GAMES OF WEEK 06

Rams +3 1/2 Rams 24 49ers 24 Computer Projection MISS: 49ers 31 Rams 17

This ain't very smart. Taking the 1-4 Rams against a 49er team that's fighting for HFA in the playoffs? What can we say? We'd like to say we're trusting in the system, but it looks more like we're sacrificing one to the football gods. The 49ers are going to run, the Rams are going to pass. The GRIDLINE computer sees success for both teams. Fisher has been known to devise ways to take away a team's strength. Even if the Rams do stop Frisco's run game, however, it'll probably leave gaping holes in the secondary. Maybe Kaepernick will regress to the state of the Chicago game. Ram's new QB Austin Davis is being compared to Kurt Warner, at least locally. He'll have to channel Kurt for the Rams to have any chance. We've looked at this game seven ways from Sunday and it always looks like a loser. It sure is an odd looking point spread. It would be nice if the game turned out to be odd, as well. Hail to the hook and the backdoor cover. Betting the minimum, again.

Eagles -1 1/2 Eagles 29 Giants 25 Computer Projection HIT: Eags 27 Giants 0

This line has plummeted ever since it came out, from 3 1/2 early on to 1 1/2 now. Some bettors will probably get it at 1 but we can't with our Outs. It looks like Vegas just made a mistake and they've been trying to correct it all week. There are some injuries to the Eags but it's not that dramatic. Both offenses are expected to do well tonite. About equal according to our projection. The main separator stat-wise is points/yard. A high number there is an indicator that the team performs well near the goal line - what the TV announcers call good red zone play. In this case, however, the high number appears to come from punt returns. That'll pump up that stat, and you can't get ask for more in a return man than having Darren Sproles back there. The system is predicting 2 punt returns for 37 yards for the Eags, well above the league average of 9 yards/return. It's iffy but that's what we'll be looking for, a Sproles punt return. Can you blame us for just betting the minimum?

We are expecting a tense, low scoring game with both teams trying to execute a short passing attack, with limited success. What should separate the Bills from the Pats is some success on the ground. Ordinarily, we might expect the Pats to do some damage with their precision passing game, but the Bills may pressure Brady with the 4th best sacking team going against average, at best, protection. It's worth a lite play in Buffalo.

Bills +2 Bills 25 Patriots 18 Computer Generated BET BET MISS: Patriots 37 Bills 22

This should be a similar game as mentoned above with a lot more offense from the Bengals. We may see the Bengals rip off a kick return as well. We'll need it, we're laying a lot of wood this time. A minimum play on the home boys.

Bengals -7 Bengals 28 Panthers 19 Computer Projection MISS: Bengals 37 Pants 37

Browns -1 Browns 29 Steelers 20 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Browns 31 Pitt 10

The GRIDLINE computer really went out on a limb with this one, picking the Browns to wallop a team they rarely beat. Even weirder is the projection that has both teams racking up identical total offense. The system seems to be saying that the Browns will make much better use of their yardage and that they'll benefit from turnovers. That sounds a little shaky, and it IS the Browns, so we'll keep this one down to a minimum.

Dolphins +3 Dolphins 27 Packers 24 Computer Generated BEST BET PUSH: Pack 27 Fins 24

Can Miami put up the rushing numbers against the Pack this week? That's really the only question in this game. We naturally doubted it because a lot of the rushing yardage they've put up came against Oakland in week 04 in London. That's not a real game. It's more like an exhibition. But the Fins have put up impressive rushing numbers in other games, even in their loss to K.C. The projected score even held up in our experimental, NO-SHOW forecast, where we disregard all routs. Call us crazy, but we think the Fins will have a big edge on the ground. The kind of edge that makes Green Bay cheat on defense. At home, we expect the Fins to take advantage of that much like they did against New England in the opener. Again, betting the home team, but just the minimum because we historically have had trouble with Green Bay.

This game features the top team in our objective Power Ratings versus the worst team. Needless to say it defies statistical analysis. If we needed hard numbers to justify the bet we could say that the Chargers give up the fewest points in the league, while the Raiders score the least. In any event, even at Oakland we think the gap between the best and the worst is greater than 7 points. Making a lite play on the road favorite.

Chargers -7 Chargers 25 Raiders 12 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Chargers 31 Raiders 28

TEASER: Colts +3 1/2 & Colts/Texans OVER 40 1/2 Texans 23 Colts 22 Computer Projection HIT: Colts 33 Texans 28

Indy is coming off a superimpressive win against the Ravens, and while the Texans have been impressive as well, they appear to be doing it with mirrors, or in this case, turnovers. If the turnovers even out we would expect the Colts to win easily. As for the Total, we could go either way but we might be influenced by our first UNDER of the season a couple of weeks ago. In that one, it was 17-0 midway in the 3rd when the officials basically awarded a TD on a blown call. That opened the floodgates. If the officials are going to award points, we want to be on the right side of the Total, the OVER. So again we're going to subtract 6 from both the line and the Total, which were 2 1/2 and 46 1/2, leaving us with what you see. Again, we have to hit both bets - like a regular parlay - to win, but it only pays like hitting a flat bet. Oh well, we're stuck with betting these PrimeTime games because we're half-human.

Good Luck Everyone!

Last Week's Games