Games of WEEK 11

Panthers -3 Panthers 23 Patriots 17 Computer Projection HIT: Panthers 24 Patriots 20

We want to be careful with tonite's game because the one time the GRIDLINE computer bet against the Pats it lost. That was the Saints game a few weeks back. It's also unsettling that our "No-Show" forecast, the one where we disregard the runaways, points to the Patriots. Other than that, the bet looks pretty good. For what it's worth, the bettors as a group like to bet on the Pats just because it's the Pats, and that has kept the spread down a bit. The whole story of the game is the Pants defense. In particular, the run defense. Both teams like to run the ball, and both have averaged well over the league norm, but it's the Carolina D that shuts down the running game, while the Patriot run defense is almost bad. For New England to force Carolina to the air, it looks like they'll have to decimate a pretty good pass D, and Newton can pass well against a thin secondary. we can't write a capsule involving the Patriots without mentioning Tom Brady. Barring turnovers, it will take a superhuman effort on his part to keep this one close, although Brady is no stranger to superhuman efforts. Going with a lite play in what has been a great week, even with the penalty-laden Chief loss last nite. We'd hate to see more chips disappear but this looks like a good way to finish off WEEK 11.

Interesting game. The thing the Chiefs do well, run the ball, is the thing the Broncs defend well. And the thing the Broncs do well, pass the ball, is the thing the Chiefs defend well. You might consider it a wash if the game wasn't in Denver, and if the Broncs weren't the Broncs. Besides, the Chiefs don't run as well as the Broncs pass. It really looks like the Broncs will run away - or pass away - with the game, but we did notice that the Chiefs lead the league in sacks. Manning is among the best protected QBs, but we think the pass rush will at least unnerve Peyton, and it may slow the Denver scoring. If the Chiefs do what they do, score in scoring position, they could be pesky tonite. Just the one chip in a game where the visitor has to do everything right.

Chiefs +7 1/2 Broncos 28 Chiefs 23 Computer Projection MISS: Broncos 27 Chiefs 17

Dolphins +3 (buy) Dolphins 25 Chargers 23 Computer Projection HIT: Dolphins 20 Chargers 16

The Dolphins offensive line is decimated but this play is more about their defense. The Fins defense is pretty good, particularly their pass defense, which of late ranks 7th in yards allowed per pass. That should be bothersome for the Charger offense, which relies on their passing to score points. Even though the Fins O is pretty bad, we expect them to be able to sustain a couple of drives against a porous Charger D in Miami. This should be a very close game. We do rank the Chargers higher in our Power Ratings so you can't blame us for keeping the play to a minimum. The line going our way has actually forced us to buy the hook.

The Vikes have been playing well recently with their running game, but it's been the complimentary passing game that's made the difference. Playing the Seahawks, at home, with that secondary and pass rush should put an end to that. This isn't the Cowboys or Redskins defense. It's a huge amount of points and a real candidate for the consolation TD, so we'll temper the bet. Call it a minimum play that we won't feel good about until Seattle has a 21-point lead late in the game.

Seahawks -13 Seahawks 32 Vikings 17 Computer Projection HIT: Seahawks 41 Vikings 20

We're not sure how you stop the Saints passing attack down there in the dome, but it's a good bet you start with the pass rush, and the 49rs are lacking in that department. Their sack total ranks 22 leaguewide. Frisco does have a good secondary, but Brees should have the time to do some damage. When Frisco has the ball we expect them to run, and run, and run. If the game remains close the Saints will have to devote more resources to stopping it, but the secondary can probably afford this. Besides, sometimes a even poor run defense plays well at home. In any event, we think the 49rs will have to pass at some point and the Saints will take advantage of it. A little worried about Frisco's run game so we'll call it a lite play.

Saints -3 Saints 25 49rs 20 Computer Projection PUSH: Saints 23 49rs 20

There's not much to say about this matchup. It figures to be a weather game, with winds gusting over 20 mph and driving rain at times. These two teams are very similar, anyway, and the conditions should force both teams to plow into an overstacked line and try and hold onto the ball. We've got the home team, maybe their familiarity with the stadium will help them find calm pockets of air and high ground. We'll risk one chip on the Bills.

