| Plays for Sunday |
Another week, another Push. This time the Saints had the honor. That last TD salvaged it as it was part consolation/part determination. These games are heart-stopping. We take solace in the fact that late bettors had 9 or more points. Later, at night, the Colts looked OK when they forced New England to punt with a 29-22 lead near the end of the 3rd quarter, but they punted it right back, twice. A team can't do that on the road, the wheels will fall off, and they did. On to todays action.
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This should be a great game in Charlotte as two very good and very similar teams go at it. They both run more than half the time, and they both play excellent defense. The 49rs are little better against the run, the Pants a little better against the pass. The big difference is in the passing game, with Carolina using it more conventionally, to pick up first downs, and to keep drives going. The 49rs use the pass to eat up huge chunks of yardage when the defense comes up. We don't think that Panther defense will come up. In fact, while the 49rs are used to averaging a whopping 12.5 yards/completion, the Pants D only allows 9. Carolina, on the other hand, gains a little less than 11 yards, more in line with the league average, while Frisco's D gives up the same. In other words, we think the 49rs passing game will be more disturbed than the Panthers. Thats it. The by-product of Carolina's pass D should equate to m0ore punts by Frisco and an edge in possession time for the Pants. It doesn't hurt that Carolina is at home, especially against the more playoff-savvy Niners. Make it a lite play on the home team. |
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It doesn't appear that the wind will be too much of a problem for these teams. We're going to have to trust the weather people on this one. Dangerous. Otherwise we should expect Manning and his top passing offense to have his way against the 29th ranked pass D. That's a statistical mismatch and we're bound to go with it. We have been surprised by things that the Chargers do. In the last meeting between these two the Chargers pulled off some incredible plays to keep drives going and keep Manning off the field. Even when Peyton finally got on he couldn't complete a pass. The Chargers will try that ball control thing, again. It worked against Cincy, but, hopefully, it will be a case of going to the well once too often. Definitely not one of our more confident plays. |
| Plays for Saturday |
Last Sunday we lost the Bengals play. We'd love to tell you why, specifically, but we can't. The Bengals just played poorly in the 2nd half. It was uncharacteristic of that club and it cost us some cash. We'll blame it on the coach like we always do and move on, but not before we say "Congrats Chargers", and congrats, too, to those of you that had San Diego.
Also last Sunday, we pushed the Packers game. That one went pretty much the way we had figured, but we can't get the image of that Green Bay defensive back, with his hands on the ball in the last minute, out of our head. Something tells us that defender can't get it out of his head, either. Anyway, congrats to the 49rs, and congrats to those Frisco early bettors that got in before the spread went to 3.
| Last week we stopped just short of labeling the Packers/49rs game a 'weather' game. We won't stop short in the the Seahawks/Saints game. It's a weather game. The winds are projected to be 25-35 mph, with gusts past 40. Many people assume a windy game is advantangeous to a running team moreso than a passing team. GRIDLINE doesn't make that distinction. Both defenses stack the line and play a single safety. It doesn't matter how well you can run. You can't do anything at all if you can't pass. We aren't particularly confident in a weather game pick. Some players turn out to be mudders. The ball bounces funny. But as we've said many times in the past, when the weather dominates, take the points. That's what we always do in a weather game, even if it's the minimum we bet. |
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Sometimes it seems like someone has to get lucky and become the 'Team of Destiny' to make it to the Super Bowl. The Titans did it with their 'lateral' at the turn of the century. The Pats did it with their Tuck Rule and the Ravens did it when Tony Siragusa flattened Rich Gannon like a hamster. Last year, the Ravens again were fortunate enough to hit a bomb against Denver's Prevent Defense. Flash forward to current times where the Colts last week fumbled on the goal line and the ball popped right up to their QB in the midst of a huge comeback against the Chiefs. What was that QB's name again? Oh, yeah, Luck. 'Team of Destiny' or not, we like the way the Colts move the ball. It'll have to be a lot sooner than later against the Pats, but we see a decent enough running game and a pretty good passing game from the Colts. In fact, the Colts look a lot like the Pats, with New England just doing a little better in each category. Hopefully, it doesn't add up to 7 points. In the 'encouraging' department, we do project an edge in penalties for the Colts. The point spread is appealing but we do not like it when we expect to hook a team with the points, and we can't really see the Colts outright winning in New England. We're putting down the minimum again and hoping for the best. |
That's it for Saturday. Sorry about the small plays but we haven't seen anything that get's us excited so far in this postseason. Maybe Sunday will be different. We'll be back overnite with those picks. Until then ...
Good Luck Everyone!
