GAMES OF WEEK 14

We are posting a little early to avoid the late steam that may drive the spread up. We're already giving up more points than we have all season. We're pretty sure the bettors from Frisco or New Orleans would say that's unwise. We think if you're going to go to Lambeau to try to stop the Pack you better bring a running game and a good pass D. The Falcons have neither. The Birds can pass pretty well but they're going up against a Pack D that is 10th in Yards Allowed/Pass. It's a good secondary. Any other nite we'd double-up on this one but it's been a crazy week where some also-rans have surprised some teams in the thick of things. Plus, with the large point spread we'd have to be ahead by 22 points to escape the consequences of a consolation TD. When you're laying points you can't have a big enough lead. Let's just get out of this crazy week.

Packers -13 Packers 36 Falcons 23 Computer Projection MISS: Pack 43 Falcons 37

This is another case where the system may be going against the better team because of the HFA. We may have to adjust that parameter. In the meantime, the Chargers can stay with these guys if they find their way to the stadium. All San Diego does is pass, and the Patriots pass D isn't their strong suit. Defensively, the Chargers CAN get off the field. They yield the 4th fewest FDs. The Pats are the scoring-est team in the league but the Chargers 5th ranked pass D could slow them down. Nothing but the minimum this week.

Chargers +3 1/2 Patriots 25 Chargers 24 Computer Projection MISS: Pats 23 Bolts 14

Eagles +2 Eagles 28 Seahawks 23 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Hawks 24 Eags 14

Raiders +9 Raiders 20 49ers 20 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Raiders 24 49ers 13

Cardinals +3 (@12/10) Cardinals 22 Chiefs 17 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Cards 17 Chiefs 14

The Bengals are not going to scare anybody with their offense but they do hold onto the ball and Pittsburgh has been giving up big plays all year long. Cincy's defense has come on as a whole lately to join an always stingy secondary. We expect the Steelers to have some trouble scoring. This one cost 12/10.

Bengals -3 Bengals 27 Steelers 22 Computer Projection MISS: Pitt 42 Cincy 21

Browns +3 1/2 Colts 27 Browns 25 Computer Projection HIT: Colts 25 Browns 24

The Colts can really pass the ball but Cleveland's pass D is the strongest unit on the field. The Browns vanilla offense stubbornly adheres to a mediocre rushing attack but they might find the going a little easier against a Colt run D that gives up 4.5 yards/carry. Hopefully, this will be a slow scoring game, but if worse comes to worse maybe Manziel will come in for a late score.

Jaguars +5 1/2 Jaguars 22 Texans 22 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Texans 27 Jags 13

Betting on the Jaguars? Has this what it's come down to? It looks like either one of these teams is hit or miss with their drives. The Texans are a little better at everything except protecting the QB, where the Jags figure to dominate. As always, turnovers are key, but especially with the Texans. It's how they score. We may be hoping against hope, but if the Jags can hold onto the ball this is a team they can stay with at home.

These are two weak defenses. The Saints should prove to be unstoppable at home with that dynamic offense. The Panthers have played a bit better of late. running well and defending the run well, but an average pass D doesn't look like it can stop the Saints passing game and it doesn't look like the Pants can keep up with the scoring with just the run.

Saints -10 Saints 34 Panthers 22 Computer Projection MISS: Pant 41 Saints 10

Redskins +3 Redskins 25 Rams 24 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Rams 24 Skins 0

Back to the scene of one of our more bitter losses earlier this season as the offense-less Skins fell to the hapless Bucs. This time Colt McCoy starts for the Skins. We don't know why Redskins coack Jay Gruden sat McCoy after he led them to victory in Dallas - probably something to do with the huge investment in RG3 - but it's great to see the team with the proper starter. In the meantime, the Skins have been dropping games to some unspectacular opponents, and the Rams last week routed the most unspectacular team in the league, hence the point spread. It doesn't do much good to look that closely at the numbers for this one. We're betting on McCoy.

All of our forecasts are pointing at the Bears to win this game, which is kind of perplexing since the actual game stats don't really support them. We do project the Total Offense to go to Chicago. That's almost a requirement for us to take a dog. It seems the Bears' numbers are given a boost mostly because of the HFA and a big edge in Schedule Strength. The Cows have had one of the easiest schedules in the league. Again, as bettors its hard for us to see the edge in this one, but it's also hard to argue with a machine that just gave us an improbable Jets pick. It doesn't mean we have to bet a whole lot.

Bears +4 Bears 26 Cowboys 24 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Cows 41 Bears 28

Good Luck Everyone!

Last Week's Games