Games of WEEK 04

Dolphins +7 Saints 21 Dolphins 18 Computer Projection MISS: Saints 38 Dolphins 17

This isn't a strong bet by any means. It's one of the rare occasions where we go in with the expectation that we'll need the points in order to cover. Most of the time when we take an underdog we like to think they'll win outright. In many ways these are the same team. The Saints are excellent at passing and defending the pass, the Dolphins are good at passing and defending the pass. Both teams are weak against the run, but neither team can run the ball. The Saints have an edge in the QB protection department, and they do figure to win the Time of Possession battle. It's enough to carry the Saints at home, but the real question is "How many points separate the excellent from the good." If the Fins are going entertain thoughts about beating the spread they'll need turnovers. The one thing that truly impressed us is that the Fins intercept 1 in 25 passes. Thats well above the league norm of 39, and a hurried Brees does throw INTs. Also, with the Saints running the bulk of the plays you have to figure on multiple INTs. It ain't much to go on but that's the play. We're drowning in these night games. Our hunger for action causes us to sacrifice any gambler's greatest advantage: Selectivity. It doesn't mean we have to bet more than the minimum.

This is a suspicious looking line so we won't fool around with the Side in this one. The Total, however, looks fairly decent. The GRIDLINE algorithm thinks this one will go UNDER a generous Total of 49. The main thing we want to see tonite is Punts, and we're projecting 6 for each team, which is higher than the league average of 5.1. It should be an entertaining game. We wouldn't think of betting more than the minimum on this one.

Falcons/Patriots UNDER 49 Patriots 21 Falcons 20 Computer Projection MISS: Patriots 30 Falcons 23

Everything points to Oakland in this one, even the Schedule Strength. About the only bad thing regarding this projection is that it's so early in the season. We're hoping RG3 is still being kept under wraps by Shanahan. Without the threat of him running, the Skins are back to 2011 form. RG3 needs that Safety to play on the line otherwise he's tossing INTs his way. Going with a lite play here.

Raiders +3 1/2 Raiders 30 Redskins 22 Computer Projection MISS: Skins 24 Raiders 14

Broncos -10 1/2 Broncos 38 Eagles 21 Computer Projection HIT: Broncos 52 Eagles 20

That's a nasty hook, the half-point. We considered buying it down but opted instead to reduce our risk factor in this one. Denver is a juggernaut, but they are as susceptible to that late - in this case, it could be meaningless to non-bettors - score. It's a good bet that when everyone else has turned away from this game, GRIDLINE will be on the edge of its seat. Absolute minimum for this play.

We got busted by the Niners returning somewhat to form on Thursday, and it could happen here with the Giants, but our forecast is telling us the Chiefs will out gain, out possession and out run Giants. We'd like to believe that Reid, unlike Fisher in st. Louis, is starting the right players. About the only thing that the Giants have shown this year is their passing attack, which can be formidable, but a team needs their QB to be standing to pull that off. The Giants rank 26th in passer protection, while the Chiefs lead the league in Sacks. It's time to ratchet up the action this season so we'll go with two chips but that's still a lite play by our standards.

Chiefs -4 Chiefs 34 Giants 12 Computer Projection HIT: Chiefs 31 Giants 7

Colts -8 1/2 Colts 25 Jaguars 12 Computer Projection HIT: Colts 37 Jaguars 3

It's hard to give up a lot of points after we got Pushed last Monday nite laying 16, but we'll never learn. There aren't very many things that the Jags do well. They don't fumble much. You'll recognize the Colts because they're the one's with the ball. Runs and short passes result in the 10th best time of possession and the fewest punts in the league. We're hoping again that the Dog doesn't come up with a late TD. Nowadays, that's more likely than ever. Just the one chip on the heavy road favorite

Rams +3 Rams 25 49rs 21 Computer Projection MISS: 49RS 35 Rams 11

GRIDLINE managed to get through it's early season 'intuitive' phase at 6-5-1 ATS. It's pretty good considering that breaking even is a good thing to do between win streaks. Of course, breaking even is a rotten thing to do between losing streaks, but we did have a lot of fun. Now that it's week 3, we finally get a chance to use our computer data and wouldn't you know it, our teams have a history of NO-SHOWS - the Rams last week and the Niners the last two weeks. It's the kind of data we disregard, and since the blowouts constitute a large part of the teams' history, this is the kind of bet we disregard. But it's Thursday, and this is the only game in town, so we plug away. These teams are so discombobulated that we really have no choice but to go with the home team. The numbers are so bad that when we spit them through our algorithm it produces average performances from both teams. About 100 yards rushing each, and 250 passing. A few turnovers among them and 46 total points. Average. The only edge going to the Rams via the HFA, as you would expect. Come to think of it, that sounds like a good game. Lets hope it turns out that way. We haven't taken a close look yet at the remaining games. We may or may not designate some Best Bets among them by Sunday. For now, this one is anything but a Best Bet. Going with the home dogs on a minimum play.

Good Luck Everyone!

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