as just another Bronco/Raven game. It's really hard to stop Peyton Manning, who may be the best pure passer the game has ever seen. Baltimore is unspectacular, but they move slow and sure, and rarely turn the ball over. Both teams play solid defense. One of the things that cost the Broncos the Divisional Playoff earlier this year was coach John Fox's attempt to squeeze the air out of the ball in the 4th quarter. That can't happen again. If it does, the Broncs will lose, again. A quick check of our Churn Chart shows the Broncos do have a new offensive coordinator this year. Maybe he'll be a good influence on Fox. As we said it's the right point spread, but the 2013 football season doesn't start without GRIDLINE so we are compelled to bet it, at least for a small amount. We think Denver will win, and when the favorite does win they usually beat the spread - about 80% of the time, actually. We're taking the home gang minus the full TD for the minimum, one chip. By no means would we advise laying more than the 7 so buy it down if you must.

Good Luck Everyone!

CORRECTION: We were inaccurate in saying when the favorite does win they usually beat the spread - about 80% of the time. That 80% includes all winners, both favorites and underdogs. Historically, when the favorite wins it beats the spread about 70% of the time. Sorry about any confusion.