| Plays for MNF |
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The Official and unofficial forecasts all call for the Bucs to cover but we don't really see it. Both teams are pretty much stuck with trying to run, and if the Bucs try to pass it looks like pretty tough sledding against a strong pass rush and a getting-stronger pass defense. About the only thing the Bucs have going for them is the possibility on an edge in Time of Possession, but look how far that's gotten them.
We had a rough Sunday and the urge is to push more chips forward, but it's an urge we have to resist. We don't ordinarily bet winless teams, and having to buy this one UP to 3 (actual spread 2 1/2), giving 13/10 odds, makes this a minimum bet on the home team. |
| Plays for SNF |
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All of our teams earlier appeared to be in the midst of a hysterical pregnancy, so you can't blame them for lacking concentration. Hopefully, the Saints won't feel so bloated tonight. Anyway, we can't change the way we play.
This should be a passfest if the teams are ready to play. The Saints look like a solid bet at home. It's just a matter of Brees vs. Romo, with the Saints actually fielding a secondary. We do worry about giving up a late, consolation TD. The Saints could have the worst 2-minute D in football, which is saying a lot, because ALL 2-minute D's are bad. In effect, we need a 14 point lead in the last minute before Romo executes the passing tree. As always, we need the Saints to hold onto the ball reasonably well. 45-yard fumble recoveries and 98-yard INT returns are out, as well as 60-yard PI penalties, as well as INTs in the end zone, as well as missed 32-yard FGs. In other words, we just need it to look like pro fuckin' football! We fell so far behind today that lite plays are our new minimum. Two-chips on the crazy drunks in the Big Easy. |
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| Plays for Sunday |
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We always like it when the system covers big spreads. This one is getting bigger as we type, but with the Tits at home and the Jags having their problems against the spread (1-7) we can't go any other way. We expect the Titans to run, and run, and run. Even if the Jags can somehow load up to stop it, we expect Locker to light them up through the air against an already weak pass D (28th in yards allowed/pass attempt). We'll need the Jags to piss away some points, but that's part of being 0-8 SU. Still, it's a lot of wood to lay so we'll keep the bet down to a minimum play. |
| The champ's big problem this year has been a lack of a running game and this time, even at home, it doesn't figure to be any better. The Bengals will have their problems running as well, but we don't expect a complete shutdown. They'll still be able to get their attempts in. Passing-wise, it appears to be a luke warm attack by the Ravens and a bit more efficient for the Bengals. In other words, we expect the Bengals to have it a bit better on offense. A bit better running, a bit better passing, a bit better on the scoreboard. We like to think the teams we bet can overcome a single extra turnover but this game isn't the case. Losing the turnover battle will lose the game for the Bengals so they better concentrate and hold onto the ball. Breaking even in turnovers is not too much to hope for, making a lite play on the roadies. |
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| Chicago has their QB back, which means no stacking the line to stop an excellent Bear running game. The Bears HAVE been vulnerable to the pass but at the same time they have led the league in INTs. They'll need them to quiet the Lions passing game. We were going to make a full play on this one but the line has moved considerably since the Bears QB has been announced, and relying on Cutler's toughness and hoping for INTs aren't the most solid capping strategies. The Bears are improving and they are the home team, so let's make a lite play here. |
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The Steelers cost themselves a few games trying to run the ball but we think they are over that now. The passing should generate more points for them, if not more wins. The Bills get E.J. Manuel back, which should mean more scoring opportunities and more they cash in on. This is slightly below the NFL average for a Total and our score projection is above the average, and the weather conditions aren't TOO bad in Pittsburgh, so we'll risk a chip here. |
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The Colts are banged up in the secondary but we don't think the Rams are the type of team that can exploit that, especially in Coltland. Indianapolis has had a rough few weeks so the home game is just what the doctor ordered. Look for the Colts to dominate on the ground with a pretty good run game going against a pretty bad rushing D. We're on Vegas side with this one as they are begging Rams players to buy the half-point. We like giving less than 10 in this one. Call it a lite play on the heavy home favorites. |
| Seattle injuries have driven this line down. We would definitely like a few more points but the trip east should take a lot out of the Hawks. If Carroll has already decided not to run his QB with the playoffs approaching - as he has done in the past - they can phone in the loss and save themselves the trip. This is really just a jet lag game so we'll go with the minimum. |
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These are the two same teams. Strong, QB-centric running games that dare opponents to come up so they can burn them deep. Smothering defenses. The only glaring difference we see for either of these excellent teams is the schedule strength, where Frisco has accumulated their stats against much stronger opponents. Otherwise the Pants numbers are as good or better than the 49rs. If it were just the HFA that Frisco had we'd be all over the Pants, but with the schedule strength and a few fairly significant injuries we can see the 6-point spread. Just betting the one chip on visiting Carolina but it should be a great game. |
| Offensively, we see a Texan advantage in rushing and particularly passing. The Cards have the advantage in kick returns and turnovers. It's enough to keep the Cards in the game, but eventually Houston should win it. Now, Houston has lost a lot of games that they have won the Total Offense in. In fact it's the mark of a losing team to lose to opponents that they have knocked around. Still, they don't have to drop the ball, they don't have to draw the flag, they don't have to miss FGs, and they don't have to play stupid. This game is theirs if they keep their head in it. We'll risk the 2 chips on them, it's their job to concentrate. |
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| The Chargers are a Best Bet in our Official forecast and our unofficial Recent History and No-Show forecasts as well. It's not so much that the system picks a winner, as it is that these are the same teams, like Frisco and Carolina. That's where the comparison ends as both these teams move the ball by passing, and they both feature weak defenses. We did notice that the Chargers like possession time a little more, whereas Denver could care less how quickly they score or how often they have the ball. We're not so much saying that the Chargers can stop Denver with that poor defense as we're saying the Broncs can't stop the Chargers with their own poor defense. There should be lots of balls in the air. The Chargers are a little scoring challenged but at home we expect them to push it across. The only thing keeping us from making a full pay on them is our human component, which has seen San Diego collapse against Manning-led teams on several occasions. |
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| Plays for Thursday nite |
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Very tough game to call. We think it's going to be close, but the line dropped and left us in luna hafafa. These are two defenses that can be had, and the Vikings offense has started to right itself after some QB difficulty. Ponder is the proper Vikes QB. We have been critical of him in the past, but it seems like during some time off he watched the Bradys and the Brees and the Rodgers step up into the pocket. We've been wrong about a QB's light coming on in the past but stepping up in the pocket is essential for an NFL QB. Ponder has always been able to pass. As for RG3, he can pass if he has a running game. Unfortunately, in most cases he has to provide that running game himself. It's something Shanahan doesn't want to see him do. We know Mike has nightmares reliving the injury last year but if he wants to compete he has to take risks. We are looking for both QBs to perform well in a close, fairly high scorer against weak defenses. This is a TEASER in which we shaved off 6 points from both the spread (-1 1/2)and the Total (49 1/2), so we have to hit both ends to make it pay off like a single bet, otherwise we lose. |
Good Luck Everyone!
