Games of WEEK 05

Just when you think you're flying high a No-Show comes along and sends you right back down to earth. That 5 game win streak was nice though, while it lasted. Tonite we're back to playing the primetime matchups, which are killing us even though we bet less on them. This is definitely a game we'd pass on if we had a choice. It's a losing proposition to try to hook the favorite with the points. An underdog wins straight up more than the points come into play. Just look at our picks yesterday, where we had three underdogs and they all won straight up. This game might be more like Jacksonville at the Rams, a game we had the luxury of skipping. We're volume bettors, we don't skip MNF. The thing about the Jets is that they gain their share of yardage, but they don't get a lot of FDs and they don't score a lot of points. It's like they can't string big plays together between turnovers and punts. The Falcon's D can be had, but it doesn't look like the Jets are the team to do it. The Birds will have trouble with a good Jet D, but they still figure to score with that passing attack, and collect enough points off turnovers to win. Anything can happen. Maybe Matt Ryan will throw an INT on his first pass. That's happened a few times against us. Maybe the Birds will work the clock instead of opting to beat the spread. We've seen that happen. What'the Heck, call it a minimum play on the Jets.

Jets +10 Falcons 27 Jets 20 Computer Projection HIT: Jets 30 Falcons 28

Frisco can be scary with that read option offense, but we expect Houston to match them yard for yard rushing the ball. The big difference should be in passing, where the Texans figure to have an edge, although it's more about Houston's pass D than anything else. The game looks likes a huge struggle for possession of the ball, a struggle we think the Texans will win, barring turnovers. Speaking of turnovers, the Texans are way overdue to have some come their way, and the 49rs have been known to give the ball away, even at home. We've had a lot of success with the Best Bets this week and we aren't about to stop now, although the Texans are in Frisco. Let's call it yet another lite play as we try to capitalize on the early action. It's hard to say if we'll play the Chargers/Raiders game tonight. We don't have a clear side, and as we speak we don't know if we're still on the winning streak. If we are, tune in for some late action. Whenever you're winning you want to have more action. Stay tuned.

Texans +4 1/2 Texans 26 49rs 2326 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: 49RS 34 Texans 3

TEASER: Broncos -1 1/2 & OVER 50 1/2 Broncos 33 Cowboys 26 Computer Projection HIT: Broncos 51 Cowboys 48

We don't have much of a play here but since it's pretty much the only game in town we'll try to tease it into a halfway decent bet. We really can't bet against Denver, betting against an undefeated team is equivalent to betting for a winless team. That's math, actually. We will subtract 6 from the 7 1/2 points Denver needs to cover, and subtract 6 from the 56 1/2 Total since it's always a nice day in Cowboy Stadium, making it so the Broncs just have to win by a little and both teams have to score OVER 50. We're just drinking up the action and enjoying the game. Call it a minimum play and let's hope Denver is Denver.

The Saints have immediately returned to form after Goodell imposed a paid vacation on coach Sean Payton. Now, the highest paid coach in the game has his team in the driver's seat for the HFA throughout the playoffs. Almost no one can stay with them when they're on their game, but if a team were to give them trouble, it would be at the team's own stadium in poor weather. Cue the Bears, in the rain, in Chitown. The Saints offense is all about the pass, and a Chicago pass D that ranks toward the bottom of the league isn't going to stop them. The Bears do intercept the ball well, but with the 31st ranked pass rush in the league ... No. Offensively, the Bears are indeed, potent. They are very well balanced. While we see the advantage they have with the rushing game, we don't think it will be enough. The Saints have one of the better pass D's in football, and they do apply pressure in spurts. Turnovers will always bring us down, and the Bears are among the best at collecting them, so we want to be careful. It doesn't help our cause that Brees will be playing with a heavy ball but remember, it's not rain that grounds a passing game, it's wind. Playing lite in what is essentially a PICK game.