Bills +1 1/2 Bills 23 Jets 19 Computer Projection HIT: Bills 37 Jets 14

Bucs PICK Bucs 23 Falcons 20 Computer Projection HIT: Bucs 41 Falcons 28

This one is simply the run vs. the pass, with the Bucs hoping to control the ball for a huge part of the game. They seem to have found the right track with Mike Glennon throwing those short, high percentage passes to compliment a strong rushing attack. The Falcons will do some damage with their passing attack, but a quick score means they're kicking off to a team that wants to eat up huge chunks of clock. Making a lite play on the Bucs in a game where the point spread is moving against us.

This one doesn't exactly fit our definition of a weather game but it does look like a pretty bleak day in Pittsburgh. Something tells us the Steelers won't mind. There should still be lots of passing in this game, and it should be relatively pressure free - an oddity for R'burger. The Lions don't have much of a pass rush. Stafford, with his protection, figures to have time to throw, too, but we think that just makes it a wash. We've got to buy it up from 2 1/2 to 3 at 13/10 odds so we'll choose to reduce our risk factor to a minimum play, but the Steelers look okay in this spot.

Steelers +3 (buy) Lions 25 Steelers 24 Computer Projection HIT: Steelers 37 Lions 27

Eagles -4 1/2 Eagles 34 Redskins 26 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Eagles 24 Redskins 16

Both teams should be able to run their offense, these are two of the weaker defenses in the NFL. The Skins will win the Time of Possession battle, but Philly doesn't even play that game. They're content to run their full compliment of plays while losing the possession battle every game. The difference should be that the Eagles make better use of their scoring opportunities. The Eagles score touchdowns instead of FGs, while we've seen the Redskins not score at all from a 1st and goal (flashback to last week). In effect, the Skins seem to stop themselves while the Eags appear to have restarted after a nitemarish October. It should be noted that the Skins punt coverage team is the worst in the league. Dropping 2 chips on the home favorite.

It pays to be home if you're the Bengals. We should say it pays if you're betting the Bengals at home. They're 4-0 ATS there this year. Even with the two recent losses Cincy has put up some nice numbers, which is good because we don't like to rely solely on ATS trends. We need to forecast good Total Offense numbers. Our projections are good for the Bengals, while the Browns don't figure to get their rushing game going and only project to a 50% completion rate. Our biggest concern, aside from a 95-yard Pick-Six, has to be the weather, where we don't mind the rain as much as the wind, which approaches the grounding speed. We'll reduce our risk factor to the minimum and hope the skies calm a bit.

Bengals -6 Bengals 26 Browns 17 Computer Projection HIT: Bengals 41 Browns 20

Jaguars +8 1/2 Cardinals 23 Jaguars 19 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Cards 27 Jags 14

We usually don't bet on teams with records as bad as Jacksonville's, but we really can't find a reason not to bet them. It's not that we haven't tried. Sure, the Cards are projected to out-offense the Jaguars, but it's not enough to cover that point spread. Can the Cards out-offense anybody to the tune of nine points? It's about then that we looked at the geography of the situation and we see an advantage for the Jags. It's a jet lag game. That's enough for a minimum play. Just show up, Jags, maybe the Cards won't.

Titans +3 Titans 24 Colts 22 Computer Generated BEST BET PUSH: Colts 30 Titans 27

The only concern we have about this game is the biggest one, quarterback. Jake Locker is out for the year, and he has been replaced by his backup, Ryan Fitzpatrick. The QB going down can be a traumatic event - just ask the Packers - but in this case the Titans have what very few other NFL teams have, a capable backup. FitzPatrick is an experienced and smart QB who has led his share of scoring drives, even game winning scoring drives. He's not as potent as Locker, but not as reckless, either. Other than that, the Titans look good in this game. The Colts give up as much, even more, defensively as the Titans gain. We expect the Titans to be able to move the ball fairly well. It's a similar situation when the Colts have the ball, but remember that the Titans are at home. Both teams will fight to run the ball, but the advantage goes to the Tits if they can force the Colts to play an honest D. That's pretty much the whole question: Can Fitzpatrick exploit thin coverage enough to get the Colts to back off the line? If he can the running game will carry Tennessee. Sometimes we wonder if Mike Munchak wishes Locker would be a bit more like Fitzpatrick. Someone who is already in the mold of an NFL quarterback, rather than the wild stallion with great potential. This is a rare occasion where we won't discount a team's potential because their QB is down. This remains a Best Bet. We don't need a superstar performance from Fitzpatrick, just a steady one. Call it a lite play on the home dog Titans.

Good Luck Everyone!

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