Games of WEEK 08

Rams +14 Seahawks 26 Rams 16 Computer Projection HIT: Seahawks 14 Rams 9

One of the downfalls of being a computer system player is that we are compelled to take teams that have no possible - no humanly possible, at least - way of winning. That's the quandary we're in tonite, with only the GRIDLINE computer on the Rams. This could easily be the best vs. the worst in the NFL. The Rams are so poor, in fact, that we don't even know if it's a good thing or a bad thing that their QB is out and they're starting some kid. One thing's for sure, bettors think it's bad because this spread has been bet up to 14. So who is Kellen Clemens? He's a journeyman backup QB who has had a few starts with non-spectacular results. If we had to say something nice about him - aside from being the 49th player taken in the 2006 draft - we'd say in college he broke Dan Fouts' records at Oregon. In any event, regardless of what fan's think they know, this guy isn't some wide-eyed rookie QB. Again, we're going to sacrifice this one to the football gods. It looks like a matter of how long the Rams can keep the home field adrenaline going, and whether or not Pete Carroll wants to work on his two-minute defense. Don't try this at home, betting the minimum, one chip on the home dog.

This point spread, too, has dropped and we're not sure why. It could be injuries, but we know Aaron Rodgers will play, or it could be history, the Vikes won in Vikes-land last time they played. We don't consider the series history when we make a play, every team is different each season. We do know that ALL of our forecasts, which consist of our Official forecast and the Recent History and No-Show forecasts, all predict a Packer victory by at least 8 points. The Pack's weakest spot is their pass D - it might be their only weak spot - but it doesn't appear as if the Vikes are the type of team to exploit it. On offense the Pack can do it on the ground as well as through the air. It should look unstoppable to the Vikes, a team that yields the 2nd most FDs. We hate to say it, but if something were askew this is almost exactly how "they" would do it, with the spread moving downward, opposite the steam, and still enough points to provide room for the home team to cover, and not win. This is a high-profile game, however, and Vegas does like to gamble themselves, so maybe we're being a little too cynical. Still, let's play it safe and reduce our risk factor to the minimum.

Packers -7 Packers 33 Vikings 22 Computer Projection HIT: Pack 44 Vikes 31

Broncos -11 Broncos 45 Redskins 28 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Broncos 45 Redskins 21

We can't see any reason not to make a full play on this one. It' a Best Bet, both our Recent and No-Show forecasts support the call, the Broncs are at home on a clear day, and the FD and Total Offense projections are in our favor. The Redskins have improved dramatically on offense these last few games as RG3 has gotten healthier, but offense won't slow the Broncos down. In particular, a team needs pass defense to have a chance against the Broncos and at one point the Redskins had the worst secondary in the league. RG3 can generate good offense with his legs but he's no match for Manning in passing - nobody is. We're just hoping the turnovers are nearly even this afternoon and the Broncos don't give up a consolation TD.

This point spread has dropped a full point, so even though our original forecast points to the Jets, we're going to flip-flop and bet the minimum, one chip, on the Bengals. It's hard to figure the Jets' Geno Smith, who seems to be on a one on/one off schedule. We're hoping he's 'off' this time. The Bengals have become much steadier this season as has their execution on offense. This is a real test for our Recent History forecast since that is the only reason we're taking this one.

Bengals -5 1/2 Bengals 25 Jets 19 Computer Projection HIT: Bengals 49 Jets 9

These are two evenly matched teams. Pretty good defenses. The Raiders run, the Steelers pass. About the only difference in the numbers is the Schedule Strength, where the Raiders have accumulated their stats against a much tougher group. Still, we could see this one going into OT and being won by a FG, hence the Buy. Just a chip here on what might be a push.

