GAMES OF WEEK 05

GRIDLINE is half-human, half-machine, but the human component is pretty much telling the machine, "You're fuckin' crazy!" There ain't no way the Skins should even be on the same field with the Hawks. The computer is acting like this is going to be some kind of struggle for possession of the ball. Geesh, the last time we saw an upset like this was when GRIDLINE lost with the 49ers at home to the Bears a couple of weeks back. Screw the football gods, we don't have to take the Skins. We're going to fudge a little and take a 6-point teaser the other way. We'll subtract 6 from the actual spread of 7, and subtrract 6 from the Total of 45 1/2, and bet the resulting Parlay. Now we're technically in agreement with the system. We have to lay 11 and hit both sides to win 10, but we don't have to take the Skins and 7. This can't be good, the linemakers are traditionally off by over 10 points on both lines and totals. Don't try this at home.

TEASER: Hawks -1 & Hawks/Skins OVER 39 1/2 Seahawk 28 Redskins 24 Computer Projection HIT: Seahawks 27 Skins 17

If the Pats can shut down Cincy's run game, they'll win. We don't think they can. It's not a great run game, but it gets the job done, and they run it a lot - more than half the time. The Pats throw the ball with a short passing game that substitutes for the run. We'd like to think that it's more reliable to plod downfield than it is to hop. We liked this spread a lot better when it was nearly PICK earlier in the week, now the steam has taken over. At a full 3 points, it's just the minimum on the road favorite.

Bengals -3 Bengals 24 Patriots 18 Computer Projection MISS: Pats 43 Bengals 17

It doesn't matter who the opponent is, you have to be surprised at the Ravens getting points, even on the road. It's still early in our data collection but Baltimore sits atop our objective Power Ratings. They have also played a much tougher schedule than the Colts. Indy has been squeezing the air out of the ball but we would be surprised to see them do that against the Ravens. It's worth the minimum play, even if we do have to lay 12/10 odds.

Ravens +3 1/2 Ravens 26 Colts 24 Computer Projection MISS: Colts 20 Ravens 13

We have often said we like it when the computer projection covers large spreads. This one not only covers it, it calls it a Best Bet. The system basically counted the First Downs and it turned out to be a landslide. A lot can be attributed to the Bucs being blown out in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, but the Saints were blown out in Dallas last week, so those wild numbers should nullify each other somewhat. Too many points to risk a lot.

Saints -10 1/2 Saints 43 Bucs 20 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Saints 37 Bucs 31

Again, both teams have routs to their credit so we expect the numbers to even out. The Birds can score quickly when they score, but that doesn't help them with Time of Possession. The Giants rank 9th in that category against tough competition. Also, the Giants lead the league in collecting INTs, whereas Ryan is near the bottom in throwing them. Weather is always a consideration up there because it seems to affect Eli more than his opponents, but it looks fine today.

Giants -4 Giants 32 Falcons 25 Computer Projection HIT: Giants 30 Birds 20

Our first bet over the minimum this season goes to the home standing San Diego Chargers. The Jets can run but the Chargers pass, and pass. And the Chargers don't throw those nasty INTs (at least so far). The best unit on the field may be the Jets run defense, but it's wasted against the Chargers. They just don't run. Another thing the Chargers don't do is yield points. They're 4th in points allowed, while the Jets are 24th in scoring. Conversely, it's 7th in scoring for the Chargers against an average Jets scoring D. Going with a lite, two-chip play on the homies.

Chargers -6 1/2 Chargers 29 Jets 14 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Bolts 31 Jets 0

Vikings +9 Packers 24 Vikings 22 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Pack 42 Vikes 10

The Vikes look a lot like the last two teams that won in prime time, having the run advantage and a slightly better defense, but this time the game is in Packer-land. That's no small detail. The Vikes are without Peterson, but they are still built to run. and now Bridgewater is in the mix. That kid has been fearless in the little we have seen of him. If that continues he'll make it in this league. We don't know if it'll get them past the Packers, tho. The key is time of possession. So far this year the Pack is near the bottom in Possession Time. If the Vikes can keep them there and the fumbles even out the game will be close. It's going to be a little wet in Green Bay tonite but it shouldn't be that devatasting or advantageous to either team. Both teams will just have to concentrate on hanging onto the ball. The system is a little shaky because of several blowouts. It doesn't leave us a reliable set of data, so we upped the Best Bet level from 4 to 6 this week. This one, despite the wild numbers, still qualifies. That doesn't mean we have to bet more than the minimum.

Good Luck Everyone!

Last Week's Games