GRIDLINE's Primetime Plays
National Football League 2015 Season

WEEK 01

	ATS Rec	Pct.	Chips Bet	Net Chips
Week 01	2-1-1	66%	4.3	.9
Season	2-1-1	66%	4.3	.9

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Plays for MNF (late game)

The 49ers offseason has been lampooned by everybody, and rightly so. Canning Harbaugh was one of the dumber moves we've seen in recent history. Some players seemingly retired out of sheer discontent. Many people feel the moves they have made are so stupid that the team has to be garbage this year. We halfway agree. The team has made some stupid moves, but that doesn't necessarily mean the team's going to be bad.

On the other side, the Vikings return virtually everybody, but is that a good thing? They are coming off a losing season. Maybe some changes are just what they needed. We'll go with the home underdog.

49ers +2 1/2

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HIT: 49ers 20 Vikes 3

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Plays for MNF

Turnovers are the bane of a gamblers existence. The Dallas/Giants game was going about as expected for us when the bottom dropped out just before halftime with a flurry of turnovers that sealed the point spread for the Giants. It didn't seal the victory, though. Coughlin made back-to-back blunders when the Giants had a goal-to-go situation late in the game. The first was the decision to call a pass play. They really just needed to burn the clock at that point in the game. The second was not going for it on the next play. When he kicked the FG, he gave the Cows 20 yards of field position AND he forced the Cows to beat him instead of attempting a drive for a FG. You could say he made a third blunder when he played the Prevent defense, but that's a common mistake that coaches depend on each other to justify. We pretty much called Coughlin's senility in our game capsule. In short, it was a good bet that went bad.

We can't go into deep analysis this early in the season. It's a QB-centric league in 2015. The Eagles may well be the superior team, but we like Ryan more than Bradford. There may be a million points scored tonite. The OVER is probably the better play, but flat bets are more fun, and the odds are such that we don't have to pay juice.

Falcons +3

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HIT: Birds 26 Eags 24

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Plays for SNF

That was a PUSH in our first bet of the 2015 season. It kinda looks like we were backdoored, but we look at it a different way. First off, when a beaten team gets the ball with over a minute left, it's more likely than not they'll score the consolation TD. Secondly, there are good bets that go bad, and bad bets that go good. Here, we made a bad bet that ended up in a PUSH. When you look at the scoring, Pittsburgh could easily have had their points even if they didn't score the consolation TD. The kicker left 6 points on the field, and the team left 4 more when they got penalized out of a sure TD. On the flip side, New England didn't have to recover the ball for a TD. If not for the strange stuff, the Steelers seemed like they were the right bet.

That still doesn't make us feel any better. A well-protected Roesthlisberger had time to launch a perfect pass to push us with 2 seconds left. Our heart really bleeds for the poor offshore books that played the Patriots -7 1/2 in Vegas late Thursday as they tried to lay off the heavy New England action (Yeah, right). If you're with one of the upstart operations you'd better watch Jorge doesn't try to drive his new Maserati into oblivion with your post up cash.

Cowboys -6

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MISS: Cows 27 Giants 26

This game is hard to figure. These two teams know each other well, and they usually play each other close. We know Dallas wants to run and we know the Giants have to pass. The Giants have the pass rush, but we figure that pass rush will be neutralized somewhat by the Cowboy run game. We think Dallas is going to win, but no sooner had we said the spread only comes into play a fifth of the time, it came into play Thursday.

We like to have something solid to go on when we make a bet, but there really isn't anything there. A team is more likely to lay a clunker on the road, but they don't have to.

The one thing we can focus on the coaching staffs. We know Coughlin has been slipping lately. His age apparently caught up to him in the Colts game last year when he basically cost the Giants the game. Garrett is going the other way. Learning. The Giants also have two new coordinators coming in. Although Coughlin and Spagnuola have worked together before, that has to be a little unsettling for the players. The Cows also have a new OC, but he must think he hit the jackpot walking into that Offensive line.

It's another weak analysis, but we're essentially hoping Eli doesn't overcome some poor coaching decisions. What can we say except what we always say, it's the only game in town. Also, if you're playing the Cows you may want to get in before it goes up to 7.

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Plays for Thursday nite (Season Opener)

The NFL is back, and we are, too! Everybody knows the season doesn't start without GRIDLINE.

Apparently, the season doesn't start without Tom Brady, either. After seven long months we get to see last year's top player start things off Thursday. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Steelers have to sit two of their starters, Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant. Leaguewide, two dozen players are suspended for week one, and the number would have been closer to 40 had players not been cut last Saturday. That's enough for an entire team. That's one or two every game. It's getting to the point where the league would be well-advised to include "Suspended" along with "Probable", "Questionable", "Doubtful" and "Out" on their Injury Report.

Anyway, we offer our thanks to Judge Richard Berman for vacating one suspension. We don't know if his decision was based on legal principles or not, but it does show he's a football fan.

Patriots -7

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PUSH: Pats 28 Pitt 21

As we said last season, Patriot games have been a thorn in our side for awhile now. Don't get us wrong, we're glad to be betting football again, we just wish it was Denver or Kansas City - someone we have historically had a bead on. Plus, this being a new season makes any game a risky proposition. Teams change from one year to the next. And not just players, teams change in coaching and management, too. Pitt has a new Defensive Coordinator, and the Pats have a new Special Teams coach.

We're going to go with the Pats minus the full TD. There's nothing particularly scientific here. We don't have any stats for 2015 yet, and we won't be fully going with the GRIDLINE computer system until week 04. We just feel that it's very difficult to win on the road against a good team, and we know point spreads only come into play a fifth of the time. Plus, Pittsburgh never has been a great road team. We remember saying "Do these guys need their mama?" one season. Finally, no analysis is complete without checking the weather. It's going to rain. We'd be plenty worried if the field was going to be saturated but it doesn't appear that it will, and there shouldn't be any wind. In other words, the teams won't be grounded.

That's not a very strong analysis. It'll get stronger by WEEK 04 when the system kicks in. We've said it before, early in the season is the oddsmaker's best chance to get ahead of us. We'll be there for PrimeTime, but don't expect us to bet more than a single chip on any game as we try to have fun and stay relatively even these first few weeks.

Visitors are encouraged to visit GRIDLINE's Amazing Churn Chart, accessable from the main menu. You'll see the coaching changes we mentioned along with many others throughout the league. At this early stage of the season, where there aren't any real past performances, the Churn Chart delivers the most valuable information you can get.

Good Luck Everyone!

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