GAMES OF WEEK 08

Redskins +10 Cowboys 30 Redskins 22 Computer Projection HIT: Skins 20 Cows 17

As is the case a lot with these prime time plays, we feel the system is giving us a loser. Again, it's one we'd skip on day when there were multiple options. As we always say, tho, it's the only game in town. Looking at the numbers, it appears to be a Dallas party. That's a big offense going against an average at best defense. And the Cows might not have the best defense in the league but surely it can handle the scoring challenged Skins. There is a little advantage in the rushing numbers if the Skins can stay with the run, but really, this is about hoping for a magical performance from the newcomer QB McCoy. We do like Colt and yes, he should be the Skins starter, but trying to keep up with the Cowboys may be too much to ask. Just the minimum here in a hopeless situation.

What can we say? We don't like the numbers the sytem is giving us. We think the Pack can pass, but the Saints can run and pass at home. We'll play a Teaser, which means we can subtract 6 from the now 2 1/2 point spread and we'll subtract 6 from the 55 1/2 Total. Technically, we're in agreement with the system. We'll try anything. We have to hit both props to win like a flat spread bet, but at least we have action.

6 pt Teaser: Packers +8 1/2 & Pack/Saints OVER 49 1/2 Packer 26 Saints 24 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Saints 44 Pack 23

Browns -7 Browns 26 Raiders 14 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Browns 23 Raiders 13

The Browns should have dominance on the ground. We may have said that last week but this time we really mean it. We have Oakland rated as the worst team in the league in our objective Power Ratings, even though they have managed to post a decent record ATS. They will fight. Still, with Cleveland running the ball half the time we expect them to pound them into submission eventually. A lite play on the road favorites. Scary.

Colts -4 Colts 29 Steelers 22 Computer Projection MISS: Pitt 51 Colts 34

The Colts may be the best team in the league. That doesn't mean they'll knock the Steelers around in Pittsburgh - the Steelers might knock anybody off in Pittsburgh - but it does mean we can expect them to play well. The Colts have the top passing game in the league, but they're not really a passing team. Their run/pass ratio is right at the league norm. They use the run just to keep defenses honest. Even if the Pitt run D limits the Colts rushing yardage, the Colts will get their points. While we generally expect an average Pitt offense to score a few more points at home against most teams, the Colts also have the top defense. We feel the Steelers will score their points, as well, but the spread differential should cover the point spread. We are a little worried that Pittsburgh will find a way to take advantage of the rushing efficiency stat, where the Steelers offense is ranked 7th and the Colts D is ranked 25th in yards/attempt. That, and the fact that the spread has jumped a little will keep this one down to a lite bet.

1st Half: Panthers +3 Panthers 29 Seahawks 26 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Pants 6 Hawks 3 (1H)

It used to be a team might be a little woozy from the long plane ride and maybe a little dizzy playing at 10:00am their time, and that might cause a little dropsies on the playing field. Back in the 20th century, it may or may not cost you a FG if you lay the ball down. Nowadays, a turnover means a solid 7 points. Two years ago, the NFL commissioner said he'd do something about scheduling west coast teams early. We're still waiting. In the meantime, the oddmakers have attempted to adjust with shorter point spreads, but we still don't think it's enough. This one is a Best Bet but with the Hawks predicted to win the rushing and Total Offense battles we don't have much confidence in it. Just the one chip on an EVEN halftime play. We'll try to get them before they wake up.

Cincy has been pushed around lately as they've fallen to one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, while the Ravens maintain their status as one of the top ten running teams. Same thing with FDs, a complete mismatch. This would be a big bet if it weren't for a few things. The NO-SHOW forecast has the Bengals winning this game. There's something about the Ravens padding their stats against the Falcons and the Bucs while Cincy gets knocked around by the Pats and Indy. Plus, the Bengals knocked off Baltimore in the opener, they have a history of knocking off Baltimore, and this one's in Cincy. We'll keep it small since what was a Best Bet got lost in a 3 point swing from the early line, but Baltimore sure looks like the better team.

Ravens -2 Ravens 24 Bengals 21 Computer Projection MISS: Bengals 27 Ravens 24

The Rams aren't going to be able to stop the Chiefs run game. In Kansas City, we might see a modern day record for rushing attempts. And we may see a Ram secondary that is stretched a little to thin. The wind may kick up a little as well, but not enough to ground the teams. In fact, the shorter routes could be unaffected, playing right into KC's hands. Those Rams are a tricky bunch - this isn't Fisher's first rodeo - but the Chiefs shouldn't have too much trouble if they stay alert. A full play on the home boys.

Chiefs -7 Chiefs 33 Rams 18 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Chiefs 34 Rams 7

To be honest, we don't know where either one of these teams points are going to come from. Buffalo is good against the run and all the Jets can do is run. Buffalo can't run but they have a decent passing game, but you really need to exploit that Jet pass D to score, and we don't know if 'decent' will cut it. It'll probably be a game of turnovers and big plays, but it doesn't look like either team can win by more than 3 points. We're committed to these Best Bets but this one is pushing it. Just a chip, here.

Bills +3 Bills 21 Jets 20 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Bills 43 Jets 23

Vikes +3 Vikings 24 Bucs 22 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Vikes 19 Bucs 13

Both of these teams should be able to put up average numbers by default. Those defenses are all over the place. The one good unit on the field is the Viking's rushing crew. Those cats are near the top of the league. Otherwise, it's a little more passing by the Vikes, a little more possession time, a couple more points. There will be variations, but the 3 point spread is a lot in this game. Call it a lite play on the visitors at 12/10 odds.

Broncos -9 Broncos 29 Chargers 20 Computer Projection HIT: Broncs 35 Bolts 21

Our Official forecast calls this a push at 9 points. It's our RECENT HISTORY forecast that calls it Denver's way. We do pay attention to a team's recent performance. In this case, the Broncs are moving up in our objective Power Ratings, and the Chargers are moving down. Oddly enough, the passing yardage tonite might even out. That sounds pretty weird when you're talking about a Manning game. The rushing yardage, however, should go Denver's way. Neither of these teams scare anybody with their rushing attacks, but the Chargers haven't got a rushing defense. At home, we expect the Broncos to exploit that. We don't like giving a good team a lot of points so we'll keep our risk value down.

Good Luck Everyone!

Last Week's Games