GAMES OF WEEK 09

Again, we would pass on this baby if it wasn't the only game in town. And again, it looks like the GRIDLINE computer is pointing to the wrong team. The one thing - maybe the only thing - that stands out in favor of the Giants, aside from the HFA, is the Colts defense. It puts up decent numbers for a whole game, but the Colts D doesn't generally play a whole game. The Colts have the best Time of Possession in the league. With the Colts giving up a little more than the average amount of points, it might mean that these guys aren't that great on D. Truly, the key for the Giants is to hold onto the ball. Win the possession battle and the Giants just might beat the Colts. The Giants have shown that they can run off time when they aren't turning the ball over. We need them to protect the ball and chalk up FDs. C'mon Eli, get 'em moving side-to-side. There's not much to go on for this game. The good news is that GRIDLINE is now betting with their money. It took a little while but after periods of winning and periods of losing, the last two weeks have put us over the top. Let's keep it going. A minimum play on the home boys.

Giants +3 Colts 28 Giants 26 Computer Projection MISS: Colts 40 Giants 24

This one isn't a mandate by any means. The GRIDLINE computer has the Steelers as a 1 point victor in two of our three forecasts. We projected the Ravens with the slightly better run game, the Steelers with the slightly better pass game, but in all our forecasts we have the Steelers with more FDs, more Total Yardage, and more points. We watched the Ravens push the Steelers around in Baltimore earlier this season - lost some cash on it - but we don't expect that to happen in Pittsburgh. In our Power Ratings we have the Ravens ranked as the top team overall but the Steelers outrank them over the last four weeks. It should be a great game as we have seen these teams go to the wire on several occasions. One chip on the home team in what should be another wild Ravens/Steelers game.

Steelers PICK Steelers 21 Ravens 20 Computer Projection HIT: Steelers 43 Ravens 23

Browns -6 1/2 Browns 33 Bucs 18 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Browns 22 Bucs 17

Whether we look at the whole season or just the last 4 weeks we see the same thing. Both teams should be able to run, but the Browns are the team that will be able to pass. The Bucs will face a pretty stiff pass D, one that has a decent pass rush combined with a pretty good secondary. The Browns are not a great team but they do keep their heads in the game. That should go a long way to covering a large spread in Cleveland. It's worth a lite play on the home team.

We have serious reservations about this one. The Jets can run and stop the run. That's all they can do this season, but it's what a team needs to do against K.C. The Chiefs figure to outgain them with a decent amount of passing yards but that doesn't amount to the big spread, even in Kanas City. Plus, we know Vick can play a pretty good game at times. That's something the Jets aren't used to from the QB position. We'll need an emotional breakdown from the Jets to get this one in. We'll risk a chip to see it happen.

Chiefs -9 Chief 29 Jets 13 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Chiefs 24 Jets 10

Dolphins -2 Dolphins 26 Chargers 23 Computer Projection HIT: Fins 37 Bolts 0

Ordinarily, we'd be calling this one a Jet Lag game, but with Daylight Savings Time it's much less a factor. These guys are essentially playing an hour later so we're not counting on that. We do like betting on teams that figure to win the rushing battle at home. The Fins are 4th best in that department while the Chargers are average at best againt the run. The Fins alo feature one of the best pass D's in football, so maybe they'll restrain the Chargers bread and butter. The Fins are a hot team playing at home. Even though we don't like betting against the well-coached Chargers, we'll play the chip.

Patriots +3 Patriots 29 Bronco 27 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Pats 43 Broncos 21

It's hard to figure this one out. We have Denver ranked higher in our Power Rankings, and they are the hottest team in the league. Still, all of our forecasts call it the Pats way, even our RECENT forecast. It's something about the Broncs getting yardage from their run game when it would be more efficient for them to get it passing. There is also the HFA, of course, and the turnovers. The algorythm treats turnovers lightly because they are so unpredictable, but we are talking about New England, who doesn't commit any. Over the last 4 weeks they lead the league in fewest turnovers. We'll need that to continue if we want the lite hit.

We are getting weird numbers from the forecast for this one. Our OFFICIAL one calls it a tie at 28-28, which essentially says take the Pants, but our RECENT games forecast says the Saints by 3, 30-27. It's almost as if the RECENT forecast is giving us the overtime winner. It might be a good game. We can't see the Pants stopping that Saints offense even at home, but Carolina's inconsistent passing game might look pretty good tonite against the porous Saints secondary. It should amount to decent scoring. We are projecting 56 points, so we'll make a minimum play on the OVER.

Saints/Panthers OVER 49 1/2 Saints 28 Panthers 28 Computer Projection MISS: Saints 28 Pants 10

Good Luck Everyone!

Last Week's Games