National Football League 2014 Season
GAMES OF WEEK 13
| Plays for MNF |
| With a good run D at home the Jets figure to be the ones running the ... Who are we kidding? We have to take the Jets because the system says so. Otherwise, it's a team that has slipped away from Rex Ryan. There's no concentration, no will to win, no need for courage. The Jets are starting a QB who's a mistake waiting to happen. The weatherman says it'll rain but relatively calm winds will keep it from being a weather game. Maybe he's wrong and the wind will pick up to over 20 mph. Wouldn't that be nice? We're just going to sacrifice this one to the football gods. We do that every once in awhile. Dont try this at home. |
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| Plays for SNF |
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We were going back and forth on this one. A point spread that started at Denver -2 has flipped to Kansas City -1. That 3-point spread movement left us with no help from the forecast, which has the Chiefs winning by 1. In other words, we're left to our own devices. Those devices show the good run D of Denver, and good protection for Manning. From a human perspective, we think a team needs to keep the ball away from Peyton and apply good pressure to him. We don't see that happening, even in K.C. |
| Plays for Sunday afternoon |
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These two teams are playing as well as we've ever seen them play. It should be a great game. It's the first time Brady and Rodgers have ever faced each other. In our RECENT, objective Power Ratings - where we rank each team in 26 categories - these teams are 1 and 2. Both teams will be able to pass. The Pats should be able to run. It's that running game vs. the Pack's home field advantage that should determine the winner. There's no deep analysis, here. We're going to bet two chips at 12/10 on the Patriots. |
| Plays for Sunday early |
| It's a good indicator when the forecast projects above average numbers across the board for one team, and below average numbers for the other. That's what we have for the Bills and Browns. Years ago, we upped what we call the Zoom Factor. It's a multiplier that - along with the HFA and Schedule Strength - works to expand the stats relative to the league norms. In this case, it expanded the Bills upward and the Browns downward. So in many respects, the key stat for this game is that component of the GRIDLINE algorithm: The Zoom Factor. From a 'capping angle, it's manifested in the Bills' completion rate being equal to the NFL average of 63%, while the Browns pct. is at 50. It's early, so we'll keep this one down to a lite play, but we have to play it at 12/10. |
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We like our picks to have the edge in total offense in our forecast, but we really like it when that edge is for the home team and when it's due to rushing yardage. Both defenses can be had, but these are two offensively challenged teams. At least the Vikes have an NFL calibre rushing game. The Pants have been fumbling and bumbling the past month. We don't know if that's good or bad but a team is bound to be more susceptable to concentration lapses on the road. The weatherman says it'll be windy, so that means it'll be either windy or calm. Just a chip, here. |
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This is a jet lag game. It's a team traveling coast to coast to play at 10am their time. It doesn't mean the team is going to be disoriented all or any part of the game, it just means that could happen because of the traveling. In this century, a minor blunder in the first half WILL cost you a TD. We don't go out of our way to bet these types of games but when the system points to the home team with any conviction we're in. There was a time years ago when we emailed our picks to customers and we'd always specify a Jetlag game, just as we're doing now, but we wouldn't spill the beans online because it was one of the bettor's best kept secrets. Then, a few years ago, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell blurted it out at a press conference and vowed to stop the scheduling practice. He didn't do that, and since nobody holds him accountable for anything he says, the practice continues.
If this does turn into a game we like the Ravens, anyway. They are our top team in our completely objective Power Ratings. We don't like betting against the well-coached Chargers with great playmakers who use the pass like the run, but the Ravens are well-coached, too, and they use the run like the run. Just a minimum play because we, too, have experienced a little turbulance with these noon games. |
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| Plays for Thursday nite |
| We looked at the numbers but we couldn't ee anything that would point to either team. We were kind of left to our human component. It would ordinarily be a 'no play' for us but it's Thursday night. It's the only game in town. Seattle does appear to be the team with the running game, and if we have to choose between Kap and Wilson we'll take Wilson. Still, it looks like this game will come down to a single turnover, and either team can make it. It should be a great game but for us it's just a chip. |
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| Plays for Thursday afternoon |
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All of our forecasts, OFFICIAL and otherwise, have the Cows winning by 3 or less. We have to wonder if either team can win by more than a FG. These are two good offenses going up against two average defenses. They both should be able to score. The Eags have played a much tougher schedule but other than that we just don't see any separation between the teams. That makes the point spread a little more attractive. It should be a great game, but we said that about the Eags/Pack. We'll never learn. Two chips. |
| Plays for Thanksgiving |
| We're pretty sure Detroit is the better team. They certainly have the better defense. It's a defense that, in addition to shutting down the Bears running game, should pick off a Chitown pass or two. Detroit picks off one pass for every 27 thrown. The league average is 40, and the Bears throw one for every 34 passes. That's what it will take to beat a big spread: Force Cutler to the air and pick him off. It's what we're basing the lite play on. |
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Good Luck Everyone!
