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| Saints -3 |
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| Saints 28 Ravens 24 Computer Projection |
| Plays for MNF |
| At first glance this game was puzzling just like last night's game, with the Ravens having the better numbers, and the system inexplicably pointing the Saints way. A closer look, however, uncovers an unusually high completion rate for Drew Brees and the Saints. The Saints complete a high percentage of passes anyway, over 70%, while the Ravens yield about the league average - 64%. At home, you would expect the Saints to have a good nite passing. Now the bad news. They're gonna need every passing yard they can get because we don't see them stopping the Ravens with that suspect and depleted secondary. There is precedence where teams can win the possession game over the Ravens, so the key is for the Saints to control the ball with that passing game. If they can do that, they'll win. We don't have a lot of confidence in this one, so we'll make one more minimum bet at EVEN odds and get out of this week. |
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| Plays for SNF |
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We haven't a clue as to why the GRIDLINE algorithm took the Giants tonite. The numbers are all Dallas. It almost looks like a typo. There are elements that adjust the numbers beforehand and work to influence the outcome during, but we can't figure it out without dissecting the computations. It may be that a few downgraded data, such as Schedule Strength, First Downs and Fumbles have worked together with the HFA to overwhelm the formula.
Anyway, some assistant better tell Tom Coughlin why he's in the stadium tonite. That's what assisted living is for. Sometimes those older men go into a room and forget why they went there. That red flag in his sock is there for a reason as well. A couple of weeks ago Coughlin blew any chance the Giants had when he adjusted his velcro shoes instead of grabbing the challenge flag. Tom, snap out of it, there's a football game to be played. |
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| Plays for Sunday late |
| This isn't going to be one of our more scientific blurbs. Frisco has to be glad to be home after jumping across the country for a couple of weeks. The Skins need to regroup after that embarrassment last week, and we don't think San Francisco is the place to do it. We checked on RG3. He's relatively okay, which means the coaches won't be inclined to do something right and start Colt McCoy. For those of us that need some type of statistical justification for our plays, the Niners figure to have the run game to themselves, and the Skins have thrown so many INTs that they are starting to show in game projections. This seems like a tough week so we'll keep the betting down. |
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| Plays for Sunday early |
| The Bucs are coming off a good, road victory. If that type of play continues we'll go down again, but we'll bet they don't pull it off twice in a row. These are two poor defenses. They both yield the highest number of points. The Bears give up more points than their numbers would indicate. If they concentrate, they shouldn't do that against the hard-luck Bucs. The Bucs, meanwhile, do give up a lot of yardage along with the points. Although they're getting better at pass D, it looks like the Bucs will want to cheat back. We'd like to think the Bears can take advantage of the light front. The weather people say it'll be rainy but not a weather game. It seems like both these teams either play or they don't. We hope they'll both come out ready to go, but what's the chances of that? Just the minimum here. |
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| This one figures to be a running ball game. Both teams are among the runningest teams in the league, with the Texans being THE runningest. Of the two teams, Houston has the better run D this year. It's just average but we expect them to fare well at home. Cincy's run D is just bad. The Bengals can pass if they have to but it's not really their game and the Texans have a semblance of a pass D. We haven't quite figured it out, but a turnover hurts Houston's opponents more than it hurts them. That's weird, but let's hope for a turnover laden game. Another minimum play on another team that got us last week. |
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Sigh. Another week, another losing bet against the Pack. We're trying to work a football computer system and these guys are playing basketball. Historically, Green Bay has been GRIDLINE's biggest nemisis. It's bad enough to miss when we bet against them, but we even miss on the rare occasions we take them. Last year our whole season started to unravel when we had a bet on heavily favored Green Bay and Rodgers gets hurt is the first quarter.
Rodgers has done some amazing things lately but he's essentially doing the passing tree. There has been zero pressure on him the last month, even from teams that have good pass rushes. The Vikes are another one of those teams. If there is an inkling of a pass rush the Vikes can work a run game that should tear the Packers defense apart and keep them in the game. We're just betting the pass rush will happen at times. That looks like a losing proposition so we'll keep our donation down to 1 chip. |
| Plays for Thursday nite |
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If you want to beat the Chiefs, you run the ball and stop the run. The Raiders are not suited to do either. The Chiefs are a slow-scoring team - sometimes we get the feeling Reid would rather pound his opponent with another run than actually score - but eventually they run out of field and have to score. We don't see the Raiders scoring against one of the best passing Ds in the league. That pretty much leaves the kick returns, but the Chiefs are 2nd returning kicks, while the Raiders are 29th defending them.
This is a suspicious looking line. We'd think it would be 10, even on the road, but despite the steam the line is pretty much holding. You wouldn't expect anything weird going on in a fairly high-profile game, but we're going to reduce this to a minimum play. We do have to lay 12/10 odds. |
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Good Luck Everyone!
