| Plays for MNF |
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Yesterday, we had to give up the cash when we made a genuinely bad bet on the Cowboys. The data was there, we just didn't see the Vikes dominating the game with with their rushing attack. Tonite's score is similar, but we took a second look and the Pack does have the defense to stop the Bears on the ground. That still leaves the possibility that the Bears will be effective passing, but we don't think so with journeyman and perpetual backup Josh McCown as the QB. When the Pack has the ball we do see a good rushing game, along with the usual spectacular passing game. In effect, the Bears won't be able to stack the defense either way, so we see the Pack as a virtually unstoppable force at some point.
Hopefully, the Pack will start fast but even if they don't they should eventually break the Bears. It may rain a little but the offense-killing wind won't be there. The line is large but it has dropped to 10 so we don't have to buy anything. The Pack has a good ATS record and they are at home, so lets make a lite play on the only game in town. |
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| Plays for SNF |
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Sorry about the late entry but a day of losing distracted us. And it ain't over. We like to label our losing Sundays so we'll call this one "Bloody Sunday" in keeping with the Halloween theme. Besides, we already used Black Sunday years ago. As for the game, it looks like the late money - some call it the 'smart' money - has come in on the Texans. Those players may have seen what we see, namely that the Texans have the edge in offense and all they need to do is hold onto the ball at home to win. It's been a day of opposites so we'll just sacrifice this one to the football gods, again. It worked for us last week. We wish we had a smaller chip but this is the minimum we play. |
| Plays for Sunday |
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The Panthers have become one of the very finest teams in the NFL while the Falcons have become one-dimensional. What the Falcons get, they get by passing. And it's really just an average passing game. The Birds accumulate yardage because they pass so much. The Pants have one of the good pass D's in the league so we don't see Atlanta's passing offense scoring a whole lot of points.
Carolina's running game is kinda like the Falcons passing game, just average, really, but there are so many attempts they control the game with it. The Pants are tops in Time of Possession. The passing attack for the Pants is actually very good, probably because they hardly ever pass. Atlanta has one of the worst run Ds in the league, maybe the worst, so it looks like if the Birds want to stop that running game they'll have to devote extra resources to it, and Carolina will have easier going thru the air. This looks like a pretty strong play but those are lot of points and the system doesn't point really hard at Carolina. Plus, the odds are such that we have to lay extra juice at 6/5 to keep it at 7, so we'll risk just the 1.2 chips. |
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These are two weak defenses but the only team that appears able to exploit a bad D is Dallas, with that sophisticated passing attack. The Vikes have all kinds of problems sustaining a drive, even when their run game is working. We just don't see Ponder keeping up with Romo in the passing department and, as a team, the Vikes won't take the points they're handed. Also, while both teams lead the NFL in kick returns, Dallas is the one that prevents them, ranking 4th, and Minny has its problems at 28th. If somebody does break loose on a return we suspect it'll be Dallas at home.
We hit on Dallas and against Vikes last week, pretty much calling the Dallas score. The system is 5-1 so far calling games for these two, and the Cows are the best ATS team in the league. Our Recent History forecast agrees with the play as well. All that can mean nothing but we'll try it again. It's a lot of points so we'll make a lite play on the home boys. |
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We're looking at defenses that can be run on, but the Rams newfound running game at home seems more likely to do it. The Titans can run the ball, but it's more about big plays than it is consistency for them, In other words, Johnson may break loose, but if the Rams secondary can catch him they may not give up points. The Total Offense is slightly to the Tits advantage in our projection but the FDs and possession time stats tilt toward the Rams. Our Recent History forecast shows the Rams with the running game. The Rams can be passed on but few teams, for whatever reason, choose to do so. The Titans don't figure to break that trend.
The actual game numbers look okay but we haven't been particularly good in capping these teams and the Titans do have a good ATS record, particularly on the road, where they are 3-0 ATS. Keeping this one down to a minimum play in what should be a good, close ballgame. |
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Attention: If someone finds the lost Philadelphia running game please return it to the Eagles. Sadly for the Eags, it doesn't appear that anyone will find it in Oakland, where the Raiders have sported the league's top run D over the last month. This week's starter is Nick Foles, who doesn't figure to find the running game, either. Oakland, on the other hand, can run the ball. They should be able to do so at home even against a solid Eagle run D. Both team's passing attacks figure to be lukewarm tommorow, so expect a low-scoring, tension filled affair.
We've done well predicting outcomes for both of these teams, and the Raiders are pretty solid this year in their ATS record. We don't like betting losing teams. Losers just don't take advantage of scoring opportunities like winners do. Still, the Raiders at home should be a decent, lite play. |
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| Plays for Thursday nite |
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For the past few years, Cincy has been impressive in spurts, moving the ball well during the few times they reached an optimal level of execution. This year, they reach that level of execution much more often. Nowadays, they can be considered the mini-New Orleans Saints - not quite as explosive, but with a better run defense.
Miami has a long way to go, but there are good players on that team if the coach will let them do the right thing. Miami's offensive numbers, as bad as they are, are the same as Cincy's defensive numbers, as good as they are. We suspect that Miami, at home, will realize their regular, sputtering offense. It doesn't look like it will be enough. This week we are featuring our Team X Team Forecast Performance report in the Exclusive Reports section of our menu. That listing shows the GRIDLINE computer is 5-3 ATS when we project an outcome for these two teams. Not bad, considering that our record with Cincy is 3-2 against the early line used for the Official Forecast. It fared better against the late line last week when the spread dropped and allowed us to bet the Bengals. It's Thursday, and even though we're ahead overall, we haven't done well on Thursday. Let's plop down the minimum one chip and hope our current 5-game win streak continues. |
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Good Luck Everyone!
Sorry about the glitch where last week's Tampa game overwrote this weeks picks after awhile. We'll take steps to see it doesn't happen again. And sorry about posting a loser, but we understand that all of our followers know that any game can be a loser. See you Sunday!
