National Football League 2013 Season
Games of WEEK 13
| Plays for MNF |
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This is an odd game. You'd think that with the Saints offensive strength going against the Seahawks defensive strength and the Saints weakness trying to stop Seattle's run game that this would be a huge projection in favor of the Seahawks. The GRIDLINE computer does predict a Seattle victory, but not by the hefty margin that the spread suggests. We do expect the Hawks to run well but everybody has to pass sometime, and the Saints figure to have the pass rush. The Saints own passing game will be stymied - these are two very good secondarys - but Brees should have time to throw so don't expect a complete shutdown.
We don't see this as a weather game but we are glad to have points if it turns out that way. On the other hand, we'd like to say the Saints have a shot at winning without turnovers, but it looks more like we're trying to hook a generous spread. The Recent History forecast does reflect the rushing advantage for Seattle. It should be a great game. Buying up from the 6 1/2 spread at 12/10 to get it to 7 and betting the minimum. |
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| Plays for Sunday nite |
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The system was really on the fence with these two packs of bunglers. All of our forecasts, official and otherwise, call it a close, close ballgame. GRIDLINE is basically confirming the Vegas call, so we'll do what we do when we absolutely have to play this type of game. We'll play the Teaser. Adding 6 to the Giants +1 real spread, we get the Giants +7, and subtracting 6 from the 45 1/2 Total gives us 39 1/2. A Teaser pays 10 to 11 just like a flat bet, but only if both props hit.
We can almost feel the blunders coming, but we'll need each team to capitalize on them. Just betting the minimum to have a reason to watch Carrie Underwood hop around in something other than petticoats. |
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| Plays for Sunday afternoon |
| We're still reeling from KC's defensive collapse last week, along with their insistance on playing the prevent defense in the last minute. That could happen again this week, but we expect the Bengals highly ranked pass D to show. The Chargers do have a good offense, but the Bengals are the team that's fielding the defense. This could be a case of which team has the ball last since both teams have similar total yardage stats. The Chargers are used to having the ball, but they are facing a Bengal team that usually wins that battle as well. Making a lite play on a shaky road team. |
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| Okay, we'll bite. Originally the algorithm was pointing to the Rams, but the point spread dropped 1 to point barely to the Niners, and with buying the hook we don't have to give more than a TD. The Rams have been playing good ball lately but they are headed for Candlestick and the 49rs seem to be returning to the 'nobody runs on us' gang that we knew last year. We do expect Frisco to dominate on the ground. This is projected to be close, and 'buying' means 12/10 odds in this case, so we'll keep it to a minimum bet. |
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| Plays for Sunday early |
We do our share of whining about losses that shouldn't have happened, and the Steelers/Ravens game fits the bill. Yeah, we know, the Ravens promised pass rush didn't materialize, but seeing as how we only got hooked by a single point we think the complaint is legitimate. The photo clearly shows Mike Tomlin interfering with Jacoby Jones' attempt to return the kickoff for a TD. The penalty for such a "palpably unfair" act: The awarding of a TD to the Ravens. That wasn't done, the Ravens eventually kicked the FG, and in the end we got hooked by the point. After the "NBC Nightly News" was kind enough to point out the error, the NFL is considering fining Tomlin. That's fine and dandy, but we don't get our cash back. Maybe Mike will forward it to us. On to today's games.
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Because of the changes at QB for these teams, the only stats that apply in this game are those from the recent history. From the objective Power Ratings listing we can see that Minnesota has the 6th best rushing game over the last month, while Chicago is 31st defending the run. That's a statistical mismatch, and with the Vikes at home we think the Bears will have to adjust their defense to stop them. In other words, the Bears genuinely good pass D won't be so genuine this game, and Ponder has gotten better this year at exploiting defenses as well as stepping up in the pocket. What the Bears get they will get from McCown, and we don;t think it will be enough. Going lite on the home team. |
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The Jets CAN win a football game if they do things just right, but they haven't for awhile. New York has a good running game, and we suspect it will gain them yardage Sunday, but this appears to be a team that is grounded. If the Dolphins have to stop the running game we think they can. It's sorta the same with Miami, only we expect them to pass instead of run. It figures to be a low scorer, with the winner being the one who capitaizes on turnovers. Miami may be more likely to force those turnovers with a better pass rush, and there is also the possibilty of penalty flags raining down on the Jets. If the Fins do lose that turnover war the points - even with the short spread - may still come into play. Making a lite play on the road team. |
| Plays for Thursday nite |
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Now that Pittsburgh has righted it's ship this game figures to be another nail-biter. We don't expect either team to do much on the ground, so this is basically a passing dual between two good QBs against two pretty good pass defenses. The only thing that separates them is the Raven's pass rush. While both teams have trouble protecting their passer, it's Baltimore that brings in the league's no. 1 ranked pass rush. Pittsburgh's is ranked 23rd.
That's about all we have for this one, that and the fact that the Ravens haven't lost to the spread at home all year. And if we wanted to make ourselves feel good, we could say the system has done pretty well when betting on games involving either of these teams. Betting the minimum on what should be maximum entertainment. |
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| Plays for Thanksgiving |
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Our Official forecast calls this one for Green Bay, but that includes several games with Aaron Rodgers. No. That forecast doesn't apply. We're looking at the Recent History forecast, the one that reflects the team's performance without Aaron.
The key stat in that forecast is clearly the rushing yardage. It's hard to run against Detroit anyway, but without Rodgers to keep the run support back we expect it to be impossible. It's not a problem that Stafford will have. This could be the first time we've flat out bet against the Official forecast, but these are unusual circumstances. Making a lite play on the home favorite and playing it early before the point spread rises. |
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Good Luck Everyone!
