GAMES OF WEEK 15

Bears/Saints OVER 54 Bears 29 Saints 28 Computer Projection MISS: Saints 31 Bears 15

The Total for this game is 54. Is that for both teams? Can they make a number these teams won't reach? In all seriousness, these are two of the worse defenses in the league - maybe the two worst - but the weather should be taken into consideration for an outdoor game. The weatherman says it will rain. Rain doesn't mean much to us. Those receivers can get open on a wet field. Wind is a different story. That same weatherman says the wind should be around 10MPH, way under the grounding windspeed of over 20. Minimum bets are made for these kind of games.

Eags -4 Eagles 32 Cowboys 23 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Cows 38 Eags 27

The Cows are capable of running a dynamic, old style offense with punishing runs and damaging downfield passes, but the Eagles defense should have something to say about it. Those guys typically hold their opponents to a low completion percentage, just 58%. A lot of it's due to the 2nd best pass rush in the league. The Eags figure to have more time to throw the ball, with the Cows having one of the worst pass rushes in the league in front of an average secondary. The running games figure to be there for both teams, but the passing should go the Eags way. This play is supported by the RECENT forecast based on the last month's data, plus we've got the Eags at home. It's late in the season so we'll start upping the ante a little. A full 3 chips on the Eagles.

Patriots -7 1/2 Patriots 30 Dolphins 22 Computer Projection HIT: Pats 41 Fins 13

The OFFICIAL forecast calls this one close to the spread but we've been impressed by the Pats performance of late. Last week against the Chargers they dusted off the old zone blitz as a primary defense against the pass-happy Chargers, and the Chargers didn't even have the swing passes and TE curls that killed that defense in the 90's in their playbook. Our RECENT forecast and data shows two teams going in opposite directions, with the Dolphins sinking all the way to 23rd in the last month. If the Pats are going to execute and play smart we want to have a chip on them.

Colts -6 1/2 Colts 33 Texans 20 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Colts 17 Texans 10

We had a foul up listing the Colts as a 13 point favorite while they were only favored by a TD. At that line the game becomes a Best Bet the Colts way. We see a lot of passing from the top team in passing yardage going against the 28th pass defense in yardage. The RECENT data shows the Texans might get their running game going, but the passing yards for the Colts are still there.

Seems like yesterday when we lost this game in Oakland. It wasn't. It was three weeks ago. That was the one where we saw two blown PI calls that pretty much determined the point spread, although 'blown' might not be the right word. Again, it's useless to compare the stats of one of the worst teams in the league against one that's still in the hunt. The only real difference between this game and the one earlier is that this one's in KC. That's a pretty big difference.

Chiefs -10 Chiefs 28 Raiders 12 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Chiefs 31 Raiders 13

Browns -1 Browns 24 Bengals 19 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Bengals 30 Browns 0

Computer-wise, this one's about two evenly matched teams and the fact the Browns are playing at home. In reality, it's about Johnny Manziel. It should be interesting to see the Bengals throw every blitz package in the book at him. If nobody panics, the Browns should be able to hit some big plays Sunday. We'll bet a little on Johnny in his first start.

Panthers -3 1/2 Panthers 29 Bucs 20 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Pants 19 Bucs 17

The Panthers have discovered the run game lately. Before dismantling the Saints they posted over 180 yards in a loss to the Vikes. The Bucs have a decent rushing defense, but they are not the Cards. Without some pretty radical moves we don't think the Bucs will stop them. When the Bucs do sell out against the run, we have a pretty resourceful QB in Derek Anderson to make them pay. Make it a lite play on the road favorite.

We know what Green Bay does to weak pass D's at Lambeau, let's see how they do against a strong D in Buffalo. It's encouraging to see the Bills with the leading sack count in the league. Still, we've been disappointed by teams that had an advantage there on paper and didn't show it in the game. Plus, it's hard to believe the un-offensive Bills are going to outgain the explosive Pack. Maybe we'd risk more if the weather kicked in, but it looks to be a fine day.

Bills +4 Bills 28 Packers 24 Computer Generated BEST BET HIT: Bills 21 Pack 13

The Steelers are ranked higher in our Power Ratings mostly because they have a running game, but both these teams have passing attacks that pretty much make the running game moot. With two suspect pass defenses there should be balls in the air all day. At home and in the playoff hunt we expect good concentration from the Falcons. A lite play on the home team.

Falcons +3 Falcons 31 Steelers 28 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Pitt 27 Birds 20

Titans +3 Titans 22 Jets 20 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Jets 16 Titans 11

The Jets favored on the road? Who'da thunk it? Yeah, we know Mettenberger's out but is Locker really a drop off? In any case, this is going to be the Titans pass vs. the Jets rush. a couple of Mondays ago the Jets passed when they should have ran and it cost them the game, although they beat the spread. The system is going with the home team but this one will be about turnovers. It's a Best Bet but we're just hoping the Jets do Something stupid again.

We hit this one earlier this season but we had the Broncos in Denver. The Chargers did give them hell. Hopefully, the Bolts will have their blitz problems fixed for this game. This time, as the song goes, it's all about the pass. The Broncs have shown a dedication to the run but we don't expect that experiment to continue forever. We are probably looking for a backdoor cover, hence the smaller play.

Chargers +5 Chargers 24 Broncos 24 Computer Generated BEST BET MISS: Broncs 22 Bolts 10

The Rams have discovered a rushing game over the last month, but we shouldn't see much of it against one of the top run defenses in the league. The Cards just can't run, although they try. Unless there is some creative coaching, this is going to be a passing game. We remember making money off Shaun Hill back in the old Tampa Bay days with Warrick Dunn. We still like Shaun, he can be masterful, but we don't see Warrick Dunn behind him. Stanton has been doing an adequate job filling in for Palmer. Both defenses give up the same passing stats that the teams make, with the Cards completing slightly longer passes than the Rams are used to. It should be a close, close ball game, with the Rams being the hottest team out there coming off double shutouts against the Raiders and Washington. Needless to say, the Rams are stepping up in class. An edge in turnovers will win this one for either team. We'll take the points as the line has blown up, apparently on speculation.

Cardinals +6 Rams 23 Cardinals 19 Computer Projection HIT: Cards 12 Rams 6

Good Luck Everyone!

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