The way we see it, the determining factor will be the rushing game. As much talk as there is about Brady and Gronkowski and that seasoned passing attack, the Pats run the ball at the league average, just over 40% of the time and at 4 yards/carry. We think they need to run the ball with some success, and we don't think they'll be able to do so consistently against a Seahawk defense that only allows 3.6 yards/carry. Defensively, the Pats are the same, right at the league average, while the Hawks feature the top rushing game in the league. Those guys run the ball most of the time, and at 5.3 yards a clip.
As for the Pats vaunted passing attack, it's not quite as vaunted as it has been in the past. It's still very good, but it's more about ball control than anything else. The Pats yards/completion is actually lower than the league average, but there are so many completions. We've talked about Seattle's pass D before. It could be the best the league has ever seen, and that's without a dominant pass rush. The Seahawks will have to keep those completions short, as they've done all year, by limiting the yards after catch. We think that without an effective running game there will just be too much pressure on the Pats short passing game. As for the Seahawks passing game, it's there to score. The Patriots do a great job of limiting opponent's completion percentage, but the Seahawks don't need a great completion ratio when their catches go for an amazing 12.9 yards. The league average is 11.4.
Belichick is bound to have more tricks up his sleeve. Carroll would do well to assign a member of his staff just to watch him. The ineligible receiver routine worked again against the Colts. Hopefully, Seattle has spent time in practice identifying laterals and the two offensive Ends.
We often say the Super Bowl is just another bet in a long line of bets and it is, but this analysis looks a lot like it did in last year's big game. We are compelled to make a larger play here. Call it a Heavy play on the Hawks.
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| Seahawks +1 |
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| Seahawks 22 Patriots 21 Computer Projecton |