Raiders +3 (buy) Raiders 21 Steelers 20 Computer Projection HIT: Raiders 21 Steelers 18

Jaguars +14 1/2 49rs 26 Jaguars 16 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: 49rs 42 Jaguars 10

After a little shakiness earlier in the season Frisco appears to have returned to last year's form and Jacksonville, they continue to be Jacksonville. If it were just the players screwing up we'd feel better about this play, but really, it's the coaches and management who are to blame for the state of affairs down there. About the only thing we have got going for us is the jet lag factor, where Frisco will be playing at 10am their time, but even young Harbaugh now knows it's an obstacle that has to be addressed. We have to play what the system feeds us when it comes up with a Best Bet, but we don't have to like it. One chip on the home dogs. Correction: We made quite blunder when we missed the London location for this game. Please disregard this capsule if it's not too late. It's definitely too late for us, we're stuck with it. None of the forecast numbers are what we intended because there is no home field advantage.

All anyone can do against the Chiefs is run the ball. The Browns do have an average running game, and we can expect them to get some yardage on the ground, but we don't see how it will be enough. The Chiefs simply don't allow first downs or points. You could say the weak schedule makes them look good, but this Browns team is the type of team they faced all season. Our expectation is to see the Chiefs with the ball whenever we look. For a team that doesn't turn the ball over, that's pretty good. There's not much of a spread differential between our 8 points and the oddsmakers 7 1/2, but we do project this as a win by more than a TD. Playing lite on the Chiefs. Buy it down to 7 if you have to.

Chiefs -7 (buy) Chiefs 23 Browns 15 Computer Projection MISS: Chiefs 23 Browns 17

Patriots -6 Patriots 25 Dolphins 18 Computer Projection HIT: Patriots 27 Dolphins 7

It's only point difference between us and THEM, but it approaches a key number. It looks like the Pats will see their offense at home. This year it means working off the running game before passing. We don't expect the Dolphins to keep up, especially with the 31st ranked pass protection. Going with another lite play here.

We do like it when the system covers big spreads, and this play does in a pretty big way. Buffalo has a decent pass defense, but with the Saints in the Dome that isn't enough. If your a Bills fan, you'll want to play keep away, but you would be keeping away the fact that the Saints are first in possession time, while the Bills are 29th. TheSaints are vulnerable to the run but they generally don't allow a complimentary passing game. It's hard to see FDs strung together or big plays from the Bills. The only thing keeping this one down to a lite play is the late TD the Saints always seem to give up.

Saints -11 Saints 30 Bills 17 Computer Projection HIT: Saints 35 Bills 17

Cowboys +3 Lions 29 Cowboys 28 Computer Projection HIT: Lions 31 Cowboys 30

These are pretty much the same two teams. Lots of offense, fairly weak D's. Detroit looks a little better in our Recent History forecast - a very hot offense - but over the season Dallas puts together the stronger team. Expect a good game, this should pretty much be a passing war between Romo and Stafford. The 3 points look good with either team. Keep in mind that Dallas is the best ATS team this year. We'll go lite with the road doggies.

Eagles -5 1/2 Eagles 33 Giants 24 Computer Projection MISS: Giants 15 Eagles 7

There seems to be some skittishness among the bettors over Vick's hamstring, but the man IS listed as Probable in the Injury Report. Probable generally means a player is probably 100%. The Giants have gotten a little better over the last few games but it just means teams have to take smaller chunks of yardage. We expect Vick to keep up somewhat with Manning passing-wise, and we expect the Eags running game to be the difference. The Giants are also dead last in kick returns in our ratings so that may come into play. We've already hit the Eags in New York and we like it when a team wins in their place, so let's go lite even though our later data shows the Giants improving.

Bucs +7 Panthers 20 Bucs 15 Computer Projection MISS: Pants 31 Bucs 13

We almost wish we could be in the locker room to tell the Bucs that they don't have to be a bunch of Fuck Ups for this game. It does appear that the Bucs can stop the Pants bread and butter, their run game, without devoting extra resources to it. It should be enough to keep the score down. The Bucs aren't known for their pass rush but the Pants rank 28th in protection. Maybe at home they can generate some pressure. Offensively, the Bucs can't do too much but at least the turmoil is over. Glennon does appear to be a decent pocket passer and although the Panthers have a highly ranked D, those numbers seem to be inflated by no-shows from the Vikes and Giants. It's a case where the Pants aren't quite as good as they look, and the Bucs aren't as bad as they look. Now watch them drop the ball on their one yard line. No, we won't risk more than a chip here.

Good Luck Everyone!

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