Games of WEEK 14

This is our only Best Bet of the week but those BB's haven't exactly thrilled us that much over the course of the season. We do like this bet, tho. Even if it turns into a weather game we've got the home team. Both teams have been slipping over the last month. For Chicago, it's because of losing Cutler, but what's the Cowboy's excuse? It could be that the Cows pass D was exposed. That's not a good thing in the NFL. If it does turn out to be a real game, even with the interim QB, we expect the Bears to win the passing battle. Romo is a good QB but he'll definitely have the tougher road against a legit pass defense. The last time we had confidence in the Bears, McCown threw an endzone INT against Detroit. It's hard to get that image out of our head but we'll bite the bullet and make a lite play on Chitown.

Bears -1 Bears 31 Cowboys 27 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Bears 45 Cowboys 28

The 3-point spread looks right. The Official forecast calls it a Push, while the alternate forecasts are split. Can the Saints stop Carolina's running game? Can the Pants stop the Saints passing game? Who knows? But ALL of our forecasts call it UNDER, and by a TD. That's not too convincing but it's the only game in town and it's an important one, so we'll risk a chip.

Panthers/Saints UNDER 47 Saints 22 Carolina 19 Computer Projection HIT: Saints 31 Panthers 13

These are basically the same two teams. They base their offense on the run, and mix in long pass plays to compliment the run, Very effective offensively, and both teams have murderous defenses. We're expecting a good, tough ballgame that may, indeed, end in a tie. Throughout the stats, Seattle is just the smallest amount better. Everywhere except penalties, which could be important. We have to buy the hook at 13/10 to get it to 3, so we'll downgrade this bet to a minimum play

Seahawks +3 (buy) Seahawks 20 49rs 20 Computer Projection HIT: 49rs 19 Seahawks 17

The system has been taking the Giants regularly lately - and with some success - so we are a little surprised it went with the Chargers, today. The game projection is simple, the system expects Rivers to outduel Eli Manning. It's not by a significant amount, but that and the Giants characteristic of not scoring as much as their yards indicate they should, and yielding more points than you'd think a pretty good defense should yield, leaves us with the cover prediction.We like the fact that the Chargers are at home, but we don't like the prospect of laying the hook, so we'll buy this one DOWN to 3, again at 13/10 odds, so again we'll reduce our risk factor to the minimum.

Chargers -3 (buy) Chargers 28 Giants 22 Computer Projection HIT: Chargers 37 Giants 14

Redskins +3 Chiefs 26 Redskins 24 Computer Projection MISS: Chiefs 45 Redskins 10

On a clear day the Chiefs would have trouble exploiting the Skins weak pass defense. This one could turn into a weather game with the icy conditions, but we have the spread, anyway. The Skins - with their no. 1 rushing attack going against a Chiefs defense that yields the 28th most yards/rush - should be able to stay with them. minimum play here.

Bucs -2 1/2 Bucs 23 Bills 19 Computer Projection HIT: Bucs 27 Bills 6

This should be a tough, close ball game, with both teams fighting to control the ball. It's a battle we expect Tampa to win at home, although the Total Offense numbers could be close. The Bills have slightly better numbers both offensively and defensively, but the schedule strength acts as an equalizer, tilting the Bucs way. This game could come down to a big kick return by the Bucs, where they rank 5th and the Bills rank 29th in coverage. That's not a lot to go on and these are two very erratic losing teams so we'll keep this one to a minimum.

The Colts have been on a serious slide over the last month, ranking 29th in our Power Ratings over that period. A lot of the problem is with a running game that is supposed to power the passing game, but has disappeared. Meanwhile, Cincy has sported the best defense in the league recently, and the best in the AFC for the season. The Colts can be a good team but on the road against the Bengals isn't a good place to patch things together. Going with a lite play that would be full were it not for the icy weather. Like the Washington game, it could turn nasty.

Bengals -6 1/2 Bengals 27 Colts 18 Computer Projection HIT: Bengals 42 Colts 28

As long as Green Bay is without Rodgers, we're going to bet against them. Even if our Official forecast points toward them, it's the Recent History forecast that applies. That one says it's going to be a close, close game, but we've got a few points and we have to believe Atlanta will be able to pass some, even in the snow. Going with a minimum play on a road team.

Falcons +3 Green Bay 25 Falcons 25 RECENT HISTORY Projection HIT: Packers 22 Falcons 21

Patriots -9 1/2 Patriots 35 Browns 24 Computer Projection MISS: Patriots 27 Browns 26

This spread, though it's still large, is inexplicably dropping, and we do like it when the system covers big spreads. A team better be prepared to attack the Patriots only weakness, namely their run D, if they want to be competitive with them in Foxboro. Cleveland has a good defense but it's only half a team, and it doesn't appear to have the running game to be effective. It should be a nice day up there. Going with the lite play and laying a hefty spread.

Jaguars +3 Texans 23 Jaguars 21 Computer Projection HIT: Jaguars 27 Texans 20

We haven't updated this week's stats online yet but we have looked at the info. The projected score listed below isn't very compelling. In fact, if we were to bet based on the official forecast we'd probably tease it one way or the other. We have taken a look at the Recent History forecast and that one is fully behind the Jaguars, as you might imagine. That forecast suggests basically even Total Offense numbers for both teams tonight, with the difference being the Jags have just been more efficient in turning those yards into points over the last month, when they went 3-1. We know any team can be a No-Show, Monday illustrated that, but we have to figure these two teams are more susceptible to that, so we won't get too excited about this game. Just betting the minimum.

Good Luck Everyone!

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