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| Steelers -3 |
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| Steelers 24 Texans 21 Computer Projection |
| Plays for MNF |
| The point spread dropped to 3 so it left the computer system with no preference arrow. Basically, the system is telling us we're on our own. It did say that Pitt figures to have a lot more offense. There have been occasions where GRIDLINE says, "We don't know where their points are going to come from." In Houston's case, we do know. They'll come from INT and fumble returns. That's how they play. In Pittsburgh, it's just a matter of taking reasonably good care of the football. Isn't that the first rule, anyway? We'll gamble that the Steelers do take care of the ball. Another lousy chip on the home team. |
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| Plays for SNF |
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We went back and forth on this one. It IS the only game in town, and it figures to be a good game between two good teams, so we just had to have a side. In looking at the OFFICIAL and RECENT forecast numbers, we noticed Frisco was only slightly behind in Total Offense, and they were actually ahead in the NO-SHOW forecast. Our objective Power Ratings show the 49ers as the slightly better team. The obvious stats are there - Denver's passing and Frisco's running - but these two defenses are the story, with each one capable of shutting the other down.
It should make for a tense game. We actually think Frisco has a chance to win this thing. It may be too much to ask the 49ers to knock off Peyton and that gang in Denver, but we do have a full TD. It's worth a chip to watch the game. The odds are such that we lay 12/10. |
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| Plays for Sunday late |
| This one looks pretty good but it's possible the Chiefs can have some success running the ball. Still, the Chargers figure to maintain possession with that super-efficient passing game, and the Chiefs don't like losing that possession war. KC has played well over the last month so we'll temper our play a little. Betting lite on the home team. |
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The Cows have a strong passing game which looks even stronger now that they have a strong running game. Eli can be effective in fair weather, but thia week he's facing the 8th ranked pass D. Going lite again on the Boys. |
| Plays for Sunday early |
| It isn't quite a Bet Bet but a 3-point spread differential is pretty close. And while our RECENT forecast called it a push, our NO-SHOW forecast supports the play. The key stat appears to be FDs, where both teams put up a lot of them, but the Bears do much better at preventing them. It should lead to an edge in Possession Time for the Bears. It should be good for a lite play. |
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The Bengals are a good team, and we expect them to post decent numbers when they have the ball. We're making our first full play of the year on the Colts because they figure to be unstoppable in Indianapolis. Unstoppable. The Colts rank 5th leaguewide in fewest punts, while the Bengals rank 25th in forcing them, and 29th over the last month. In our objective Power Ratings, the Colts have maintained their 2nd overall position, while the Bengals rank 9th this season, and 20th if you just consider the last month. In other words, Indy can't be a good place to play if you're slipping. Going 3 chips on the home team at 12/10 odds. |
| The system is giving us a huge spread differential of 10 points but it is really hard to explain. We do expect the Saints to gain yardage even against the Lions top ranked defense, but the computer isn't awarding points for it. It's got something to do with turnovers. In addition to the relatively complex GRIDLINE algorythm, the system includes a simple points/turnover comparison as a steadying influence. It is weighted fairly lightly, but in this case, the extreme numbers appear to have affected the projected score dramatically. We have decided to go with it. The Saints do have road woes and they do turn the ball over inordinately. Turnovers are hard to predict but with just a 2 point spread the game is worth the gamble. A lite play on the Lions. |
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We're still reeling from last week's MISS where we fell victim to the Jags backdoor cover. That was Tennessee, this is Cleveland. The Browns 4th ranked offense against the Jags 28th ranked D, combined with the Jags problems protecting the passer (they're last) makes this an appealing play. The Hoyer kid is a pretty cool customer and that contained passing attack does keep drives alive. Another lite play, this time on the road favorite. |
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We are not supposed to hold grudges here at GRIDLINE but we are half-human. We can't help but be angry at Jeff Fisher for that huge blunder before halftime against the 49ers, and for more unimaginative play calling in the 2nd half. We are tempted to simply fade the GRIDLINE system whenever it points at the Rams. But ALL coaches are idiots, although some are idiot savants. We are going to try to get the Rams in before Fisher does too much damage, and Jeff does gameplan well. Plus, the Hawks have to travel across time zones to play early, so maybe we can pounce before they wake up. |
| Not only is this a Best Bet, but it's the biggest advantage in rushing yardage we see this week. Almost doubled. While the Ravens rank 8th in rushing yardage, the Birds rank 28th in defense in the same category. The RECENT and NO-SHOW forecasts support this play as well. The Birds do figure to exploit the Ravens pass D, and we do want to be a little careful of the point spread, so we'll keep it to a lite pay. |
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| Plays for Thursday nite |
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Our official forecast of a 2 TD win for the Pats is supported by the recent history forecast for this one, but our NO-SHOW forecast, where we disregard the routs of and by these teams, says the Jets can make it a close game. Plus, this looks like it could turn into a weather game. When the weather dominates, either team has an equal chance to win. We'd love to pass on this one but it's the only game in town. GRIDLINE is like a lot of other bettors, if there's a game on we've got action. We can go with the UNDER and still be technically in agreement with the system so we'll bet a lousy chip there. |
Good Luck Everyone!
