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| Broncos -3 (@12/10) |
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| Broncos 24 Bengals 21 Computer Projection |
| Plays for MNF |
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At 3 points the system hasn't taken a side but we like the Broncs in this one. Cincy does have a good secondary, and you'd think that and the HFA would be a good reason to take the Bengals, but Denver has found a running game of late. Over the last four weeks the Broncs are 2nd in rushing yardage. The Bengals also have a good run D (8th) but how would you like to have to concentrate on stopping the run against a Manning-led team. Call it a lite, two-chip play on the road favorite. |
| Plays for SNF |
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This game negates analysis because of the new QB in Zona. The Lindley kid wasn't even on the roster a few weeks ago. It doesn't look like he'll contribute much to the scoring but this is a low Total. We always try to have a reason for making a bet. Maybe we're wrong about the kid. If he does contribute, maybe he'll push the Over, if he doesn't, maybe the Seahawks will score more points. We do need the Hawks to score. As we've said on more than one occasion for these PrimeTime contests, it's the only game in town. |
| Plays for Sunday afternoon |
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These are the same two average defenses. They both give up 23 points per game, the league average. The Colts take the league's top passing offense into Dallas. It doesn't look like the Cowboys can stop them. They should get their points. The Cows, too, should get their offense going. It's an old, familiar, run and deep pass scheme that generates TDs. The big difference is punts. While the Colts figure to be unstoppable, their defense leads the league in forced punts. They seem to sell out on occasion, gambling points against stops. If they get a few stops, they should win the game. |
| Plays for Sunday early |
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| Plays for Saturday |
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The Skins can move the ball but they never seem to score the points they should. Last week, RG3 fumbled into the endzone instead of scoring the TD. That's what we're dealing with. The Eags figure to be inconsistent but big plays should keep them on top. The key for the Skins is to generate the proper number of points for the yardage they gain. Just take the points and quit being a bunch of fuck ups. |
| The Chargers can't run and Frisco can't pass. This should be hilarious. Add two stingy defenses and we're headed straight to OT. We're going to play a two-way 6 point Teaser here, adding 6 to the short 1 1/2 point spread to get the Chargers with 7 1/2, and adding 6 to the 41 point Total to take UNDER 47. We haven't done this lately. While Teasers are good looking bets, we have to hit both just to win like it was a single, side bet. It's like trying to hit a Parlay but it only pays 10/11 odds. |
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| Plays for Thursday nite |
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Another Primetime game, another pair of losing teams. Didn't the league office say something about flex scheduling? Actually, despite the records, these appear to be two evenly matched teams. With a little creativity from the coaches this could be a very entertaining game. Not so coincidentally, when teams have really poor records it's always because of the management.
We think we have the better team at home with the Jags. Nearly all the numbers are bad or unimpressive with these teams, but we did notice the Jags appear to have a pass rush. We also noticed the Jags are one of the best teams penalty-wise, both avoiding and forcing them. For the Titans, losing the penalty battle is usually symptomatic of another loss. The most impressive stat - to us anyway - is Schedule Strength. The Tits are 24th league wide, while the Jags are 12th in that category. It's almost as if the Jags are stepping down in class. Like a lot of bettors we don't like betting on inconsistent, losing teams especially with the draft looming, but these guys should behave on national TV. Going lite on the home team. |
Good Luck Everyone!
