GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2013 Season

Games of WEEK 16
content below posted 14:30MON23DEC13 cst
Plays for MNF
This game defies any statistical analysis. Both teams have visions of Sugar Plums dancing in their heads. At home, we expect the 49rs to go about their business somewhat, and we expect Atlanta to offer little resistance with their near-bottom dwelling defense. We just hope the Birds participate in the scoring and keep their head in the game long enough to see Frisco's prevent defense. We'll take Atlanta and add 6 points to the official line of 14, and we'll deduct 6 from the Total of 46 combined points.

It's the last Monday niter. Despite our betting difficulties at times on MNF, we hate to see it go. And while we don't like playing Teasers we enjoy the jokes at the club and the general weirdness on TV, and we wonder why MNF is left out of the flex scheduling scheme. There were a handful of games yesterday with playoff implications for both teams. It would be great if one was scheduled for tonight.

TEASER:
Falcons +20 &
Falcons/49rs
OVER 40
49rs 28 Falcons 18
Computer Projection
HIT: 49rs 34 Falcons 24
content below posted 18:50SUN22DEC13 cst
Plays for SNF
This is such a strange game. Philly's showdown next week against the Cows is everything. To the Eags, tonite's game means nothing. They'll pull up the team. Sometimes, at home, they'll try to make things look good, but no, eventually it will turn into a preseason game. We think the Bears want the game but we can't say they'll play well. Absolute minimum here.
Bears +3
N/A
Computer Projection
MISS: Eagles 54 Bears 11
content below posted 13:40SUN22DEC13 cst
Plays for Sunday Afternoon
The Raiders have been giving up a lot of points, lately. More than anyone else over the last month. That doesn't figure to change in Charger-land. The Chargers can field a pretty relentless passing attack against a weak Oakland secondary. Oakland can score some points of their own but it doesn't look like they can keep up, especially against a Charger team that leads the lead in possession time. Let's make this a lite play on a big favorite at home.
Chargers -10
Chargers 32 Raiders 21
Computer Projection
HIT: Chargers 26 Raiders 13
A funny thing thing happened on our way to bet the New England Patriots: The line flipped from Baltimore being favored to the Pats being favored. This game is starting to shape up like last year's AFC championship, with the Ravens playing really good defense just when they need to. The Pats can, and will, score, but we have to think the Ravens will stay close and they can manage to get that clunky offense to slowly move down the field at times.
Ravens +1
Ravens 23 Patroits 22
Computer Projection
MISS: Patriots 41 Ravens 7

We are keeping with our theme of taking home teams that are supported by the Recent History forecast. We kind of chugheed on the Cards. That one looked like we would be trying to hook the Hawks with the points. Although it is a lot of points, we'd rather go with teams that we feel have a good chance at winning. Typically, the points only come into play about 20% of the time. We'll be back well before the opening touchback with tonite's game.

content below posted 00:45SUN22DEC13 cst
Plays for Sunday

That MNF play may have been among our best plays of the year. It wasn't a big play, but it was good analysis. Sometimes our reasoning gets lost in the math, and many times the game turns out to be completely different from what we imagined, but this game was dead on. We said that Detroit would have trouble stretching the field, and they did, even though they tried repeatedly. No, no one could have predicted that the best receiver in the game would drop 2 big passes, but it is interesting that our projection could have been somewhat compromised otherwise. It's almost as if the drops had to happen.

Not every game is so cooperative. We don't expect them to be. Some are uncappable. A coach or an official or a kicker or the weather will trash any analysis. We expect those games to even out in the long run. What we try to do is point out an advantage that a team has going in. A pro football game features many adjustments and strategies, but we expect a small part of the game to go according to form. We hope to identify that form, and we hope when it goes that way it gives us a small edge. Enough to win.

It's no secret to us that a lot of our visitors shake their heads when they read some of our capsules. Talking about yards/completion for this offense and that defense can seem a bit far fetched. But that's what we saw in the Lions/Ravens game, and in this case, that's what happened. We'll continue to post some pretty wild stuff but be assured that these statements are rooted in math. It's what we do, and you can't get it anywhere else.

The Bills are a running team with a good pass D. The Dolphins are much more balanced, but we expect their passing game to suffer against the Bills. In effect, these may look like the same teams out there. The Fins give up fewer points than the Bills, but in Buffalo the projection calls for modest scoring on both ends. It doesn't help that it'll rain, although these teams will be far from grounded. We have to buy this one up from 2 1/2 at 13/10 so well make a minimum play on the home dogs.
Bills +3 (buy)
Bills 22 Dolphins 22
Computer Projection
HIT: Bills 19 Dolphins 0
Rams -4
Rams 24 Bucs 19
Computer Projection
HIT: Rams 23 Bucs 13
 It looks like the Rams will have their offense, such as it is, at home. The Bucs are going up against one of the tougher run D's in the league. If the Rams play it right, whatever the Bucs get, they'll get through the air. That can't be a comforting thought for the run-happy Bucs.
Skins +3
Skins 29 Cowboys 28
Computer Generated BEST BET
HIT: Cowboys 24 Redskins 23
 We were dead wrong about the Skins last week against Atlanta. It turns out they can exploit a poor pass D with Cousins, and Dallas' pass D is as bad as it gets. Washington's run D isn't too bad lately, either, and that's what Dallas does best. We're kinda gambling that the Skins don't have designs on the first draft pick, but Houston has something to say about that.
The Vikes have been tearing up opponents with that offense - flat out out-offensing them - but we don't see it continuing in Cincy, which sports one of the better defenses in the league, especially at home. For the Bengals, we don't see much resistance coming from the Vikings pass D. We're projecting a huge advantage in Total Offense for the Bengals, particularly in the passing game. The only thing we don't like about this play is that we have to lay more than a TD to the Vikes. That's a lot of points, so we'll make the minimum play.
Bengals -8
Bengals 32 Vikings 21
Computer Generated BEST BET
HIT: Bengals 42 Vikings 14

All minimum plays, so far this week, and we skipped a bumch of plays. The Saints would be expected to ring up the passing yards normally, but a check of the Recent History forecast shows the Saints are anything but normal on the road. That Cleveland game is being bet down so quickly that we can't get a favorable point spread on the road with a losing team. At 7 points, the K.C. game looks just right. With the Titans and the Jags we're getting conflicting data from their recent performances. As for the Texans against Denver, man, it's there for the taking if Houston wants it, but with the top pick in the draft riding on it we have to wonder if they want it. We'll be back at halftime of the early games with our afternoon picks.



Good Luck Everyone!



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