Saints -1 Saints 29 Bears 23 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Saints 26 Bears 18

Colts +3 Seahawks 20 Colts 19 Computer Projection HIT: Colts 34 Seahawks 28

If this game goes to form it should be the best football being played on Sunday. We rank these teams as 1st (Colts) and 3rd in our objective Power Ratings. There's going to be a lot of running plays in this game, and there may be talk about - Heaven forbid - field position. It promises for a great, nostalgic, trip back to the late Sixties. Both teams will have lots of wrinkles, but this game should be about steadiness. Indy will run, and run, and run, sprinkling their short, controlled passing game into the mix. Seattle will run, and run, and run, sprinkling much longer and even fewer pass plays in between. Seattle's pass defense is the stuff of legend, while Indy's is just very good. Both pick off passes with the best of them. With both teams trying to control the ball this game may turn into a FG war, in which case the 3 points may come into play. We have talked in the past about the unfairness that the schedulers build into schedule, with west coast teams having to cross multiple time zones to play at 10 am their time. It's a subject we used to not talk about publically until Goodell let the cat out of the bag. He said he would address the problem one day. To this date he hasn't. We would like to think it works to our advantage in this instance, but Seattle has already played games early on the road. The travel factors are already built into the algorithm. These Seahawk guys are good! Call it lite play on what should be a great game.

Eagles +1 1/2 Eagles 31 Giants 26 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Eagles 36 Giants 21

Both teams come in with poor defenses thus far, so we expect either team to have their way offensively. That means it's Eli's passing vs. the Eags wide open offense. If both teams are effective we still expect Philly to run more plays with that hurry-up offense. It's an offense that includes the league's No. 1 ranked rushing attack. Keep an eye out for a good kick return from the Eagles, as the Giants have been stung a few times this season. At one point we were getting 3 with the Eags but it has been bet down to 1 1/2. We were going to make our first full play of the season. We still like it, but not quite as much as before. Call it a lite play on the road team.

It's hard to believe we're getting points here instead of giving them. The last time we said that was the Miami/Atl game where the Falcons missed a 35 yard FG in the last quarter that would have iced the bet for us, and the Fins went on a time consuming 75 yard drive to win the game and, much more importantly, beat the spread. More recently we put a chip on Miami in the Monday niter against the Saints. The Fins lost that one when their coach Philbin made a couple of questionable decisions (Deferring the KO, utilizing a 3 man rush, etc.). Technically, it was a No-Show, which are often caused by an every down player fucking up, but in this case it was caused by the coach, who is, an every down player. That's basically what's going on here. We kinda expect the Fins to score their 23 points, but we think the Ravens will find the going against the Fins more to their liking. The Fins defense isn't that good. We have them ranked 26th in our objective Power Ratings. While an exceptional coach can get an inspired performance out of his defense at home, we don't consider Philbin to be in that class. Maybe Joe will defer the kickoff again. The 3-point spread gives us a decent, 2-point Spread Differential with our computer score so let's call it a lite play on the visiting Ravens.

Ravens +3 Dolphins 23 Ravens 22 Computer Projection HIT: Ravens 26 Dolphins 23

New head coach Rob Chudzinski announced this week that journeyman Brian Hoyer will be the Browns starting QB. DUH! It could be the most obvious move of the NFL year. When's the last time a new starting QB won his first two for Cleveland? For that matter, when's the last time any QB won two in a row over there? This should be an interesting game in Cleveland. Buffalo comes in with a 2-2 record and their own new (this year) QB, just like the Browns. One team will come out as a legitimate contender in the AFC. The game is hard to call, with the Browns no longer being the automatic losers that misused Josh Cribbs his entire career. There are new managements for both teams, and new coaching staffs to boot. This one should be a close game, with either team's fortunes hanging on the head coaches decisions, both in preparation for the game and on the sidelines. Relying on a coach is about the last thing we want. The GRIDLINE computer says the Browns should have the more productive passing game and should eke it out with that good D at home. That may be true but our human component thinks it could go either way, with turnovers, as usual, being the main determinant. What the computer doesn't know is that there are thunderstorms in the area, and some rain and the field could make the ball slick. With 3 1/2 points we like our chances with the Bills, but not enough to up our bet. One chip again on the road doggie.

Bills +3 1/2 Browns 21 Bills 19 Computer Projection MISS: Browns 37 Bills 24

Good Luck Everyone!

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