Games of WEEK 15

These teams are as equal as their records, and they are as different as they can be in their approach. Detroit relies on offense, Baltimore relies on defense. The Lions are so fast and delerious they'll make your head spin. The Ravems are so slow and deliberate they'll unspin it. The game should be entertaining. As for the pick itself, we like the fact that even though Detroit should realize their offense at home against a pretty solid D, it looks like they'll have to settle for a lower yards/completion rate. They're used to 12.4 yards/completion, the Ravens D is used to giving up 11.4. On the other side of the ball, it's the exact opposite, 10.3 and 12.2. That's pretty wild. Of course, Detroit still figures to pile up the yardage and win the Total Offense battle. There should be some great kick returns. The Ravens' Jacoby Jones is a great talent there. And we hate to rely on fumbles, but man, you have to look twice at Detroit's numbers. 30th in fumbles for the season, 32nd over the last four weeks, and that's when they were playing good! Now for the bad news: The Ravens are 1-5 on the road, including 1-5 ATS. That's a downer, and it keeps our play down to the minimum. Taking a rare road dog for a change.

Ravens +5 Lions 26 Ravens 22 Computer Projection HIT: Ravens 18 Lions 16

It's hard to bet against Cincy, especially since the Official forecast doesn't go past a tie, especially since the Recent History forecast points to the Bengals. The projection does call for 48 points, which was OVER by an appreciable amount against the early line, but isn't so appreciable, anymore, since it's been bet up a couple of points. What th'heck, it's a clear day, and the wind is still below grounding conditions. Going with the OVER, which is always a minimum play.

Bengals/Steelers OVER 43 Bengals 25 Steelers 25 Computer Projection HIT: Steelers 30 Bengals 20

Who's the Raiders starting QB, today? Some kid named McGloin. Since he's come in the Raiders have a balanced, if not spectacular, offense. The Raiders may be able to win the rushing war at home with the slipping Chiefs, but if they don't they may be able to, somewhat, exploit an exposed Chiefs secondary. Oakland has their own problems on defense but we don't like the Raiders coach Dennis Allen's chances of returning next year if they don't show up for this rivalry game.

Raiders +6 Chiefs 25 Raiders 21 Computer Projection MISS: Chiefs 56 Raiders 31

Panthers -10 Panthers 27 Jets 13 Computer Projection PUSH: Panthers 30 Jets 20

This one was not a Best Bet against the early line when the forecast came out, but it is now. We do like it when the system covers big spreads. The key to this game for the Pants is to stop the Jets, have a short field to work with, and eat the clock. Nobody can really run consistently on either of these teams but we expect field position to lead to points for Carolina, we can't see where the Jets points are coming from. Breaking the pattern here with a lite play in good weather on the home favorite.

Ordinarily, we'd expect the Skins to run and the Birds to pass, just like the forecast says, but with Cousins at QB for the Skins we expect a more pro-style offense. Not having a runner at QB changes a lot of things for Washington, and we just don't think Cousins will fare any better. It is a pretty big unknown, and he does have a rather weak defense to work against, but the Skins passing attack is based on the opponent keying on the run. In other words, the Falcons figure to possess the more sophisticated pass attack. Betting the minimum on the home favorite.

Falcons -6 Falcons 32 Redskins 24 Computer Projection MISS: Falcons 27 Redskins 26

Bucs +5 49rs 20 Bucs 17 Computer Projection MISS: 49ers 33 Bucs 14

The Bucs aren't any stranger to tough opponents, having faced the strongest schedule in the league. We don't see any real difference in what both of these teams are trying to do. Frisco does it better, but with the home field advantage and the points we have to think this is a viable, if not solid, bet. If we look at the Recent History forecast the Bucs could win straight up. It doesn't hurt that the 49rs have to travel to play at 10am Frisco time. Betting the minimum and hoping Frisco doesn't wake up too soon.

Colts -5 Colts 27 Texans 21 Computer Projection HIT: Colts 25 Texans 3

This pick would be a pass, normally, because we don't like it when the team we're betting against is projected to win the Total Offense battle. But we have to wonder what kind of deals are in place vetweem Houston and Johnny Football. Even if the Houston players want to take it to the Colts, their coaching staff can do some pretty subtle things to assure they get that top draft pick. Otherwise, it's just a simple case of the Colts taking advantage of their scoring opportunitys. It's something the Texans haven't done all year. Just betting the minimum and hoping the Texans don't have their heart in the game.

Jaguars +3 Bills 22 Jags 21 Computer Projection MISS: Bills 27 Jaguars 20

This game looks so much like last week's Jags/Texans match that it's ridiculous. Ordinarily, the gaudy rushing numbers the Bills have would give us pause, but executing a run game on the road is tough, and doing so against a Jags D that has been no. 1 against the rush over the last month should prove nearly impossible. It's going to rain but it doesn't look like these teams will be grounded. We're still a little nervous betting teams that are out of the hunt so we'll go minimum on this play.

Dolphins PICK Dolphins 28 Patriots 25 Computer Projection HIT: Dolphins 24 Patriots 20

These two teams are projected to generate the same amount of FDs and Total Offense, with perhaps only the HFA tilting GRIDLINE the Dolphins way. When we look at the Recent History numbers we see that the Fins are doing just about everything right, even in penalties. More and more the Pats are relying on Brady and the passing game, while pass D has always been Miami's forte. We liked this play a lot better when it opened with the Pats as a 2 1/2 point favorite. That one was a computer generated Best Bet that we were figuring to buy up to 3. We were pretty sure about that one. As it stands, we aren't protected against another incredible finish like the one last week. One chip minimum on a PICK it.

Vikings +6 1/2 Vikings 29 Eagles 28 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Vikes 48 Eagles 30

We're really trusting the system with this one. Usually, after checking the forecast we'll try to justify what it said by singling out a stat or two. We don't see it here. We even checked the ATS records and our system records with these teams. Nothing. The answer is buried deep within the GRIDLINE algorithm. One thing's for sure, all of our forecasts point to the Vikes. Maybe our computer just likes their uniform. This is more of an expirement than anything else. It doesn't help that Peterson and Gerhart are hobbled, but the O-line is still there. Betting the minimum on this home dog.

Broncos -10 Broncos 40 Chargers 26 Computer Projection MISS: Chargers 27 Broncs 20

We're in a bit of a quandary, tonight. We haven't posted the forecasts yet, but our Official forecast kinda shows the Broncs running away with this one, while the Recent History forecast shows the Chargers giving them some real trouble. We think the difference in this one is that Denver wants to score everytime they get their hands on the ball, and the Chargers have to score everytime they get the ball. The Chargers wasted a lot of time wasting time the last time these two met in San Diego and before you could blink the Broncos stretched the lead. Will McCoy get it right this time? Even if they do we'll take Manning over Rivers. GRIDLINE has been winning about as much as anyone can win lately, but we'd skip this one if we weren't so hardheaded about PrimeTime plays. We're going to buy it down to 10 at 12/10 odds and hope Manning will come through. A minimum play on the home favorite.

Good Luck Everyone!

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