Games of WEEK 06

Colts -2 Colta 27 Chargers 18 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Chargers 19 Colts 9

Simply put, we think this is case of one of the very best teams in the league vs. a dangerous but ultimately below average team. The Chargers get a lot of FDs and score some points with their passing attack, but that's about it. They'll be facing one of the best pass D's in the league, maybe the best when you consider they are 5th in Sacks. The Chargers do protect Rivers well, and their barely adequate rushing game may look average against the Colts run D - their only weakness - but the Chargers need to crank out FDs with that passing attack and we don't see that happening. Offensively for the Colts, we have them rated at no. 3. They run half the time, they pass half the time, and half their passes double as runs. Some might say their passing numbers are bad, ranking 24th in passing yardage, but we wonder if it's not the exact passing attack needed for this offense. The Colts will go against a Charger D that we rate as dead last in the NFL. Their only 'good' numbers are Sacks and Points Allowed, where they rank 16th and 19th. We don't think they can stop the Colts even at home. Anything can happen. Luck can throw a pick-six right out of the locker room. We were wrong when we thought Geno Smith's light had come on, maybe Luck's will go out. This one looks good, but we meet a lot of bettors who call this midseason, we call it the first half. Later in the season this might be a Heavy bet for us, for now, it's a lite play.

Cowboys -5 1/2 Cowboys 33 Redskins 23 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Cowboys 31 Redskins 16

These teams have relatively weak passing D's so both teams figure to put up some points tonite. The big difference appears to be in the running game where Dallas' D puts up some pretty impressive numbers, ranking 4th in yards allowed, while the Skins are 31st. In a nutshell, the Cows can expect to gain more yardage rushing than they're used to, and the Skins can expect less. We have had trouble betting these teams so far this year, and we have had trouble betting the Sunday niters so we'll tone it down a bit. When our Recent History reports come in after Week 07 we'll have all our tools at our disposal and our risk factor should go up. For now, let's call it another minimum play on the home favorites.

The good news, for us anyway, is that Pittsburgh can't run the ball and will have to pass behind a leaky line.The bad news is that the Jets' best defender is injured. We expect Pittsbugh to get their points, maybe even near the league average. It's when the Jets have the ball that were counting on production. Geno Smith is coming off his best performance ever, doing his impression of a young Warren Moon. He should have a good running game to support him as the Jets are above average there and the Steelers have been pushed around a bit, ranking 26th in run defense. Make no doubt about it though, we are betting that Smith's light has come on and those unforced errors from the first few games are a thing of the past. It's a bouncy line and we're still betting lite, but the home team looks good.

Jets PICK Jets 27 Steelers 18 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Steelers 19 Jets 6

Panthers +2 Panthers 23 Vikings 23 Computer Projection HIT: Pants 35 Vikings 10

The Pants have had their problems with some defenses but the Vikes shouldn't put up much resistance, even at home. We are worried somewhat about the Vikes offense, but Carolina fields the better D. There is a statistical mismatch in Time of Possession, where the Pants rank 4th and the Vikes rank 29th. This one isn't a Best Bet but we can't think of a reason NOT to take it. Go Pants! A minimum play on these road doggies,

This is one of those occasions where GRIDLINE picks the team that loses the Total Offense battle to win. We've looked and looked but it looks to us like Green Bay has a lot of advantages. It will be a passing game, and it could be that the team that realizes that 1st will win. One place where Baltimore does have an advantage is in the pass rush, where the Ravens rank 3rd. The Pack ranks 19th in protection. It's a Best Bet but we're only going to play the minimum in this spot.

Ravens +3 Ravens 27 Packers 26 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Packers 19 Ravens 17

Here's another game where the Total Offense numbers are stacked against us. We usually don't do this but we're going to try to hook the Niners with the points. The Cards are every bit as good as the Niners on D, it's the offensive numbers we worry about. The Cards have no numbers. We don't know where Zona's points are going to come from, but if their D shows at all, we won't need many points. We've got 11 already, we'll probably need 14 more. Maybe Peterson will return one for us, he's been known to do that. Absolute minimum here.

Cardinals +10 1/2 49rs 24 cardinals 17 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: 49rs 32 Cards 20

This should be a great game between two excellent teams. The Pats have had their troubles scoring this year, mainly because their passing game has left them. They have relied on the run this year, which isn't a bad thing to do against the Saints. The Saints, on the other hand, are known for their passing attack. New England is pretty good against the pass, but not the kind of good it takes to stop the Saints, even in Foxboro. In fact, this could turn out to be the classic pass vs. run contest. That all washes out in the end but the Saints use that passing attack to control the ball. They are the league leaders in Time of Possession. Even if they don't cross the goal line as much as we're used to seeing them do they figure to eat up lots of time and at least keep it close. Should it come to a time when both sides need to pass, we'll take the Saints. Betting two chips on the road dogs, again.

Saints +2 1/2 Saints 20 Patriots 18 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Patriots 30 Saints 27

The Giants' problem this year appears to start at the line of scrimmage, on both sides. The Giants end up looking small when they can't sack the QB or cream the runner. On the other side, the O-line can't protect Eli, much less open holes for whoever the RB of the day is. Manning performs as well as anybody under duress, but no one can be expected to perform week in and week out under those circumstances, and even if your skill players are good they can't get the ball if your QB is on his butt. The Bears field a very good and balalanced offense that scores nearly 30 ppg, and the Giants give up even more. In fact, as good as the Bears numbers are offensively, the Giants give up the same numbers defensively. In Chicago, we expect the Bears to score their points. Can the Giants score over 21? They couldn't against the Eags, and the Eags D is worse than Chitown's based on our Power Ratings. At home, we expect the Bears to keep the Giants score down. We were going to bet two chips on this Best Bet but the 1/2 point hook is unsettling. Instead, we'll play the oddsmaker's game, laying down 13 to win 10 to buy back the half-point, so we're actually risking 1.3 chips to win 1. Call it a minimum play on the home team.

Bears -7 (buy) Bears 37 Giants 22 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Bears 27 Giants 21

Good Luck Everyone!

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