Games of WEEK 12

Redskins +5 1/2 49rs 26 Redskins 24 Computer Projection MISS: 49rs 27 Redskins 6

Incredible game last night. Other than a couple of games, in the wins we have had lately we've been very fortunate. We'll need some more strange occurences to get past this one. To put it bluntly, we had more confidence in last night's game than we do in this one. All we can really hope for is that an improving Redskins run defense will come together to squelch the Niner's run game, and that Kaepernick can't exploit a weak Redskin secondary. We can see the Redskins scoring some points if Shanahan cuts RG3 loose, but this about the time last year that the Skins lost RG3 and their hopes to advance in the playoffs. It's kind of a catch-22, you can't make the playoffs without RG3 running the ball, but you can't do anything at all if he gets hurt. Anyway, we lost a couple that we could have won had it not been for the opponent's QB executing the passing tree against the prevent defense. It would be poetic justice if Harbaugh yielded a late Skin TD, even if it's just a consolation TD that beats the spread. Betting the absolute minimum here.

Patriots +2 Patriots 29 Broncos 28 Computer Projection HIT: Patriots 34 Broncos 31

This game should be a great one in the mold of an old Brady/Manning contest. Wait a minute ... this is an old Brady/Manning contest. Both of these teams execute so well the coaches are free to gameplan, and gameplan away they do. We give coaches a lot of grief - is Reid still doing that prevent defense thing - but both of these guys do the right thing more often than not. One thing is for sure, Belichick knows Manning's tendencies well. Going in, this game looks a lot like last week's MNF game, where the thing a team does well is the thing the other team defends well. In this case, tho, the Pats assume the role of the Pants on offense and their run game, and defensively they'll have to rely on a pretty good pass D. On paper, this game is a close mammy-jammy. Really, it could go either way and we want to have something on what could be a classic, so we'll make it a minimum play on New England.

The Giants have been playing the best defense in the last month. Don't believe us? Ask Mike Ditka, who said exactly the same thing on "Sunday NFL Countdown" this morning. That fact is also on display in our Power Ratings for weeks 08 thru 11. Not only do the Giants grade high in all of our defensive categories, but they are 1st in defensive scoring over that period. Our Power Ratings have been up since Wednesday, so we can't help but wonder if Mike is a follower of GRIDLINE. The Cowboys have gotten to where they are this season with the pass, but even that has left them recently, and the Giants have played good pass D all year. Add to those woes, the Saints and Lions exposed what may be the worst secondary in the NFL this year. That's not a good sign for the Cows when they have to go face Eli Manning. This play looks pretty good. All three of our forecasts point to the Giants, they are fairly healthy and they are at home. About the only substantial detriment is the weather, which is chilly and windy. We were prepared to make a heavy play but this is a weather game. Eli does have problems throwing those loopers in windy conditions. We'll go lite on the home team for this one.

Giants -2 1/2 Giants 28 Cowboys 24 Computer Projection MISS: Cowboys 24 Giants 21

Bucs +7 1/2 Lions 28 Bucs 21 Computer Projection HIT: Bucs 24 Lions 21

Our Official Forecast doesn't really think the Bucs can win this thing but it does see them covering a large point spread. That's not very impressive but it's our Recent History forecast we're interested in, the one that reflects Tampa's play since their QB situation stabilized. The recent Bucs appear to be in the same class as Detroit. The Lions do expect the passing attack to carry them, and it probably will, but it looks like the game will develop pretty slowly until Detroit does hit that big pass play. We might have more confidence in this one if it weren't in Detroit. GRIDLINE visitors know how strong the HFA is this year. We'll try and buck that trend but it doesn't mean we have to risk a whole lot. A minimum play on the road doggies.

The Chiefs are one of the GRIDLINE computer's favorite teams but lately we've noticed that they don't care much about the spread. Still, at home, we hope they'll take advantage of the opportunities they're given. The big difference is turnovers. The Chargers give it up, the Chiefs don't. We've said before, we can't really predict fumbles, but INTs are a different story. In particular, the Chargers throw an INT once every 44 passes, which is pretty good considering the league average is 37, but the Chiefs pick one off every 31 passes - an incredible rate. It's especially important when you consider the numbers on the other side are 90 and 70, respectively. That's pretty much it. While the Total Offense numbers may be about the same, we expect the Chargers to give up scoring opportunities and present them to the Chiefs. We have downgraded this game to a lite play because the system hasn't been very effective as far as these teams are concerned, and because of the dependence on turnovers. It's possible the Chargers will never have to throw the ball, but we're hoping the Chiefs will play decent run D at home.

Chiefs -4 Chiefs 26 Chargers 15 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Chargers 41 Chiefs 38

Browns -2 Browns 24 Steelers 20 Computer Projection MISS: Steelers 27 Browns 11

This one is close to being a weather game, but not quite. Cleveland plays 'weather game' football even on a nice day. Hard defense, ineffective offense. The Steelers depend on their passing game to move the ball but it doesn't look like that's gonna happen, not because of the weather so much as of the Browns genuinely good defense. The Browns are at home and they're the ones with the pass rush, so we'll make a minimum play on the home team. This game could turn out to be about punts more than anything else.

Again, it's pretty much the same weather as in Cleveland. Almost a weather game, but we don't expect the conditions to ground these teams. A little snow and less than 20 mph winds still allow for passing. The Jets have a decent running game but we don't see that happening in Baltimore. The Ravens are working their way back into last year's form, at least defensively. We can't see where the Jets points are coming from. We do expect the Ravens to complete a decent amount of passes, even if it's an unspectacular number, and being at home should help them push the ball across the goal line. What can we say, with turnovers evening out, in a defensive ballgame, we might win with a score of 7-3. Buying the hook and making a lite play on the home favorite.

Ravens -3 (buy) Ravens 26 Jets 17 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Ravens 19 Jets 3

We escaped with one on MNF (see Last Week), but we gotta take it, dem's da rules. We do a lot of analysis for each game, looking at the numbers and weather and injuries, but last week all we really had to do was take home teams, which, regardless of the analysis, is basically what we did. They killed last week just like they've been killing all year. Tonight, we were prepared to take the home team Falcons but, inexplicably, the point spread dropped from 9 1/2 down to 8 1/2. The spread was such that the system's preference arrow toggled, pointing to the Saints, now. We can't really get anything out of the numbers when such a good team plays a bad one, so we'll do a semi-copout and play a Teaser. with a 6-point teaser, the actual 8 1/2 spread goes down to 2 1/2, and the real Total of 53 rises to 59, allowing us to go UNDER. Teasers look like good bets no matter which way you go with them, but you have to hit both props, like a parlay, just to pay off like a single bet. More often than not, they don't come in. As we have said before (and proved earlier this season) , Vegas is generally off by 10 points with their point spread. That's what allows them to offer Teasers. You heard that from GRIDLINE.

TEASER: Saints -2 1/2 & UNDER 59 Saints 29 Falcons 20 Computer Projection HIT: Saints 17 Falcons 13

Good Luck Everyone!

Last Week